Can Democrats net senate seats in 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given the fact that the 2018 senate map will be up again, and it'll be a presidential election year so a extereme wave in either direction is less likely, can Democrats net senate seats? I'm not sure if Manchin will run again or not, but either way, WV is a likely flip since the legacy dems there are dying out and younger voters don't remember the time Manchin was governor. In Montana, Tester will probably lose under most circumstances if the GOP actually take this race seriously unlike 2018, which was still close. Democrats could also lose OH, MI, PA, WI, ME (all of which will probably have redder PVIs by then) and their only real pickup opprotunities are FL and TX, which won't be very easy. Seems like even in their best case they will just break even. This assumes a special election doesn't open up and chances the 2024 senate math.

[brucejoel99]

There's no way.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the 2 most likely scenarios for 2024 are Dem takes the WH after 2 terms of Trump or incumbent Dem gets reelected, so the timing is structurally in Dems' favor.  But the map is very structurally GOP at least under the Trump coalition, and that won out in 2018 despite the R midterm. 

The 2 best Dem opportunities by far are TX and FL.  MS is hard but not impossible.  Romney in UT may well seek reelection as an independent and caucus with them (I could even see him going Indie before his current term is over).  Would that count as a Dem gain? 

On the GOP side, West Virginia is almost a sure thing, and Ohio is more likely than not, becoming a sure thing if Brown retires.  Montana probably starts 50/50 with Tester but Lean R if he retires.  Then there are a bunch of dominoes that would fall even in a lean Dem year if the Dem wins while losing ground in the Midwest/rural North (ME, PA, MI, WI, ME). 

I could just barely see net D+1 or D+2 in a 2008 style national environment, but the Midwest can't move much farther away or it becomes impossible.   

[Person Man]

Well, the 2 most likely scenarios for 2024 are Dem takes the WH after 2 terms of Trump or incumbent Dem gets reelected, so the timing is structurally in Dems' favor.  But the map is very structurally GOP at least under the Trump coalition, and that won out in 2018 despite the R midterm. 

The 2 best Dem opportunities by far are TX and FL.  MS is hard but not impossible.  Romney in UT may well seek reelection as an independent and caucus with them (I could even see him going Indie before his current term is over).  Would that count as a Dem gain? 

On the GOP side, West Virginia is almost a sure thing, and Ohio is more likely than not, becoming a sure thing if Brown retires.  Montana probably starts 50/50 with Tester but Lean R if he retires.  Then there are a bunch of dominoes that would fall even in a lean Dem year if the Dem wins while losing ground in the Midwest/rural North (ME, PA, MI, WI, ME). 

I could just barely see net D+1 or D+2 in a 2008 style national environment, but the Midwest can't move much farther away or it becomes impossible.   

I think if it's after 8 years of Trump, anything is possible. 2022 will be an important year for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

[brucejoel99]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

-MT (Tester retires/loses), -OH (Brown retires/loses)

[Person Man]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

-MT (Tester retires/loses), -OH (Brown retires/loses)

Tester nor Brown will retire or lose in that situation.

[brucejoel99]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

-MT (Tester retires/loses), -OH (Brown retires/loses)

Tester nor Brown will retire or lose in that situation.

And Donald Trump couldn't win the Presidency.

To think that they're guaranteed to win is the height of Democratic hubris.

[MT Treasurer]

There's no way.

There is?

-WV (Manchin retires/loses)
+FL, +TX

Very doable if Trump wins reelection.

-MT (Tester retires/loses), -OH (Brown retires/loses)

Tester is favored and Brown could certainly win in another Democratic wave. No one is saying that they’re "guaranteed to win," but there’s no reason to believe that OH and especially MT are not part of the Democrats' absolute best-case scenario in 2024.

I’m not saying that they will net seats, just that it could happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rick Scott will lose reelection,  FL is leaning Biden and if FL votes D in 2020, it can do so again in 2024

[here2view]

They absolutely can if Trump wins this fall:

Pickup: Florida, Texas
Lose: West Virginia

Ohio and Montana are not Safe R, or even Likely R, for 2024 if this situation unfolds.

[Person Man]

They absolutely can if Trump wins this fall:

Pickup: Florida, Texas
Lose: West Virginia

Ohio and Montana are not Safe R, or even Likely R, for 2024 if this situation unfolds.

I would still say they are Tossup at best. I would say Cruz,Brown,Scott, and Tester would have about equal chances.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably not. The Dems have only 2 real pickup opportunities in TX and FL The GOP have WV on lock, are more likely than not picking up MT and OH, and have a realistic chance of winning WI.

[😥]

Obviously, they can.

Manchin will likely retire, so R + 1, but Tester and Brown are strong incumbents who are popular in their states. You can look at 2012, when Romney won Montana by 14 points, Tester still win by 4 points, people in this forum underestimate the power of the Democrats, including Tester, in Montana, as well as the power of Brown in Ohio. Texas and Florida are Pure Tossup, so they can gain 1 seat or 2 (if Manchin wins in West Virginia, almost impossible)