If Biden wins in 2020, how will 2022 midterms look like?

[Gracile]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

She won by over 8 points in 2008 and outperformed Obama. She barely lost in 2014, only by 1 point, despite the R wave. She's a pretty good canidate. If she were to run against Tillis in 2020, the race would be tilt if not lean D

She's dead.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

She won by over 8 points in 2008 and outperformed Obama. She barely lost in 2014, only by 1 point, despite the R wave. She's a pretty good canidate. If she were to run against Tillis in 2020, the race would be tilt if not lean D

She's dead.

Just because she hasn't been politically active for 6 years doesn't means he would be a good canidate if she came back into the public spotlight. She would be more than just a Bresden. Don't underestimaete her and call her "dead" just because she has been absent for a few years.

[Roll Roons]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

She won by over 8 points in 2008 and outperformed Obama. She barely lost in 2014, only by 1 point, despite the R wave. She's a pretty good canidate. If she were to run against Tillis in 2020, the race would be tilt if not lean D

She's dead.

Just because she hasn't been politically active for 6 years doesn't means he would be a good canidate if she came back into the public spotlight. She would be more than just a Bresden. Don't underestimaete her and call her "dead" just because she has been absent for a few years.

She literally died last October of a virus that she got from a tick bite. https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/28/former-north-carolina-senator-kay-hagan-dies-060172

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

She won by over 8 points in 2008 and outperformed Obama. She barely lost in 2014, only by 1 point, despite the R wave. She's a pretty good canidate. If she were to run against Tillis in 2020, the race would be tilt if not lean D

She's dead.

Just because she hasn't been politically active for 6 years doesn't means he would be a good canidate if she came back into the public spotlight. She would be more than just a Bresden. Don't underestimaete her and call her "dead" just because she has been absent for a few years.

She literally died last October of a virus that she got from a tick bite. https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/28/former-north-carolina-senator-kay-hagan-dies-060172

Oh I didn't realize she actually died that was embarrasing. She was such a great senator though.

[Badger]

I know this is a politics forum and we love stargazing. But the genuine answer here is who the hell knows. Way too far out , and God only knows what will be going on in the world then.

The best one can say is midterms 10 to go against the party in power, though there are a few traditionally Democratic states, albeit ones trending Republican, where Republican Senators will be up for re-election.

Otherwise, ask me two years from now.

[2016]

I know this is a politics forum and we love stargazing. But the genuine answer here is who the hell knows. Way too far out , and God only knows what will be going on in the world then.

The best one can say is midterms 10 to go against the party in power, though there are a few traditionally Democratic states, albeit ones trending Republican, where Republican Senators will be up for re-election.

Otherwise, ask me two years from now.

We all know it's far out but unless Biden gets a 9/11 Type Moment in his first term his Party will lose Seats because that is a common thing well because it happened so often.

[Sharpshooter]

I know this is a politics forum and we love stargazing. But the genuine answer here is who the hell knows. Way too far out , and God only knows what will be going on in the world then.

The best one can say is midterms 10 to go against the party in power, though there are a few traditionally Democratic states, albeit ones trending Republican, where Republican Senators will be up for re-election.

Otherwise, ask me two years from now.

We all know it's far out but unless Biden gets a 9/11 Type Moment in his first term his Party will lose Seats because that is a common thing well because it happened so often.

Exactly, you need around a 60% approval rating just to stay par and avoid losing any seats.

Obama averaged 47.9% throughout his presidency and Obama was far more liked than Biden was.  Biden's chances of having an approval rating sub 50% come November 2022 are going to be quite high therefore.

[2016]

I know this is a politics forum and we love stargazing. But the genuine answer here is who the hell knows. Way too far out , and God only knows what will be going on in the world then.

The best one can say is midterms 10 to go against the party in power, though there are a few traditionally Democratic states, albeit ones trending Republican, where Republican Senators will be up for re-election.

Otherwise, ask me two years from now.

We all know it's far out but unless Biden gets a 9/11 Type Moment in his first term his Party will lose Seats because that is a common thing well because it happened so often.

Exactly, you need around a 60% approval rating just to stay par and avoid losing any seats.

Obama averaged 47.9% throughout his entire presidency and Obama was far more liked than Biden was.  Biden's chances of having an approval rating sub 50% come November 2022 are going to be quite high therefore.

During the 2010 & 2014 Midterm Elections then President Obama lost a combined...

• 76 House Seats (63 Seats in 2010, 13 Seats in 2014)
• 14 Senate Seats (6 Seats in 2010, 8 Seats in 2014)
• 9 Governor Seats (6 Seats in 2010, 3 Seats in 2014)

nonwithstanding all the Special Elections and the Legislature Seats. Obama lost a combined 100 Seats in Congress over eight years. That is quite some feat to have. Even Bill Clinton didn't lose that many Seats over two Midterms.

[Sharpshooter]

Bill Clinton's approval ratings were much stronger than Obama's, certainly in his second term.

According to Gallup 2nd term Approval rating average:

Clinton 60.6%
Obama 46.2%

Obama's approval rating during the 2014 Mid terms were 40%, the democrats were criticized for running away from Obama then but you could understand why especially those in the south.

[Epaminondas]

Obama lost a combined 100 Seats in Congress over eight years. That is quite some feat to have. Even Bill Clinton didn't lose that many Seats over two Midterms.

Yes, and there's an easy culprit: low midterm turnout.

Hopefully Democrats will have learned the right lessons from 2016 and realise the president is heavily constrained when the opposite party holds Congress.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats pick up no seats, and only hold California, New York, Vermont and Hawaii in the Senate.

In the House, they lose anywhere from 40-100 seats.

They lose a majority of Governor's being defended as well.

In other words, a massacre.

[Left Wing]

Democrats pick up no seats, and only hold California, New York, Vermont and Hawaii in the Senate.

In the House, they lose anywhere from 40-100 seats.

They lose a majority of Governor's being defended as well.

In other words, a massacre.

I highly doubt Duckworth would lose and Wyden and Murray are safe. Dino Rossi is damaged goods now.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats pick up no seats, and only hold California, New York, Vermont and Hawaii in the Senate.

In the House, they lose anywhere from 40-100 seats.

They lose a majority of Governor's being defended as well.

In other words, a massacre.

Lol Van Hollen loses in Maryland?

[lfromnj]

House is all but Safe R
It basically requires a wave to hold with my redistricting math.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Democrats pick up no seats, and only hold California, New York, Vermont and Hawaii in the Senate.

In the House, they lose anywhere from 40-100 seats.

They lose a majority of Governor's being defended as well.

In other words, a massacre.

Lol Van Hollen loses in Maryland?

As implausible as the defeats of Murray, Wyden (if he runs again, OR is safe D), Duckworth and Blumenthal in CT. Refer to the 2018 midterms before assuming this kind of massacre is even possible.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

There will be a backlash against President Hillary Clinton, who assumed office after President Biden resigned due to "significant health problems that caused him to be unable to fulfill his duties.  New Vice President Stacey Abrams was will be sent on the campaign trail to do the Spiro Agnew job, but she will be accused of plagarism after calling Republican Congressional Candidates "Nattering nabobs of negativism".  There will be a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and 260 GOP Reps in the House.

I'm only joking a little bit.  Honestly, Joe Biden does not look well.  He does not look like he's physically or mentally up to the job, and I truly believe that there are insiders that are secretly freaking out over Biden.  These insiders realize that they didn't go with their best, and it's going to get worse when Biden has to come out of his basement.  It's really sad, and it's not Biden's fault.  I believe Obama tried to tell him this was a bad idea.  I believe Jill Biden tried to tell him that this was a bad idea.  I have no idea what Biden thought.  He undoubtedly thought that he was the party's best shot and the polls say he was.  Biden may well get elected.  The polls say it will.  But I am predicting that, one way or another, the Biden Administration will not end well.

[Water Hazard]

House is all but Safe R
It basically requires a wave to hold with my redistricting math.

I wonder if a Biden presidency would lead to Republicans being more likely to "go for broke" in the states where they control redistricting, as in conceding as few seats as possible even if it would leave them more vulnerable in a less favorable year (mostly thinking TX but could apply other places as well). The same could be said for Democrats if Trump is re-elected.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

They're going to do this anyway.

I personally believe that 2020 is going to be a Republican year in the end (Trump wins, GOP takes the House), but that's only because I view Biden as a weak candidate whose liabilities are unfolding progressively.  Biden could well win, and the Democrats could well hold on in the House. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're going to do this anyway.

I personally believe that 2020 is going to be a Republican year in the end (Trump wins, GOP takes the House), but that's only because I view Biden as a weak candidate whose liabilities are unfolding progressively.  Biden could well win, and the Democrats could well hold on in the House. 

Bernie would have generated more enthusiasm,  but we are in recovery now, from the Recession. Ds can very well  keep the House and tie the Senate, due to Kelly, Hickenlooper,  Bullick and Bollier as better candidates than McSally, Gardner, Daines, Marshall and Kobach.

Anyways Ds win AZ, NH, PA, and WI, net 2

[LabourJersey]

Redistricting means that Democrats can probably consolidate most of their 2018 pickups in NJ, NY, IL, PA, and maybe MI and a few other states.

I think also polarization is going to be so strong that we won't see a 2010 or 1994-style wave. both those waves occurred because there were huge swathes of Democratic congresspeople who represented districts that had trended sharply away from their party. That's not going to be the case (at least not probably?) so I don't see a 60 seat net gain.

Republicans could certainly win the House if Biden is unpopular, no question. But they won't get to anything like 240 seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my mao for the senate:

As for the house I'll say lean R but there a lot of unknowns because of redistricting

[CookieDamage]

Real bad.

Ultimately not worth the 2020 win, especially if the downballot lacks power.

Everything alright upstairs?

[Vern]

The house will be bad for Democrats. The Senate will be a wash.

[Flyersfan232]

I'm saying 2018-ish. So a largely static result in the Senate because the Republicans are kind of maxed out, but a bad year for the Dems in the House.

Yeah but gop could hold the pa and gain no maybe Nevada if they get the right candidates