If Biden wins in 2020, how will 2022 midterms look like?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd vaguely Guess
2020: 250D-185R, 53D-47R
2022: 235D-205R, 55D-49R
2024: 240D-200R, 56D-48R
2026: 210D-230R, 50D-54R
2028: 225D-215R, 53D-51R
2030: 195D-245R, 44D-60R

[here2view]

I'd vaguely Guess
2020: 250D-185R, 53D-47R
2022: 235D-205R, 55D-49R
2024: 240D-200R, 56D-48R
2026: 210D-230R, 50D-54R
2028: 225D-215R, 53D-51R
2030: 195D-245R, 44D-60R

Do you have Puerto Rico gaining statehood or something?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd vaguely Guess
2020: 250D-185R, 53D-47R
2022: 235D-205R, 55D-49R
2024: 240D-200R, 56D-48R
2026: 210D-230R, 50D-54R
2028: 225D-215R, 53D-51R
2030: 195D-245R, 44D-60R

Do you have Puerto Rico gaining statehood or something?

Democrats add DC+PR in 2021, yeah. It'd be pretty dumb for them not to do that, given it's pretty popular and would give them 4 free senate seats.

[Lechasseur]

I think the only level they'll really lose seats at is the House level. Not sure if they lose the House, but the Dems will lose seats if Biden wins.

At Senate level, I think the composition stays about the same (the Dems may lose a few seats but then gain a few to make it about even; the 2022 map won't look that bad for them imo)

And in the Governor's races I think it will be about even as well. The Dems may lose a couple but then make up for it somewhere else by taking back a couple others.

I really don't think it's a particularly bad map for them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the only level they'll really lose seats at is the House level. Not sure if they lose the House, but the Dems will lose seats if Biden wins.

At Senate level, I think the composition stays about the same (the Dems may lose a few seats but then gain a few to make it about even; the 2022 map won't look that bad for them imo)

And in the Governor's races I think it will be about even as well. The Dems may lose a couple but then make up for it somewhere else by taking back a couple others.

I really don't think it's a particularly bad map for them.

Ds might manage to gain seats in 2022 even in a Biden midterm due to new lines being more D-friendly. It depends on how much Rs in state legislatures are able to gerrymander and how much Ds are able to gerrymander.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think the only level they'll really lose seats at is the House level. Not sure if they lose the House, but the Dems will lose seats if Biden wins.

At Senate level, I think the composition stays about the same (the Dems may lose a few seats but then gain a few to make it about even; the 2022 map won't look that bad for them imo)

And in the Governor's races I think it will be about even as well. The Dems may lose a couple but then make up for it somewhere else by taking back a couple others.

I really don't think it's a particularly bad map for them.

Ds might manage to gain seats in 2022 even in a Biden midterm due to new lines being more D-friendly. It depends on how much Rs in state legislatures are able to gerrymander and how much Ds are able to gerrymander.

Waves can override lines most of the time

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the only level they'll really lose seats at is the House level. Not sure if they lose the House, but the Dems will lose seats if Biden wins.

At Senate level, I think the composition stays about the same (the Dems may lose a few seats but then gain a few to make it about even; the 2022 map won't look that bad for them imo)

And in the Governor's races I think it will be about even as well. The Dems may lose a couple but then make up for it somewhere else by taking back a couple others.

I really don't think it's a particularly bad map for them.

Ds might manage to gain seats in 2022 even in a Biden midterm due to new lines being more D-friendly. It depends on how much Rs in state legislatures are able to gerrymander and how much Ds are able to gerrymander.

Waves can override lines most of the time

But they don't all the time, and 2022 has a good chance of not being a wave at all either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, NC, PA and WI are in play

[morgieb]

I'm saying 2018-ish. So a largely static result in the Senate because the Republicans are kind of maxed out, but a bad year for the Dems in the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm saying 2018-ish. So a largely static result in the Senate because the Republicans are kind of maxed out, but a bad year for the Dems in the House.

McCarthy isnt Boehner and he is soft spoken,  everyone keeps saying Dems are gonna lose the House and McCarthy doesnt even galvanize voters like Boehner or Ryan does. Dems will hold the House

[Orwell]

Not good for Dems. The GOP regains the house and Kelly and Hassan will lose their Senate seats to Ducey and Sununu.

Lmao funny man

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not good for Dems. The GOP regains the house and Kelly and Hassan will lose their Senate seats to Ducey and Sununu.

Lmao funny man

Many R pollsters like MT Treasurer have disappeared since Trump polls have cratered. He has disappeared before, but Rs arent talking about an R wave anymore, like they were boldly predicting before the Pandemic.  Who cares about 2022, once Dems take back the 3 branches, Dem agenda will be boldly passed

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Going off recent history, GOP probably retakes the house. It’s unclear whether they win back some of the suburban areas they lost in 2018. Also unclear how redistricting will change things, although I fully expect Toilet Man to do a North Carolina-level gerrymander in Illinois, so I doubt the party adds seats there regardless despite the party’s improvement in the northwestern part of the state.

Because the GOP is overextended in this Senate class, they’ll be playing some defense unless Biden’s approval is mid-thirties or below, obviously extremely unlikely, but I do expect them to attack the targets they do have (New Hampshire plus whatever special elections might come up) harder than normal due to the limited nature of opportunities to play offense that year, the same way Democrats went hard after Cocaine Mitch and the open seat in Georgia in 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCarthy would be the worst Speaker in history like Boehner,  the only thing they want to do is cut Obamacare and entitlements. The Biden machine will be much tougher than Obama was on keeping the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Going off recent history, GOP probably retakes the house. It’s unclear whether they win back some of the suburban areas they lost in 2018. Also unclear how redistricting will change things, although I fully expect Toilet Man to do a North Carolina-level gerrymander in Illinois, so I doubt the party adds seats there regardless despite the party’s improvement in the northwestern part of the state.

Because the GOP is overextended in this Senate class, they’ll be playing some defense unless Biden’s approval is mid-thirties or below, obviously extremely unlikely, but I do expect them to attack the targets they do have (New Hampshire plus whatever special elections might come up) harder than normal due to the limited nature of opportunities to play offense that year, the same way Democrats went hard after Cocaine Mitch and the open seat in Georgia in 2014.

IL is gonna lose a seat from 18 to 17, it's likely an R next to their name will become residistricted out.  John Shimkus in District 15 is retiring anyways and the R that replaces him will be restricted put by JB Pritzker 🤩🤩🤩

[slothdem]

Most likely 2018 - the incumbent's party loses seats but the polarized environment prevents a huge wave. There is a real possibility its a weird 2002-style election because of coronavirus. If Biden is able to steward us to an economic recovery I could imagine see truly impressive numbers in suburbia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems didn't have control of redistricting in 2010, that's why the Rs gained seats, this is the first time since 1990 Dems will have control of redistricting

[Sharpshooter]

Newbie poster here, this is my take on it.

Redistricting will be a problem for the GOP undoubtedly and will limit the gains they can make.

However I do think some posters here are badly underestimating Biden's vulnerabilities.

- He'll be 80 years old (with an 82 year old speaker of the house)
- The economy is likely to be in the toilet for the next few years.
- The Trump factor will be gone

He's not a great candidate, he might be good enough to defeat Trump, but christ that's a low bar.  I would say baring some rallying effect like 9/11 his approval ratings are likely to be in the 40s.  Obama averaged 47.9% on Gallup for his ENTIRE presidency, he was at 45 and 40 for his two respective mid term elections, which the democrats had their butts handed to them, and Biden doesn't have the charisma or inspiration Obama had.

1998 and 2002 were the only two mid terms where parties avoided losses in modern times, and both those presidencies at that point in time were well above 60% approval ratings.  I could have seen a more realistic pathway for Biden had the economy stayed good for a few more years, but not now.

I expect Trump voters to be utterly pissed at the way 'their guy' has been treated by the press with impeachment, endless investigations etc, and just like the dems in 2018, there will be a completely irrational angry reaction and wanting blood/revenge and it will be much worse than 2008 was, no one does siege mentality better than GOP voters do.  Trump will be gone also, so democrats will lose their movating factor.

Lets not forget the democrats are pretty divided in many ways too like the GOP, there's a lot of fractures in that party.  The Bernie wing may (and its still not guaranteed) come out for Joe in this election to unseat the Orange clown but if Biden passes TPP (which he states he wants to) stays in Afghanistan going full triangulation ala Bill Clinton that wing of the party is not going to turn out for 2022, no way.

Also remember Obama had supermajority (or near one) for his two years, Biden will be lucky to get a slim majority in the senate, and if he doesn't, Mitch McConnell will push him to the right and block all the big liberal ideas and we get stalemate which doesn't benefit the incumbant party.

The only thing that could help democrats is the brainless GOP electorate picking fruitloop candidates like Christine O'Donnell, Sharon Angle, Richard Mourdock, Roy Moore etc throwing winnable seats away.  That's very very possible knowing them.

The best thing for the GOP is to lose this election narrowly and somehow keep the senate.  The 2022 midterms will be a bloodbath if Trump somehow holds onto power.  They have a pathway of getting both the house and senate back by January 2025 and a Republican president if they can get rid of Trump this year.

[2016]

The Democratic Party will be done by 2025.

[anthonyjg]

The Democratic Party will be done by 2025.

Large, if factual

[MillennialModerate]

A lot depends on if Biden has both houses of Congress. If he does then he’ll set the right on fire because he will make actual change (kinda counter productive, eh?)

If Biden’s first 2 years have a D senate and D house:
Dems flip PA, GOP flips AZ
Dems lose 15 House seats, maintain slim majority

If Biden’s first 2 years have a R senate and D House:
Dems +2, Dems flip PA & WI.
Dems lose 1-5 House Seats

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot depends on if Biden has both houses of Congress. If he does then he’ll set the right on fire because he will make actual change (kinda counter productive, eh?)

If Biden’s first 2 years have a D senate and D house:
Dems flip PA, GOP flips AZ
Dems lose 15 House seats, maintain slim majority

If Biden’s first 2 years have a R senate and D House:
Dems +2, Dems flip PA & WI.
Dems lose 1-5 House Seats

Never underestimate the GOP in wave years. The house will partially depend upon redistricting, and I expect we see a map even more scewed in favor of the GOP, and Dems will lose a lot of seats in the house because many of their incumbency advantages will be distorted. The senate won't be bad for Ds no matter what. The only real GOP pickup opprotunities are NV, NH, AZ (if Kelly wins) and GA(S) if Dems somehow win the runoff. Dems could pick up PA if Wolf runs, but after that, i don't see how they will pick up WI in an R wave year, even if it's a more modest one. NC maybe could be a pikcup if Hagan runs. GA won't flip. The senate could be anything from R+3 to D+1 depending upon how big a wave 2022 is

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

[Sharpshooter]

A lot depends on if Biden has both houses of Congress. If he does then he’ll set the right on fire because he will make actual change (kinda counter productive, eh?)

If Biden’s first 2 years have a D senate and D house:
Dems flip PA, GOP flips AZ
Dems lose 15 House seats, maintain slim majority

If Biden’s first 2 years have a R senate and D House:
Dems +2, Dems flip PA & WI.
Dems lose 1-5 House Seats

He's going to set the right on fire anyway for just being elected, Trump supporters are going to be utterly pissed when their messiah loses just like the way dems reacted when Hillary lost.  People think Obamacare was the reason for the 63 seat loss in 2010, but in reality it was the economy that cost him, Obamacare wasn't on the table in 2014 and they still got slaughtered, again because the economic recovery was slow.

Very optimistic for the democratics to think they'll avoid losing less than 20 seats.  They wont lose anything like 63 this time but I'd say it will likely be closer to 40 than to 20 if the economy still isn't good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC maybe could be a [pickup] if Hagan runs

Um, I don't know how to tell you this.... but...

She won by over 8 points in 2008 and outperformed Obama. She barely lost in 2014, only by 1 point, despite the R wave. She's a pretty good canidate. If she were to run against Tillis in 2020, the race would be tilt if not lean D