Microsoft News/MSN 50 state poll: 132.000 people polled, Biden leads swing states

[Tender Branson]

As ridiculous as this poll is, let me take a second to brag cry about Tennessee being the reddest state in the nation in this!

Now ID is the reddest state on their map (T+21), while TN is "only" T+17 ...

Anyway:

This 50-state rolling poll was already very dubious from the start (especially the southern results, but also AK or MT).

Now it's totally meaningless, because they have revised even old results from March 15 ... making comparisons or trendlines useless too.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The polls were off because maybe Trump is doing a decent job now, getting the country back from the Pandemic, that's why his supporters are coming out to fight for the country to reopen.

Polls lie.

[pbrower2a]

The polls were off because maybe Trump is doing a decent job now, getting the country back from the Pandemic, that's why his supporters are coming out to fight for the country to reopen.

Polls lie.

Polls do not lie. Pollsters can manipulate polls with loaded questions (the infamous push polls that, mercifully, seem to have died off). Pollsters can select respondents in ways that distort a polling result (let us say, using landlines only).

More significantly, all polls go obsolete. Opinions can swing wildly over time, and political cultures can change due to demographic shifts. Arizona and Texas are getting lots of Californians escaping the high rents of coastal California (at this point I would rather live in Prescott, Arizona than in San Francisco or Phoenix over Los Angeles)  and have fast-growing Mexican-American electorates that Donald Trump turns cold toward him. Just think of how surprised many of us were in 2000 as the networks called West Virginia, long a union stronghold that invariably went D in all but Republican blowouts, in the close election of that year. Born-again Christians were leading the Mountain and Deep South toward the Right.

Nationwide I see voters under 40 about 20% more D than R while voters over 55 are about 5% more R than D. Over four years, because the people who quit voting due to death are largely over 55 and the new voters are largely under 40, imply about a 1.5% shift away from Republicans nationwide if nothing else changes. Trump is not winning if that is the only effect on American politics. That shift alone delivers Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida D -- and if Florida doesn't get him, Arizona and North Carolina will. 

Donald Trump has encouraged people to do things that can get them hurt.  We shall see how that works in November. Still, he was never in a strong position for getting re-elected, and although I had a large range of potential results for the 2020 Presidential election those ranged from very close Trump wins if I stretched things to a landslide loss. I could see the Democrat winning anything from about 260 to 420 losses, with the mean result about 340 electoral votes for the Democrat. Trump could win if everything went right for him.

He gets poor marks for COVID-19. Just think about it... didn't the movie studios and major-league sports largely shut down what are usually highly-profitable activities just to avoid big trouble from COVID-19? There's a great white shark patrolling the beach for human prey, and you are going to close the beach. There's a bear in the woods of a popular state park, and people going into the woods are disappearing without a trace until someone finds evidence of man-eating, bear-style. You close that park! A sex offender has been throwing parties for kids, and kids start complaining about molestation. You are the chief of police and you are going to investigate... and likely make an arrest.

Life is not going on as normal. Maybe we cannot blame Trump for that, but we can certainly fault him for doing much wrong. Medical professionals, most State governments and for-profit businesses are ahead of Trump in addressing COVID-19.  The closest states to me that have no stay-at-home orders are Iowa and (I think) Georgia. I'm not going to either state to have a little fun that might end up killing me. I'm 64, and I want to outlast this horrible disease. All but one of my grandparents lived into their eighties (the other died of complications of diabetes at 67, and I do not have that), and I want to follow the other three. 

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

MSNBC polls have Trump at 46/51 approvals, the same as he had in April 2019, which they show on Meet the Press

[wbrocks67]

MSNBC polls have Trump at 46/51 approvals, the same as he had in April 2019, which they show on Meet the Press

MSNBC doesn't do their own polls, you need to stop just making stuff up in most of your posts

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

MSNBC polls have Trump at 46/51 approvals, the same as he had in April 2019, which they show on Meet the Press

MSNBC doesn't do their own polls, you need to stop just making stuff up in most of your posts

It was on Meet the Press

[wbrocks67]

I think y'all broke it. It hasn't been updated since Monday now

[Alben Barkley]

Biden's leading Louisiana and Montana in this poll, and Trump only has a single digit lead under 50% in West Virginia.

I'm gonna guess that this poll is flawed to say the least. Probably there weren't enough people polled in many of these states to get a reliable sample.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

All it takes for Biden is to flip back WI/PA/MI and win CO, NV, NM, MN and NH and 279 and he will do that. The South is poll watching for Congressional elections,  that's what happened in Gov races in 2018, they replicated the EC blue wall

[Bidenworth2020]

Because we all deserve a good laugh--

Biden- 468 EV's
Trump- 70 EV's

[Tender Branson]

Because we all deserve a good laugh.

Yeah, it seems their "polls" are off by about 10 points (or more) in most states.

But it would still be good if we got more polls from other pollsters, for MS or LA, or MT or AK.

[Politician]

Lol, WV. Did Democrats nominate a #populist or something?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because we all deserve a good laugh--

Biden- 468 EV's
Trump- 70 EV's

That's a pretty aesthetically pleasing map though.

[Tender Branson]

Microsoft’s 50-state polling is way off.

Here is why:

If you look at the daily Trump approval rating chart below the 50-State President poll and 50-state Congressional Election map, you’ll see that Trump currently has a 35-62 approval rating.

The RCP average is 44-51 though, which means Microsoft’s state polls are off by around 10%, or 10% too high for Biden on average.

Not for all states, but for most states certainly.

For example, if they show Biden leading in FL by 13 ... he probably leads by 3-4 in reality.

[Tender Branson]

Microsoft’s 50-state polling is way off.

Here is why:

If you look at the daily Trump approval rating chart below the 50-State President poll and 50-state Congressional Election map, you’ll see that Trump currently has a 35-62 approval rating.

The RCP average is 44-51 though, which means Microsoft’s state polls are off by around 10%, or 10% too high for Biden on average.

Not for all states, but for most states certainly.

For example, if they show Biden leading in FL by 13 ... he probably leads by 3-4 in reality.

If you subtract the 10% from their April 30 map in each state, you get the following map:

And it doesn't look that bad anymore.

[wbrocks67]

if anything, it's good for trends. and the trend does not look good for Trump

[Tender Branson]

I wrote an E-Mail to Microsoft/MSN and told them their polling methodology is completely off (by around 10% too pro-Biden) and that they need to review it, because it's a joke.

Let's see if they respond or change it ...

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I wrote an E-Mail to Microsoft/MSN and told them their polling methodology is completely off (by around 10% too pro-Biden) and that they need to review it, because it's a joke.

Let's see if they respond or change it ...

News story, Dems arent contesting UT, MS and LA

[Tender Branson]

Microsoft needs to hire SurveyUSA or Mason-Dixon to conduct their monthly 50 states poll.

They have enough money and would get good results, not crappy ones like with their current "pollster".

[pbrower2a]

Collapses happen in Presidential elections. The amazing thing is that the election looked close early this year. Collapses can happen at any time.

The only good thing for the President is that stay-at-home orders, often in swing states, prevent mass rallies against the President. I'm not sure that that will be an adequate help. 

It's perception. We expect our President to lead. If he lacks the technical solutions he wisely turns the technical (or in this case medical) questions to people who know what they are doing. The President has been advocating that people do things that will make the disease more dangerous. 

[wbrocks67]

the last update was April 30, is it broke?

[Tender Branson]

the last update was April 30, is it broke?

It is more likely they wait until May 15 or May 30 for their new polling.

Their previous releases were March 1, March 15, March 30 and April 30.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The same polls predicted a landslide loss for Trump in May 2916, they arent reptible polls

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These polls were only relevant when the Coronavirus wasnt contained, we are seeing a narrowing of polls again, TX is not going Dem with Beto and Hegar

[Tender Branson]

They have started polling again ...

Obviously, the results remain about 8-10% too Democratic/Biden in each state.