MT Congressional Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah any fair map worth its salt has to have Kalispell in the Western district, it's a bad map otherwise.

If this is by a "good=respect CoI" definition, I agree completely. Not only that, it's easy to keep the entire west together except for Gallatin being in the east. No county splits, and one district is wholely contained within Western Montana.

[Heir of Camelot]

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2021/05/05/redrawing-district-lines/?fbclid=IwAR2Qa_ROoy4Rr2VTTW_i8EUpXP8ItQdVLp7n-ghXY44uE_ch9xjVvksnj68

This came out in the Flathead Beacon this morning. I think it will be reasonably close to this.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah any fair map worth its salt has to have Kalispell in the Western district, it's a bad map otherwise.

If this is by a "good=respect CoI" definition, I agree completely. Not only that, it's easy to keep the entire west together except for Gallatin being in the east. No county splits, and one district is wholely contained within Western Montana.

Yes, Kalispell to the east is the telltale sign of a Mathismander 2.0. 

BTW that area is trending Dem anyway and Helena is trending GOP. 

[Alcibiades]

Yeah any fair map worth its salt has to have Kalispell in the Western district, it's a bad map otherwise.

If this is by a "good=respect CoI" definition, I agree completely. Not only that, it's easy to keep the entire west together except for Gallatin being in the east. No county splits, and one district is wholely contained within Western Montana.

Yes, Kalispell to the east is the telltale sign of a Mathismander 2.0. 

BTW that area is trending Dem anyway and Helena is trending GOP. 

Is Helena? Lewis and Clark County trended D at the last election and displayed only a very modest R trend in 2016.

[Canis]

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2021/05/05/redrawing-district-lines/?fbclid=IwAR2Qa_ROoy4Rr2VTTW_i8EUpXP8ItQdVLp7n-ghXY44uE_ch9xjVvksnj68

This came out in the Flathead Beacon this morning. I think it will be reasonably close to this.

Your Back!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

This must be parody, right?

I wholeheartedly endorse this map.

Of course you do.

Dude, you’re not fooling anyone.  Just admit that you’re salty about TML’s fair map making more sense than the Republican gerrymander you posted.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

Even with that commission, we’re probably not going to get a district stretching from Billings to Kalispell. Every serious person is going to recognize that for what it is (an amateurish attempt at a blatantly obvious D gerrymander), and in a two-district state in which you have historical precedent for this, that’s going to be a lot harder to mask than in AZ. Republicans don’t have much leverage when it comes to the commission (although I hope Gianforte pushes for a more aggressive overhaul of the judicial system, not that I think his administration has done a bad job so far), but they do have some leverage when it comes to other legislation (maybe something to keep in mind by the time the next Gianforte veto has to be overriden). I mean, maybe I’m wrong and Democrats are right to feel really confident about this district, but I don’t think we’re going to get any map that (a) splits Yellowstone County but excludes the entire Flathead Valley or (b) excludes the Flathead area but packs Missoula, Bozeman, and Helena into one district. Since the geography & long-term trends largely favor Democrats in any western district anyway, I doubt you’re going to see such an aggressive push. They’d have a good chance of winning any MT-1 with NW Montana in it in a neutral year and/or with a D incumbent as well, so it’s not like that district would be unwinnable for them.

Bottom line: While by no means impossible and no one can say for sure, it would be pretty unprecedented for that commission to create the kinds of D gerrymanders that have been proposed in this thread. Yes, they will likely opt for Gallatin/Park > Lewis & Clark/Cascade to be in MT-1 (the trends are way more favorable for Democrats in that area), but that’s likely as far as they will go.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

Even with that commission, we’re probably not going to get a district stretching from Billings to Kalispell. Every serious person is going to recognize that for what it is (an amateurish attempt at a blatantly obvious D gerrymander), and in a two-district state in which you have historical precedent for this, that’s going to be a lot harder to mask than in AZ. Republicans don’t have much leverage when it comes to the commission (although I hope Gianforte pushes for a more aggressive overhaul of the judicial system, not that I think his administration has done a bad job so far), but they do have some leverage when it comes to other legislation (maybe something to keep in mind by the time the next Gianforte veto has to be overriden). I mean, maybe I’m wrong and Democrats are right to feel really confident about this district, but I don’t think we’re going to get any map that (a) splits Yellowstone County but excludes the entire Flathead Valley or (b) excludes the Flathead area but packs Missoula, Bozeman, and Helena into one district. Since the geography & long-term trends largely favor Democrats in any western district anyway, I doubt you’re going to see such an aggressive push. They’d have a good chance of winning any MT-1 with NW Montana in it in a neutral year and/or with a D incumbent as well, so it’s not like that district would be unwinnable for them.

Bottom line: While by no means impossible and no one can say for sure, it would be pretty unprecedented for that commission to create the kinds of D gerrymanders that have been proposed in this thread. Yes, they will likely opt for Gallatin/Park > Lewis & Clark/Cascade to be in MT-1 (the trends are way more favorable for Democrats in that area), but that’s likely as far as they will go.

You hope

[VAR]

Dude, you’re not fooling anyone.  Just admit that you’re salty about TML’s fair map making more sense than the Republican gerrymander you posted.

I get that you think Dems should be more aggressive when it comes to redistricting, but that has little to do with whether or not a map is fair. You shouldn't call a map a gerrymander unless you've got anything to back up your claim, and it seems like you don't.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

 To go on further your map actually splits the Flathead reservation slightly as it goes into Missoula County a bit at least looking at this map. Although the Flathead reservation is more integrated than other reservations which is interesting.
http://opi.mt.gov/Educators/Teaching-Learning/Indian-Education-for-All/Indian-Education-General-Information

Easy enough fix but that then breaks the rule of no county splits if you want to defend the map on that ground. Not that 1 county split is unreasonable.

[TML]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

 To go on further your map actually splits the Flathead reservation slightly as it goes into Missoula County a bit at least looking at this map. Although the Flathead reservation is more integrated than other reservations which is interesting.
http://opi.mt.gov/Educators/Teaching-Learning/Indian-Education-for-All/Indian-Education-General-Information

Easy enough fix but that then breaks the rule of no county splits if you want to defend the map on that ground. Not that 1 county split is unreasonable.

I did acknowledge that my proposed configuration splits this particular reservation. But then again, it appears that this particular reservation is over two-thirds white, unlike other major MT reservations which are majority nonwhite (which in turn means that this reservation is much more Republican-leaning than other major MT reservations), and the part in Missoula County is not a very significant portion of the reservation overall (here, I would define a "significant" split as 25% or more of the land area being in multiple districts).

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

 To go on further your map actually splits the Flathead reservation slightly as it goes into Missoula County a bit at least looking at this map. Although the Flathead reservation is more integrated than other reservations which is interesting.
http://opi.mt.gov/Educators/Teaching-Learning/Indian-Education-for-All/Indian-Education-General-Information

Easy enough fix but that then breaks the rule of no county splits if you want to defend the map on that ground. Not that 1 county split is unreasonable.

It's literally one precinct which is 62% white at that with 1.2k people total.   The only inhabited portion in Missoula County is a tiny farming area.   I did say "almost" in the original description.   If people are going to make a fuss about that precinct then no map is going to be acceptable.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/collapsible_b/status/1388221962187587589

If anyone is wondering why the Billings to Kalispell district is bad from a "good government" point of view.

Given how the commission was rigged AZ style, that's probably what we are going to get

Not denying that, just explaining to atlas why its probably a bad map.

You have to break up the mountains at some point anyway, there's too much population in the west.   Plus "following the mountains" as they're suggesting breaks up Native reservations.

No it doesn't really break up any reservations. Flathead does not include the Blackfeet native reservation. And yes you do have to break up the mountains but clearly there are more relatively flatter areas near Bozeman/Helena. Kalispell/Whitehead is in the core of the mountain region.There are areas in Flathead which have like 12% native bordering the reservation but its like 42 Native Americans who live like a whole hour away.

 To go on further your map actually splits the Flathead reservation slightly as it goes into Missoula County a bit at least looking at this map. Although the Flathead reservation is more integrated than other reservations which is interesting.
http://opi.mt.gov/Educators/Teaching-Learning/Indian-Education-for-All/Indian-Education-General-Information

Easy enough fix but that then breaks the rule of no county splits if you want to defend the map on that ground. Not that 1 county split is unreasonable.

It's literally one precinct which is 62% white at that with 1.2k people total.   The only inhabited portion in Missoula County is a tiny farming area.   I did say "almost" in the original description.   If people are going to make a fuss about that precinct then no map is going to be acceptable.

I do agree, but you did say the same amount how the other map would split a reservation when it doesn't do it anyway. Yes the Flathead reservation isn't as clear of a COI as other reservations.

[Nyvin]

I've seen the district I posted put up by others elsewhere a couple times now, I really don't think excluding Flathead is as "toxic" as some here are making it out to be.

https://twitter.com/senhorraposa/status/1196541450529517568

[MT Treasurer]

"I've seen the district I posted put up by other Democratic activists elsewhere* a couple times now, I really don't think excluding Flathead is as 'toxic' as some here are making it out to be."

*read: on Twitter

[Meatball Ron]

"I've seen the district I posted put up by other Democratic activists elsewhere* a couple times now, I really don't think excluding Flathead is as 'toxic' as some here are making it out to be."

*read: on Twitter

Drew is a nonpartisan / non-ideological elections analyst, not a Democratic activist

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this has been asked, but is it possible to create a clean-looking MT-01 that voted for Biden? Or would the bluest district have voted for Trump by low single digits?

[TML]

Not sure if this has been asked, but is it possible to create a clean-looking MT-01 that voted for Biden? Or would the bluest district have voted for Trump by low single digits?

Available data suggests that it would take extreme gerrymandering to create a district which voted D at the presidential level here in MT (the district would be shaped like a snake/worm and stretch from the NE Plains to the northern Rockies back down to the southern Rockies and ending in the SE Plains).

[lfromnj]

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-politics/commission-parties-gear-up-for-battle-over-mts-congressional-districts?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Everyone obviously so far agrees on East vs West split. Democrats want to create a district that is competitive and they proposed the Cascade Falls West but Kalispell East map. The GOP prefers excluding Bozeman .
We all know how this is going to end anyway.

[Nyvin]

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-politics/commission-parties-gear-up-for-battle-over-mts-congressional-districts?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Everyone obviously so far agrees on East vs West split. Democrats want to create a district that is competitive and they proposed the Cascade Falls West but Kalispell East map. The GOP prefers excluding Bozeman .
We all know how this is going to end anyway.

WHOOOOOAAAA!!!

THEY DREW MY MAP!!!

(literally an exact copy of it!!)

How cool is that?

Here's the description:

A plan floating around Democratic circles would take Republican-leaning northwest Montana, including Kalispell, and attach it to the eastern-Montanan district, leaving Missoula, Bozeman, Butte and Helena in the remaining district, which would lean Democratic.

[S019]

How does the independent lean? This seems like an AZ/NJ style commission where the tiebreaker chooses a partisan leaning map.

[TML]

How does the independent lean? This seems like an AZ/NJ style commission where the tiebreaker chooses a partisan leaning map.

This individual has donated to Democratic candidates/groups before, and is also a person of color (in this case, a Native American). However, the reservation she represents is the only one out of the seven major MT reservations that is not a virtual lock for Democrats in most elections.

[lfromnj]

How does the independent lean? This seems like an AZ/NJ style commission where the tiebreaker chooses a partisan leaning map.

This individual has donated to Democratic candidates/groups before, and is also a person of color (in this case, a Native American). However, the reservation she represents is the only one out of the seven major MT reservations that is not a virtual lock for Democrats in most elections.

That's due to the fact settlers were allowed onto the reservation itself making it majority white.

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that putting Gallatin County in the east is just as egregious as excluding NW Montana is nonsense, and any non-hackish observer will confirm this irrespective of their partisan affiliation. I would personally prefer the 'Great Falls/Helena east, Flathead and Gallatin west' compromise (with some adjustments to equalize population if necessary), but it’s honestly remarkable how Democrats always succeed at stacking these commissions with the most partisan hacks (and Joe Lamson is really a class of his own in this regard).

I’m also not aware of any requirement that districts need to be "as competitive as possible" (weird way of phrasing "compact," but I digress...).

If they really do opt for that D sink, I hope the GOP can pull off something similar in NH.

[S019]

The idea that putting Gallatin County in the east is just as egregious as excluding NW Montana is nonsense, and any non-hackish observer will confirm this irrespective of their partisan affiliation. I would personally prefer the 'Great Falls/Helena east, Flathead and Gallatin west' compromise (with some adjustments to equalize population if necessary), but it’s honestly remarkable how Democrats always succeed at stacking these commissions with the most partisan hacks (and Joe Lamson is really a class of his own in this regard).

I’m also not aware of any requirement that districts need to be "as competitive as possible" (weird way of phrasing "compact," but I digress...).

If they really do opt for that D sink, I hope the GOP can pull off something similar in NH.

The GOP is already making plans to draw out Pappas per scoops from multiple outlets, including POLITICO and the CW has been that they'd do that, really since they gained the trifecta given that Ann Kuster's strength means they probably won't win both seats in the foreseeable future, so locking in a 1-1 would really help them.

Also not every commission has D hacks, AZ is probably going to be R leaning, and NJ was R leaning in 2012 (though will probably be D leaning this time due to both Governor Murphy and the anticipated Democratic takeover of the state Supreme Court).

Also I don't that map is really a D sink it was Trump+8, while Tester and Bullock did better, 2020 indicated that MT's ticket splitting tradition might be coming to an end. It'd probably be a tossup seat.

Also I drew the GOP proposal here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/343a5e9c-df80-4d07-b2fe-3d260a80f3d3

Western district is Trump+17, Bullock+7, Tester+6