NY-GOV: Who is the next Governor of New York?

[Sir Mohamed]

Letitia James? AG has proven to be a stepping stone for many govs across the country.

I can tell you who won't be gov: DeBlasio.

[Sir Mohamed]

Letitia James? AG has proven to be a stepping stone for many govs across the country.

I can tell you who won't be gov: DeBlasio.

True. I wonder why lieutenant governors don't make it far...

Gavin Newsom, Tate Reevers, Brad Little, Mike Parson, Kay Ivey, Henry McMaster, Ralph Northam, John Carney and Eric Holcomb are govs who were lt. govs at some point and were elected or have succeeded and won an election. Otherwise, lt govs are often powerless with no actual influence of policies. AGs have more opportunities to implement stuff. TX lt gov. is more powerful, but since the state has no term limit, govs stay in office for a long time. Last time NY has elected an lt gov was in 1982 Mario Cuomo. It has elected lt govs before, like Herbert Lehman (and probably more).

Even at the federal levels, just few VPs have become prez without succeeding to office during an ongoing term. Before WWII, VPs were powerless and not considered big names in their party. Those who sought the top job often had little success in even winning their party's nomination. Later on, VPs became more influential and won the nomination, but lost the election trying to succeed a 2 term prez from their party (which has become difficult). Nixon, Humphrey and Gore all lost, only HW was successful. Nixon only later won, Mondale lost as former VP. Biden remains to be seen; he could join Nixon in the very exclusive club of former VPs elected to be prez.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cuomo probably loses reelection in either 2022 or 2026 (either in the primary or general election)

The most likely successor,at least to me are Leticia James (She's a Cuomo ally, if Cuomo decides to retire anytime soon, I expect she'll run), Kathleen Rice, Tom Suozzi and the one realistic Republican candidate right now, Elise Stefanik (if she runs, she'd probably give Cuomo a scare,if not win in a Biden midterm)

LOL, Cuomo isn't losing a GE. Not even close. If there is any chance to retire him against his wish, it's a minor chance in a primary. I don't even see that, unless there is a major scandal.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cuomo probably loses reelection in either 2022 or 2026 (either in the primary or general election)

The most likely successor,at least to me are Leticia James (She's a Cuomo ally, if Cuomo decides to retire anytime soon, I expect she'll run), Kathleen Rice, Tom Suozzi and the one realistic Republican candidate right now, Elise Stefanik (if she runs, she'd probably give Cuomo a scare,if not win in a Biden midterm)

LOL, Cuomo isn't losing a GE. Not even close. If there is any chance to retire him against his wish, it's a minor chance in a primary. I don't even see that, unless there is a major scandal.

No one thought Mario Cuomo would lose in 1994 either.

Stefanik has the profile (Moderate Upstate Republican) to be a threat to Cuomo if she runs in 2022.

That said, Cuomo's biggest problem will be the Democratic Primary. He's going to get a tougher challenge than Zephyr Teachout or Cynthia Nixon (especially Cynthia Nixon) at some point (maybe in 2022.)

It's also possible Cuomo's appointed to something in the Biden Administration (Secretary of Homeland Security and Attorney General both seem plausible to me.), which would leave Kathy Hochul as Governor...and there's a non-zero chance he gets elected President in 2024 as well (I think Biden will only serve one term if he wins)

NY from 1994 is vastly different from 2022 or 2026 and not really comparable. I just don't see how Cuomo, Hochul, James or any Dem loses a GE in the states unless we talk about a - very unrealistic - Roy Moore scenario here.