Lake County, MI

[EastAnglianLefty]

Lake County in Michigan voted Democrat at every election from 1964 to 2012 except 1984 (but including 1972) and seems to have fairly reliably voted significantly to the left of all of its neighbours. However, Trump won it by 23 points in 2016 and its electoral behaviour is now barely distinguishable from its neighbours.

What explains it? The county looks to have a slightly larger black population than its neighbours, but not enough to explain the difference on its own. What's more, it appears to contain a private prison, which suggests the actual electorate is considerably less black (and prison workers wouldn't intuitively strike me as a particularly Democratic constituency.) Is there anything else about its history or economy that has made it more Democratic than its neighbours and why did this stop applying in 2016?

[VPH]

I've always wondered this too. Seems to be poorer and less educated than surrounding counties, but idk why else it was so democratic. Doesn't seem to stand out in terms of ethnic background either, which sometimes helps explain rural anomalies.

[dpmapper]

Love how Lake County is part of the ~half of Michigan counties that don't border a Great Lake.  

[Horus]

The Baldwin-Idlewild area used to be home to a decently large, upper class black community. Many from Detroit had summer homes there, others moved permanently. When Detroit started to decline, so did Idlewild and now virtually no black people remain in Lake county.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Love how Lake County is part of the ~half of Michigan counties that don't border a Great Lake.