NY-GOV: Who is the next Governor of New York?

[Suburbia]

Cuomo for life?

[Suburbia]

Letitia James? AG has proven to be a stepping stone for many govs across the country.

I can tell you who won't be gov: DeBlasio.

True. I wonder why lieutenant governors don't make it far...

[Suburbia]

Can you see Cuomo there until 2030?

[Suburbia]

New York has no term limits, which is okay, you can run how long if you are doing a good job

Pataki would have probably lost in 2006, Spitzer would have probably lost in 2010.

[Suburbia]

Tom Suozzi or Harry Wilson?

Wilson is a center-right Republican.

[Suburbia]

New York has no term limits, which is okay, you can run how long if you are doing a good job

Pataki would have probably lost in 2006, Spitzer would have probably lost in 2010.

Had he not been in a Prostitution scandal, Spitzer would have been re-elected in 2010.

Probably, but his approvals by late 2007 was at 30% or something. So he was unpopular even before the scandal broke. I wonder whether David Paterson would have won the primary and general if he stayed in the race in 2010.

Paterson was doomed regardless because Obama & Co., aggressively pushed him out in favor of Cuomo.

You think Paterson would have lost to Lazio?

Probably.

Cuomo will be there til 2027.

Who is his successor? Tom Suozzi? Tish James?

[Suburbia]

Cuomo probably loses reelection in either 2022 or 2026 (either in the primary or general election)

The most likely successor,at least to me are Leticia James (She's a Cuomo ally, if Cuomo decides to retire anytime soon, I expect she'll run), Kathleen Rice, Tom Suozzi and the one realistic Republican candidate right now, Elise Stefanik (if she runs, she'd probably give Cuomo a scare,if not win in a Biden midterm)

LOL, Cuomo isn't losing a GE. Not even close. If there is any chance to retire him against his wish, it's a minor chance in a primary. I don't even see that, unless there is a major scandal.

No one thought Mario Cuomo would lose in 1994 either.

Stefanik has the profile (Moderate Upstate Republican) to be a threat to Cuomo if she runs in 2022.

That said, Cuomo's biggest problem will be the Democratic Primary. He's going to get a tougher challenge than Zephyr Teachout or Cynthia Nixon (especially Cynthia Nixon) at some point (maybe in 2022.)

It's also possible Cuomo's appointed to something in the Biden Administration (Secretary of Homeland Security and Attorney General both seem plausible to me.), which would leave Kathy Hochul as Governor...and there's a non-zero chance he gets elected President in 2024 as well (I think Biden will only serve one term if he wins)

NY from 1994 is vastly different from 2022 or 2026 and not really comparable. I just don't see how Cuomo, Hochul, James or any Dem loses a GE in the states unless we talk about a - very unrealistic - Roy Moore scenario here.

A Republican with suburban appeal and a law and order profile can win, like LiPetri or someone like that.

[Suburbia]

If Cuomo doesn't watch his back, he could lose his reelection as well.

Lee Zeldin could use the law and order thing and sweep upstate.

NY GOV 2022 is Likely D

[Suburbia]

Watch it be a Republican because of course... Biden's midterm is going to be such a bloodbath sadly

It could be if the NYGOP defines Cuomo as a nursing home killer and the NYPD shrinks in terms of force, they'll run law and order, bypass the NYC mayor to cater to Lynch and Mullins

[Suburbia]

It will be a New York Democrat.

In 2026.

A Republican probably won't win until 2030 or 2034