Microsoft News/MSN 50 state poll: 132.000 people polled, Biden leads swing states

[pbrower2a]

Austin, Texas Area Code day (5/12).

Trump up 10+
Trump up 5-9
Trump up 1-4
tie (white)
Biden up 1-4
Biden up 5-9

Biden up 10 or more -- no need to color these in, is there?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are online polls, they arent scientific polls

[pbrower2a]

They have started polling again ...

Obviously, the results remain about 8-10% too Democratic/Biden in each state.

These polls were only relevant when the Coronavirus wasnt contained, we are seeing a narrowing of polls again, TX is not going Dem with Beto and Hegar

Austin, Texas Area Code day (5/12).

Trump up 10+
Trump up 5-9
Trump up 1-4
tie (white)
Biden up 1-4
Biden up 5-9

Biden up 10 or more -- no need to color these in, is there?

Trump still loses.

[GlobeSoc]

The same polls predicted a landslide loss for Trump in May 2916, they arent reptible polls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKC21wDarBo

[morgieb]

DOMINATING!

(obviously I'm aware this is junk, just let me have my fun goddamnit)

[Lief 🗽]

These are some tremendous numbers, thank you for bringing them to our attention TB. Those jokers at CNN could learn a thing or two from these folks.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Trump isnt losing MS and LA

[pbrower2a]

Yeah Trump isnt losing MS and LA

He can if a significant number of white voters break the usual "tribal" pattern of voting for the Louisiana White People's Party and the Mississippi White People's Party (which the Republican Party is for all practical purposes in those two states).

Approval for Republican Presidents has generally been overwhelming and started that way for Trump, but it seems to be going "middling".  I am not going to predict a further trend that takes Trump approval numbers into the low-to-middle forties and disapproval into the middle fifties in which case Trump loses these two states, but such is possible.

I am careful to not extrapolate trends, but results like those shown on the map

(1) seem to be going the same way and in the same magnitude in all states, and
(2) look like the early stages of an electoral collapse.

OK. Contemplate the other side, when an incumbent Republican incumbent seems to have a lot of things going for him. So let's say that we see such numbers as

CA  44/54
CT  46/51
IL   46/50
MD 44/49
NM 48/48
WA 45/52

approval/disapproval in reputable polls. Do you think that the President will get re-elected? Well, he might have a chance to win New Mexico, but having a chance to win any of those states will depend upon a surge in support in those states that one might dismiss as "It's California" or "It's Illinois". The Republican nominee for President could still win while losing every one of those states.

This polling suggests a Trump collapse. Trump may have gotten with some scummy and erratic behavior when it wasn't killing people... but when it causes mass death as does a bungled war one can almost expect a collapse of support. Strange things happen in electoral collapses, and we are starting to see such. If you saw that support for Jimmy Carter was shaky in , of all places, Massachusetts, wouldn't you see Carter in trouble?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These are online polls

[Tender Branson]

Current polling from Tuesday, minus the 10%-D/Biden-bias filter:

MT, AK, MO, IN, WV, SC, LA and MS are still tighter than the conventional wisdom - despite that 10% bias filter.

[🥥🌴]

Current polling from Tuesday, minus the 10%-D/Biden-bias filter:

MT, AK, MO, IN, WV, SC, LA and MS are still tighter than the conventional wisdom - despite that 10% bias filter.

You should use a 15% or 20% filter.

[Tender Branson]

Current polling from Tuesday, minus the 10%-D/Biden-bias filter:

MT, AK, MO, IN, WV, SC, LA and MS are still tighter than the conventional wisdom - despite that 10% bias filter.

You should use a 15% or 20% filter.

No, 10% is OK because below the 50-state poll they also track daily Trump approvals which are 37-60 according to MSN/Microsoft.

In reality, they are closer to 47-50 right now.

A 15% or 20% filter would be too much.

[🥥🌴]

Current polling from Tuesday, minus the 10%-D/Biden-bias filter:

MT, AK, MO, IN, WV, SC, LA and MS are still tighter than the conventional wisdom - despite that 10% bias filter.

You should use a 15% or 20% filter.

No, 10% is OK because below the 50-state poll they also track daily Trump approvals which are 37-60 according to MSN/Microsoft.

In reality, they are closer to 47-50 right now.

A 15% or 20% filter would be too much.

I understand, but I think a 10% filter is too Biden-friendly, except for the southern states, incl. Virginia.

[Tender Branson]

They have now removed the 50-state Trump vs. Biden polling from their site ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

Probably to look at their methodology ?

Yesterday, Biden was leading MN for example by 62-30 in their „poll“.