Microsoft News/MSN 50 state poll: 132.000 people polled, Biden leads swing states

[Tender Branson]

HUGE data set.

Individual state results here:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

They polled 132.000 people in 3 waves (March 1, March 15 and April 9).

Methodology

Microsoft News and Microsoft Research have partnered to conduct quick reaction and tracking polls to learn more about the sentiment, knowledge and expectations around the 2020 Elections. The Microsoft News Poll uses online opt-in polls, collected from a random sample of American adults, to produce statistically valid results. In these surveys, we collected 132,097 responses from March 1 to April 9 using tools from polling firm CivicScience. We then analyzed the results to model how demographic groups answered each question, based on age, gender, race, education, location, and party identification. Answers were projected onto the estimated distribution of those demographic groups. The method is as accurate as traditional polling methods, and in this survey produced a margin of error of +- 5 percentage points

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/poll-key-swing-states-of-florida-pennsylvania-wisconsin-and-michigan-leaning-toward-biden/ar-BB1292v0

[Tender Branson]

Trump really collapsed in several states between the March 15 and April 9 polling rounds.

[Bidenworth2020]

They have Trump losing Hawaii 85-9 LMAO

Anyway, this looks like trash (Biden winning LA, MS, by more than Texas?)

[Tender Branson]

AZ (March 1): 45-44 Trump

AZ (March 15): 45-44 Biden

AZ (April 9): 48-42 Biden

[Tender Branson]

They have Trump losing Hawaii 85-9 LMAO

Anyway, this looks like trash (Biden winning LA, MS, by more than Texas?)

Odd, but other polls have also shown Trump totally being destroyed in Hawaii recently.

At least his favorable rating.

[Bidenworth2020]

They have Trump losing Hawaii 85-9 LMAO

Anyway, this looks like trash (Biden winning LA, MS, by more than Texas?)

Odd, but other polls have also shown Trump totally being destroyed in Hawaii recently.

At least his favorable rating.

I haven't seen a poll of Hawaii since, like, ever.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, this looks like trash (Biden winning LA, MS, by more than Texas?)

Some state polls may be junk, because it's online polling.

For Southern states, Mason-Dixon polls are the better option.

But Trump is currently in a disasterous shape.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

African-Americans in ID and UT vote Trump ...

On the other hand, how many AAs are there ?

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Uncle Joe winning Montana, Louisiana, and Mississippi would be nice, but no.

[Bidenworth2020]

BTW:

African-Americans in ID and UT vote Trump ...

On the other hand, how many AAs are there ?

It seems like this polling has Trump doing better with african-Americans depending on whether they are a smaller share of the state's population or not.

[pbrower2a]

Uncle Joe winning Montana, Louisiana, and Mississippi would be nice, but no.

Strange things happen in political collapses. One nationwide poll for CNN had Biden up 11 on Trump, which is probably a bigger margin than Reagan seemed to have on Carter at this point in 1980. The margin became Reagan 51-Carter 41. Reagan won lots of states then reliably Democratic in all but Republican blowouts -- like Arkansas and Massachusetts.

Montana? Not so preposterous. Clinton won it in 1992, and Obama came close to winning it in 2008. Louisiana? Mississippi? The African-American populations are large enough that if a significant part of the white vote gives up the tribal voting to which it is accustomed (see also Georgia), then a Democrat can win the state. Louisiana has experienced COVID-19 harder than any state except New York... and Trump could get the blame for that.

The death tolls for COVID-19 are a national disgrace, and if given a choice where the plague has hit hardest, people are more likely to blame Trump than Democratic politicians who as a rule acted more swiftly and decisively than did Trump and most Republican politicians. (OK, Scott in VT and Baker in MA did fine, and I am surprised about DeWine in Ohio). Do the job, and do it well, and you will not get the blame. The death tolls are beginning to look like deaths from combat. Nobody thought until recently that being an employee of the New York subway system was hazardous duty, but it became that when the Angel of Death became a rider on each subway car and gave an unwelcome tip to subway workers and many passengers -- a dangerous disease that could kill them.   The Detroit Police Department has a tough enough time with violent offenders, but COVID-19 has became far more dangerous to the police force. Does anyone want to guess what it is doing with airline flight crews?

COVID-19 is the President's of Chernobyl. 

[jdk]

Looks like it's a voluntary sample poll- not really a good way to get accurate numbers

[Skye]

Louisiana:
Biden 47
Trump 44

Whatever you say, fam.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Coronavirus has doomed Trump's reelection prospects and he is gonna lose badly

[Tender Branson]

Louisiana:
Biden 47
Trump 44

Whatever you say, fam.

Those of course are off, but we need to look at their earlier polling waves too (Trump ahead).

Biden could also be a better fit for the South compared to Hillary. He’s not such a scarecrow to Whites as she was.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden can win SC, that's the only Deep South state that Biden can win, it's a Carolina

[Brittain33]

BTW:

African-Americans in ID and UT vote Trump ...

On the other hand, how many AAs are there ?

It’s Mia Love + Richard Pryor from “Moving.”

[wbrocks67]

Some states are off sure, but it's still an interesting data point with so many interviews and there are just as many other states that make sense. Plus, if anything it's useful to see how views have changed since the virus began.

[Tender Branson]

Someone needs to add these 150 results to the database ...

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

These are online polls that shows Biden ahead, they're not scientific, but Trump continue to have trouble in Latino states of AZ and FL. They dont even poll Senate races

[AGA]

Biden winning Louisiana? This is probably the worst "poll" I've ever seen.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden winning Louisiana? This is probably the worst "poll" I've ever seen.

Who knows?  The economy is in free fall.  This is looking more like 1932 when states flipped over to FDR to levels you would not believe.    In 1928, Hoover won Texas, and in 1932, he received only 11 percent of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

The map from the latest wave is basically this:

Strong: 10%+ leads
Lean: 5-10% leads
Tossup: 0-5% leads (which is the margin of error for each state)

LA, MS, SC and MO stick out, but Trump has led by as much as 10% in MO and 9% in SC in the first and second waves of polling on March 1 and March 15 ...

[AGA]

Biden winning Louisiana? This is probably the worst "poll" I've ever seen.

Who knows?  The economy is in free fall.  This is looking more like 1932 when states flipped over to FDR to levels you would not believe.    In 1928, Hoover won Texas, and in 1932, he received only 11 percent of the vote.

Except people are much more polarized politically. Trump will be hurt by the economy, but not enough for him to lose states like Louisiana.

[Tender Branson]

WI (March 1): Biden +4

WI (March 15): Biden +5

WI (now): Biden +10