CNN: Biden +35

[wbrocks67]

This chicken was *really* cooked

Biden's path to the Democratic nomination has cleared since the poll fielded from Friday through Monday. His chief rival, Bernie Sanders, announced he was suspending his campaign on Wednesday. The poll found that before Sanders ended his bid, 65% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters backed Biden, while 30% backed Sanders.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump/index.html

[Landslide Lyndon]

Goodnight sweet prince.

[Bidenworth2020]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

A solid 30% not backing Biden would be game over for him. Not saying that would happen as people like me will vote for Biden (VP will be Klob btw ) but kind of an ignorant statement.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

A solid 30% not backing Biden would be game over for him. Not saying that would happen as people like me will vote for Biden (VP will be Klob btw ) but kind of an ignorant statement.

Sanders had only 30% of the party (so definitely not remotely close to an overall majority) but they were a very loyal core that stood with him till the very end. So yeah he had loads of supporters throughout the entire primary. It was one reason why his polling was so consistently a straight line.

[Eraserhead]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

Didn't you guys say something similar last time?

I wish I could say I was looking forward to the reaction when the same thing happens again but I'm not actually.

[Bidenworth2020]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

Didn't you guys say something similar last time?

I wish I could say I was looking forward to the reaction when the same thing happens again but I'm not actually.

Bernie got 43% last time, and double the #, and was winning people that were basically republicans anyway. Now, he is winning around 30% with a coalition that is far more loyal to the party and that has shown less likely to vote for Trump or stay home. To be clear, Biden could still lose for other reasons, I am just saying this look less likely to be an issue than it was in 2016.

[Eraserhead]

Whew! Honestly, not even that worried about losing some of Bernie's supporters-- he didn't have many left!

Didn't you guys say something similar last time?

I wish I could say I was looking forward to the reaction when the same thing happens again but I'm not actually.

Bernie got 43% last time, and double the #, and was winning people that were basically republicans anyway. Now, he is winning around 30% with a coalition that is far more loyal to the party and that has shown less likely to vote for Trump or stay home. To be clear, Biden could still lose for other reasons, I am just saying this look less likely to be an issue than it was in 2016.

For the record, he's at just over 31% while Biden is at 40.73% in terms of actual votes cast. Biden is going to need Sanders people to come out strongly for him if it's a close race in November and it's certainly looking like it will be.

[Adam Griffin]

Bernie got 43% last time, and double the #, and was winning people that were basically people willing to give the party one last try.

Now, he is winning around 30% with a coalition that is far more loyal to the party and that has shown less likely to vote for Trump or stay home.

You can keep thinking that...


The percentage point difference (which won't be apples-to-apples this time, for obvious reasons given he isn't staying in the race through June + many contests that would have already voted moved to June) between 2016 & 2020 (using the 30-43% gap here, which is dubious, but whatever) was like half attributable to 2016 protest-voters who weren't going to vote Democratic regardless; a good 6-7% of '16 D primary voters were Republicans locked into the process and voted against Clinton. On that part, you are right in calling them "Republicans". Between '16 and '20, what will make up the remaining difference between 30% and 43% won't be Obama-Trump voters, but people who just switched to Biden because Bernie was effectively done. There is a meaningful number of people who just want to be on the winning team in elections.

If anything, the fact that the Sanders coalition this time was far less comprised of olds and whites means the core of it will be less reliable to the Democratic Party, not more. Arguably the single-biggest difference in the coalition between '16 and '20 was that Sanders supporters this year are disproportionately comprised of the future of the party: Latinos and Asians. These groups are disproportionately young and low-propensity, which makes them more likely to stay home or even protest vote in the GE (i.e. stop attributing black voting behavior to all non-white groups). Once you jettison the GE-Republicans from '16 locked into Democratic primary because of ancestral and closed-state dynamics, there's no way to argue this year's coalition is inherently more loyal.

People are also ignoring the abstract dynamic that many Sanders supporters have now lost not just once, but twice - in conjunction that many considered Clinton heir-apparent and Sanders' run in 2016 a suicide gambit, whereas this time, he was seen at various points as a clear frontrunner. This will create a greater sense of bitterness among a meaningful number than the loss in '16 did.

[bagelman]

Bernie probably saw this when he threw in the towel. He's expecting to be shutout of WI - wouldn't be surprised if he manages to lose Menominee County.