If Biden wins in 2020, how will 2022 midterms look like?

[Rookie Yinzer]

1998. I don't think he would face that big of a backlash. The Democrats might even keep the senate even or have 1-2 net pickups. Senate and House could actually swing in different directions like 2018, what mainly can be explained by the senate map.

Yeah Biden isn’t the big bad socialist Black beast they said Obama was or the corrupt war monger man eating bitch that they would made Hillary out to be. I can see coming out of it OK depending on external factors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

PLEASE STO TREATING TIM RYAN LIKE THIS BELOVED POLITICIAN IN OH! If he runs, I gurentee you he'll lose to Portman in 2022, it wont be close.

Not If Biden's approvals are 53 percent

[Blair]

Won't it require Biden to do something big & controversial? I might be guessing or plucking at straws but the big mid-term first loses all seem to come after a major controversey that stokes up turnout (Hillarycare in '94, the Stimulus/Obamacare in '10 and Trump gutting Obamacare in '18)

I assume even if Biden wins it will be with at best a 50/50 senate & I can't see what actually gets done.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Won't it require Biden to do something big & controversial? I might be guessing or plucking at straws but the big mid-term first loses all seem to come after a major controversey that stokes up turnout (Hillarycare in '94, the Stimulus/Obamacare in '10 and Trump gutting Obamacare in '18)

I assume even if Biden wins it will be with at best a 50/50 senate & I can't see what actually gets done.

Republicans are constantly angry at everything, and the country might not have fully recovered after the coronavirus depression.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take
Dems lose a lot of house seats, but the House will not flip. In the Senate, Hassan and Kelly lose.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Nowhere near as bad for the Democrats as 2010 was for them in the House or 2014 was for them in the senate. Republicans regain ground but come up short of what they’ve come to expect in Democratic midterms.

[pikachu]

Won't it require Biden to do something big & controversial? I might be guessing or plucking at straws but the big mid-term first loses all seem to come after a major controversey that stokes up turnout (Hillarycare in '94, the Stimulus/Obamacare in '10 and Trump gutting Obamacare in '18)

I assume even if Biden wins it will be with at best a 50/50 senate & I can't see what actually gets done.

With American politics as polarized as they are, any major legislative proposal is likely to have major backlash. 2014 didn’t even have any really major legislative issues and it still resulted in a PV loss in the House as bad as 2010. That being said, there isn’t much more room for Dems to fall in Senate, but I do think anyone not setting their baseline for at least double-digit losses in the House is being optimistic.

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably 2002.  It would not be a wave unless the Republican Party fundamentally changes.  Right now it's basically a southern/rural white party with inroads in some suburbs and some minority communities.  If that doesn't fundamentally change it's not going to win back the house and wouldn't get a huge number of senate seats either.  The GOP is on borrowed time unless it starts appealing to college whites and minorities.  A lot of the house seats that flipped in 2018 aren't going back anytime soon.  Maybe some of the unexpected ones like the Oklahoma, SC, NM, UT, upstate NY seats (which might switch back in 2020 anyways).  But the Philly, DC, OC burbs aren't flipping back because a moderate democrat was elected President in 2020.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is worth remembering that in late 2008 early 2009, most of the Atlas talk centered around how many seats Dems would gain in 2010. A word of caution in that.

[Gracile]

The Democrats will likely lose seats in the House and Senate (as is expected for the party in the White House). Maybe they can keep their losses to a minimum, but 2022 is going to be an especially challenging cycle because of redistricting.

A lot of the house seats that flipped in 2018 aren't going back anytime soon.  Maybe some of the unexpected ones like the Oklahoma, SC, NM, UT, upstate NY seats (which might switch back in 2020 anyways).  But the Philly, DC, OC burbs aren't flipping back because a moderate democrat was elected President in 2020.

I actually think that the GOP path to the House will be built on some of their "close call" seats in 2016 (ones that trended rightward but not enough to win), not these suburban seats that they won in 2018 - such as CT-05, OR-04, OH-13, and MI-05 (or whatever the equivalent seats will be post-redistricting). Basically, it would be the Republican equivalent of the Democrats winning VA-07 or IL-14 in 2018.

[Pericles]

In 2021 I'll probably anticipate a big Republican wave if Biden is President and then in 2022 I will re-examine and see if Democrats look set to perform better.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably 2002.  It would not be a wave unless the Republican Party fundamentally changes.  Right now it's basically a southern/rural white party with inroads in some suburbs and some minority communities.  If that doesn't fundamentally change it's not going to win back the house and wouldn't get a huge number of senate seats either.  The GOP is on borrowed time unless it starts appealing to college whites and minorities.  A lot of the house seats that flipped in 2018 aren't going back anytime soon.  Maybe some of the unexpected ones like the Oklahoma, SC, NM, UT, upstate NY seats (which might switch back in 2020 anyways).  But the Philly, DC, OC burbs aren't flipping back because a moderate democrat was elected President in 2020.

VA-10 wouldn't flip back but places like OR-5, CT-2, IL-17 (or their successors) would be pretty vulnerable.

[windjammer]

Seriously it's better not to be optimistic. When was the last time the first midterm wasn't catastrophic for a president (exceot 2002)?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has to win first, which isnt guaranteed and Toomey and Johnson's seat is gonna go Dem, Walker and Paul Ryan isnt in WI anymore. Toomey only won due to McGinty, if he faced Sestak, he would have lost.

The GOP knows this, that's why they keep making threads that Dems are doomed in 2022, which Dems arent

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden has to win first, which isnt guaranteed and Toomey and Johnson's seat is gonna go Dem, Walker and Paul Ryan isnt in WI anymore. Toomey only won due to McGinty, if he faced Sestak, he would have lost.

The GOP knows this, that's why they keep making threads that Dems are doomed in 2022, which Dems arent

I think the GOP are likely to hold onto Wisconsin if Biden wins. I agree that Toomey has the potential to become a reverse Bill Nelson.

[jamestroll]

Seriously it's better not to be optimistic. When was the last time the first midterm wasn't catastrophic for a president (exceot 2002)?

1998 lol.

I can see a mix of 2018 and 2002 for Midterm 2022 if Biden is elected.

Governor's race may somewhat parallel 2018 Senate Races.

Maryland will probably be a lost cause for the GOP. Unless Boyd Rutherford wants to run or former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman. But even with them it is uphill battle.

Georgia Governor could be lost for the GOP due to demographic changes alone but there is some precedent for bolstered vote totals for inoffensive incumbents for the GOP from minorities unless the Democrat is a minority. Kemp is not exactly beloved though. So I am assuming at this early stage it will be a competitive just due to demographics.

Florida- Desantis is right now looking like a clown and if he continues down this path we may be able to elect the first Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.

Arizona will be an open seat and unless it is a very strong GOP year the Democrats probably have a tiny edge in the gubernatorial election even with Biden as President.

I am hoping either Abbott or Lt. Governor Patrick in Texas retire. In effect both offices are equally as important. Winning the Governorship of Texas for Democrats has better bragging rights but the Lt. Governor position tends to more functional government power. I am not on board with the "texas will be a SOLID Dem state" train but it is clear the lock out is over. The winning map will basically be Beto's but with some margins adjusted and Democrats possibly winning Denton or Collin counties.

For the house gerrymandering and redistricting will hurt Democrats a bit so I can buy the GOP retaking the House of Representatives. But unless electoral politics are really shaken up the GOP will begin to suffer from rural packing problems. Which you could already see in 2018 House elections. The Democratic popular vote was impressive at D+8/9 but with all the uncontested races it could easily be revised down and we efficiently gained loads of suburban seats.

For the Senate I have not looked into much at all. But the GOP is probably slightly over extended.

So I could see a 2002/2018 mix.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has to win first, then we can talk about 2022. But, as long as Biden doesn't have an approval rating under 45 percent,  like most midterm Prez, then he avoids the bad midterms.

[jamestroll]

In 2010 House elections the Democrats were very much over extended and held seats with ridiculous R-PVI's.

In the 1980s, 1990s and well into 2000s many Democratic incumbents held on just because of incumbency, being non-controversial and local Republicans not having much will to defeat to them.

By 2010 almost all that loyalty disappated. In 2022 the Democrats just will not have as much to lose unless coalitions change dramatically.

If Hillary Clinton won in 2016 the 2018 house elections may not have been much loss for the Democrats, if any. Some Democratic trending GOP held seats could have still flipped Democratic and there were not many seats that the GOP could have realistically picked up. I could have seen the GOP picking up a few seats that would have been equivilent to our SC-01 or OK-05 but there would have been a huge shift in the house.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike McCarthy has proven that he isnt as a take charge Leader as Boehner and Gingrich were, and later Speaker Paul Ryan. Alot of voters dont know whom he is, compared to Gingrich, Boehner and Ryan, whom have been on Meet the Press as minority leaders, but Leader McCarthy stayes on Fox News and avoids Meet the Press.

That's why so many Rs have retired, due to McCarthy's leadership

[Rjjr77]

Mike McCarthy has proven that he isnt as a take charge Leader as Boehner and Gingrich were, and later Speaker Paul Ryan. Alot of voters dont know whom he is, compared to Gingrich, Boehner and Ryan, whom have been on Meet the Press as minority leaders, but Leader McCarthy stayes on Fox News and avoids Meet the Press.

That's why so many Rs have retired, due to McCarthy's leadership

I dont think the Dallas Cowboys football coach has that kind of effect on GOP house members

[Xing]

Hard to say, since it’ll depend on how popular Biden is. If it’s a typical midterm, it probably looks like 2018. Minimal change in the Senate, but big gains for Republicans in the House.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

House in 2022 will hinge on how fair the maps are drawn. NC, PA, and MI shouldn't be as bad as post-2010.

Senate in 2022 will probably be a wash.

[Storr]

Seriously it's better not to be optimistic. When was the last time the first midterm wasn't catastrophic for a president (exceot 2002)?

Yes. 1998 was one as well, but 2002 was the first first-term midterm where the President's party didn't lose seats in the House since FDR's in 1934. Actually, since 1870, the only midterms where the President's party didn't lose seats in the House were 1902, 1934, 1998, and 2002. So going by history, unless there's a huge factor involved to outweigh the traditional midterm trends, (a Presidential assassination, a Great Depression, an unpopular Impeachment, or an unprecedented Terrorist attack, respectively) the 2022 midterms likely won't look great for Democrats. Honestly, a 1926 (-9), 1954 (-18), 1962 (-4), 1970 (-12), 1978 (-15), 1990 (-8), or 2014 (-13) would be a victory for Democrats because (assuming post 2020 the majority is around where it currently is at) they'd keep the House and buck the trend of 3 of the last 4 midterms being tremendous waves against the President's party, losing them the House as a result.

If I had to guess, I'd say the closest first-midterm parallel would be 1982 (high teens to 20s seat loss, and this is assuming decent Democratic gains in 2020 with around a 10 to 20 seat gain). I thought about choosing 1978, but knowing how vehemently Republicans opposed Obama from day one, and seeing no reason to think they will not do the same to a President Biden; I feel losses would likely be closer to 23 (1982) than 15 (1978). I doubt a 1994 or 2010 sized loss could happen again, simply because there are almost no Blue Dog/Red leaning Democratic-held districts left. Like the 90s/2000s Republican majority, the current House majority is built from districts trending or already leaning in their favor, unlike the late 2000s Democratic majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know what the Rs are trying to do here, if the economy doesnt recovers by 2022, then they want to blame Biden. Dems have learned from 2010, Dems kept the filibuster and allowed R obstruction,  that wont happen again and popular programs will pass, that were obstructed last time

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Absolute slaughterfest. States like MD and VT could be competitive in the senatorial level with Hogan/Scott. It would be 2010/1994 again.

MD and VT are not voting Republican for Senate even in a 1994/2010 style wave.

They have GOP governors though. Yes, I know state and national politics are very different but these guys are really popular in their states. Especially if they are running for an open Senate seat, the race might get competitive. They might not win, but it wouldn't be a Safe D race anymore.