Microsoft News/MSN 50 state poll: 132.000 people polled, Biden leads swing states

[ElectionsGuy]

This is even junkier than the latest CNN and Fox News polls.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These are online polls, but FL and AZ and OH numbers are promising. Red state polls are meaningless

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden winning Louisiana? This is probably the worst "poll" I've ever seen.

Who knows?  The economy is in free fall.  This is looking more like 1932 when states flipped over to FDR to levels you would not believe.    In 1928, Hoover won Texas, and in 1932, he received only 11 percent of the vote.

Except people are much more polarized politically. Trump will be hurt by the economy, but not enough for him to lose states like Louisiana.

I certainly don't expect Trump to lose Louisiana, but based on its high minority population and the fact that it's getting hit hard by COVID, I could see the margin being within single digits.

[Tender Branson]

IA (March 1): Tie
IA (March 15): Biden+1
IA (now): Biden+6

NH (March 1): Biden+1
NH (March 15): Biden+2
NH (now): Biden+8

There might be some consolidation going on in those 2 states where he was weak: supporters of former opponents of Biden in the primary are now becoming Biden-supporters.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden winning Louisiana? This is probably the worst "poll" I've ever seen.

Who knows?  The economy is in free fall.  This is looking more like 1932 when states flipped over to FDR to levels you would not believe.    In 1928, Hoover won Texas, and in 1932, he received only 11 percent of the vote.

Except people are much more polarized politically. Trump will be hurt by the economy, but not enough for him to lose states like Louisiana.

I certainly don't expect Trump to lose Louisiana, but based on its high minority population and the fact that it's getting hit hard by COVID, I could see the margin being within single digits.

And closer to today, that's what happened in 1988 and then 1992 with economic troubles in the Farm Belt and the oil states.  Louisiana was one of them.  Biden is highly unlikely to pick up any of these states, but he can make significant inroads--and certain downstream offices should be targeted.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The states to watch out for is OH and KY, if its truly a wave, McConnell will lose like Bevin in an upset.

TX has failed in recruiting Castro bros in Senate race, it's time to move on.

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana:
Biden 47
Trump 44

Whatever you say, fam.

I recently saw a poll in which Trump approval in Louisiana was at 50%. The pattern may be valid even if this poll is inaccurate.

COVID-19 has ravaged Louisiana as it has ravaged few other states, and the Democratic Governor gets good marks. Collapses happen, and strange things happen in collapses. Louisiana is different from the rest of the Mountain and Deep South in having a large Catholic population whose Catholicism fits a well-entrenched ethnic culture (Cajuns). Cajuns did start going from D to R around twenty years ago, but I can see why that could reverse. 

Let's put it this way: The Pope, dammit, has given far better guidance to Americans about COVID-19 than does Trump. The Catholic Church has its own TV channel that reaches anyone who wants it... and when the Pope tells people to attend Mass virtually instead of in person, he makes a point about many other things. 

The real warning to anyone is that Trump is out of step with Americans. We are ready as a nation to endure the economic realities of the 1930's but with high technology that takes away some of the sting out of the hard times so that we can have less mass death. We may not be as different as a people as those who remembered Pearl Harbor. We are able to give up much to save uncounted American lives.

[pbrower2a]

Anyway, this looks like trash (Biden winning LA, MS, by more than Texas?)

Some state polls may be junk, because it's online polling.

For Southern states, Mason-Dixon polls are the better option.

But Trump is currently in a disastrous shape.

I already said what I need to about Louisiana in the prior poll.

All polling distorts, and on-line polling tends to get younger, more prosperous, more educated people. Ethnic minorities? Adjusting to income, I would expect that ethnic minorities are as likely as whites to be on line. So this poll may understate the older, poorer, less-educated people in some states. Even so, this polling may show what a collapse looks like. It could be more a portent than anything else.

I see evidence elsewhere that support for President Trump is in collapse. Ruling out the elder Bush, who lost much support to Ross Perot who challenged him from the center, few of us can know what such a collapse looks like for a Republican. That would be Dewey in 1948 -- when polling was primitive, and the editorial staff could complacently run off the headline "DEWEY WINS" in ignorance of the Dewey collapse and Truman surge that just about everyone had. 

...but back to my suspicion: Trump could be losing Catholic votes other than those of Louisiana Cajuns. I have never known many Cuban-Americans and I have never been in Florida... but I would guess that they are firmly Catholic. Given a conflict between the Pope and the President on COVID-19, one may want to know how (largely Catholic) Cuban-Americans go. Polish-Americans and Italian-Americans are swing votes in several Northern states, especially Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pope or President? With Obama there was rarely a conflict.   

I do not need to be a Catholic to more trust the Pope on COVID-19 than the President. The Pope defers to science over ritual. He wants Catholics to attend Mass when such is safe.       

[Can't Bear]

[*pretends it is a real poll*]

[DrScholl]

These numbers would correspond with Biden heavily winning the white educated vote by the margin that CNN showed. In states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have higher black electorates than the national average it would be possible for Biden to surge in those places if white educated voters were to swing across the board. The educated white voter still is a necessary demographic for Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi. A shift of even a few points with those voters plus the black electorate voting the same as it always does makes for a very different ball game.

That's not to say that this will actually happen, but that it is plausible in the event that Republicans collapse with the educated white vote.

[Red Willow]

I needed this laugh. In fairness, maybe these polls are from some alternate universe where Biden was the 2008 nominee.

[ProudModerate2]

AZ (March 1): 45-44 Trump
AZ (March 15): 45-44 Biden
AZ (April 9): 48-42 Biden

WI (March 1): Biden +4
WI (March 15): Biden +5
WI (now): Biden +10

IA (March 1): Tie
IA (March 15): Biden+1
IA (now): Biden+6


NH (March 1): Biden+1
NH (March 15): Biden+2
NH (now): Biden+8

The trends identified above is what we should be concentrating on for this poll.
And what I see, can only be described as pure serenity.

[Devils30]

Trump may be in trouble but he is not losing LA, MS, SC period.

[libertpaulian]

Trump may be in trouble but he is not losing LA, MS, SC period.

Trump could win SC by a smaller margin than last time, though, which would help drag Cunningham over the finish line.

[Red Willow]

These numbers would correspond with Biden heavily winning the white educated vote by the margin that CNN showed. In states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have higher black electorates than the national average it would be possible for Biden to surge in those places if white educated voters were to swing across the board. The educated white voter still is a necessary demographic for Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi. A shift of even a few points with those voters plus the black electorate voting the same as it always does makes for a very different ball game.

That's not to say that this will actually happen, but that it is plausible in the event that Republicans collapse with the educated white vote.

If these polls (LA/MS) were anywhere near accurate he would winning quite substantially in the TX poll. These polls are a joke.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These numbers would correspond with Biden heavily winning the white educated vote by the margin that CNN showed. In states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have higher black electorates than the national average it would be possible for Biden to surge in those places if white educated voters were to swing across the board. The educated white voter still is a necessary demographic for Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi. A shift of even a few points with those voters plus the black electorate voting the same as it always does makes for a very different ball game.

That's not to say that this will actually happen, but that it is plausible in the event that Republicans collapse with the educated white vote.

If these polls (LA/MS) were anywhere near accurate he would winning quite substantially in the TX poll. These polls are a joke.

They're online polling and they dont even poll Senate races, that's why they're not all that accuratel

[afleitch]

Olds, as in actual olds, not boomer olds seem to love Biden in this poll. I think that's shown up in other polls too.

[Tender Branson]

These polls definitely need some backup from Mason-Dixon in the South and Marist, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA elsewhere.

Trump is currently in a horrible shape and voters want nothing more than to kick his ugly butt out of the White House.

Americans, only half a year left until this buffoon is history !

[OneJ]

What's even odder about this poll is when you look at state results by AA, most of the states show Biden's support among Black voters in the 70s and Trump support in the 20s.

[DrScholl]

These numbers would correspond with Biden heavily winning the white educated vote by the margin that CNN showed. In states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have higher black electorates than the national average it would be possible for Biden to surge in those places if white educated voters were to swing across the board. The educated white voter still is a necessary demographic for Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi. A shift of even a few points with those voters plus the black electorate voting the same as it always does makes for a very different ball game.

That's not to say that this will actually happen, but that it is plausible in the event that Republicans collapse with the educated white vote.

If these polls (LA/MS) were anywhere near accurate he would winning quite substantially in the TX poll. These polls are a joke.

Whatever. I was just making point that if white educated voters do vote Democratic by over 60% like the CNN poll suggested that states like Louisiana and Mississippi would look vastly different than they have before. I didn't say one way or another that the poll was accurate, just that a seismic shift in white educated voters could look like this poll.

Again, I didn't say one way or another that the poll was accurate, just that a seismic shift in white educated voters could look like this poll.

[heatcharger]

These numbers would correspond with Biden heavily winning the white educated vote by the margin that CNN showed. In states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have higher black electorates than the national average it would be possible for Biden to surge in those places if white educated voters were to swing across the board. The educated white voter still is a necessary demographic for Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi. A shift of even a few points with those voters plus the black electorate voting the same as it always does makes for a very different ball game.

That's not to say that this will actually happen, but that it is plausible in the event that Republicans collapse with the educated white vote.

If these polls (LA/MS) were anywhere near accurate he would winning quite substantially in the TX poll. These polls are a joke.

Whatever. I was just making point that if white educated voters do vote Democratic by over 60% like the CNN poll suggested that states like Louisiana and Mississippi would look vastly different than they have before. I didn't say one way or another that the poll was accurate, just that a seismic shift in white educated voters could look like this poll.

Again, I didn't say one way or another that the poll was accurate, just that a seismic shift in white educated voters could look like this poll.

And once again, I didn't say one way or another that the poll was accurate, just that a seismic shift in white educated voters could look like this poll.

There it is three times so that you don't have to come back and try to chastise me with "JUNK POLL!!"

Why are you so weird?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent winning LA, TX, MT, and probably not OH and IA. The Dems are favored in AZ and FL as wave insurance, but this is online polls and they should be considered such

[Tender Branson]

Looks like they are constantly polling ...

It says "8 hours ago" and some state numbers changed compared to yesterday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

[Tender Branson]

Map update:

The Green states are within 2%.

30% shades: 2-5% lead
50% shades: 5-10% lead
80% shades: 10%+ lead

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

MS,UT, IN, MO and WVA arent going D