FL ( A/B) University of North Florida - Biden +6

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 31-APR 4, 2020
A/B
University of North Florida
3,244   RV   
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/UNF%20PORL%20COVID-19%20Survey.pdf


Biden 46%
Trump 40%

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news for Biden in FL

[GeorgiaModerate]

This quote is interesting:

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered
voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and
people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election.

[Yank2133]

Oh

[Bidenworth2020]

Stop playing with my heart!

[chibul]

This poll is an outlier. The real numbers is probably Trump ahead 1 or 2.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wouldn't care even if it showed Biden +20 or Trump +20. We are still seven months away from election day.

[ProudModerate2]

That's a huge sample size.
Good news for Joe.

[AGA]

How much does polling all registered voters help Democrats, if at all?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This poll is an outlier. The real numbers is probably Trump ahead 1 or 2.

It certainly could be an outlier (any single poll could be one) but on what do you base this judgement?

[ajc0918]

Biden can win Florida. He's a perfect fit for white moderates in places like Pinellas and Sarasota. If he can hold HRC's margins in Miami-Dade and close the margins in the suburbs he will win.

[Person Man]

Biden can win Florida. He's a perfect fit for white moderates in places like Pinellas and Sarasota. If he can hold HRC's margins in Miami-Dade and close the margins in the suburbs he will win.

That's how Nelson was supposed to win and he didn't do any better than someone who was a poor fit for the state, even with the power of incumbency. Democrats can win in Florida, but they have to both campaign well (like with Nelson didn't do) and show that they are first willing to win voters' trust before coming forward with an ambitious agenda (like what  Gillum failed in waiting for).

[ElectionsGuy]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

[Bidenworth2020]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

Can you please stop with this whole "polls will be wrong every time" shtick just because they were off in 2016? At the very least, maybe you could cite examples that were actually relevant to the topic at hand (it's not like there is any lack of dem-Friendly Florida polls lol). A poll of a state with completely different electoral dynamics is decidedly NOT relevant.

[Sir Mohamed]

I want to believe. Biden winning by 6 isn't happening here. FL polling should be suspicious anyway since almost all pollsters got 2018 wrong.

[Person Man]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

Can you please stop with this whole "polls will be wrong every time" shtick just because they were off in 2016? At the very least, maybe you could cite examples that were actually relevant to the topic at hand (it's not like there is any lack of dem-Friendly Florida polls lol). A poll of a state with completely different electoral dynamics is decidedly NOT relevant.

1) There could be nothing wrong with the methodology and people could be lying.
2) 2016 did have a unique "November Surprise"
3) Undecideds went the way they were supposed to in 2016 but didn't in 2012 or 2004 (Where they were pretty split or went to the incumbent by a small amount). That is, to the challenger by 3:2 to 2:1.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

Can you please stop with this whole "polls will be wrong every time" shtick just because they were off in 2016? At the very least, maybe you could cite examples that were actually relevant to the topic at hand (it's not like there is any lack of dem-Friendly Florida polls lol). A poll of a state with completely different electoral dynamics is decidedly NOT relevant.

1) There could be nothing wrong with the methodology and people could be lying.
2) 2016 did have a unique "November Surprise"
3) Undecideds went the way they were supposed to in 2016 but didn't in 2012 or 2004 (Where they were pretty split or went to the incumbent by a small amount). That is, to the challenger by 3:2 to 2:1.

Mostly agree but but my memory of the Marquette poll was that it was during and after the November Surprise, so Trump actually did lead on the Thursday/Friday numbers which was theorized as Hillary voters not answering the phone, but immediately lost the lead Saturday and Sunday (and was possibly getting decimated on Wednesday?)

[ElectionsGuy]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

Can you please stop with this whole "polls will be wrong every time" shtick just because they were off in 2016? At the very least, maybe you could cite examples that were actually relevant to the topic at hand (it's not like there is any lack of dem-Friendly Florida polls lol). A poll of a state with completely different electoral dynamics is decidedly NOT relevant.

Okay, here's an easy Florida example: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305895.0

I just thought it was funny that it was the exact same margin. In this case, it doesn't really matter since it's a junky poll anyway*. As long as the polls keep showing Biden up but below 50% and/or within margin or error, I'm going to keep reminding people that polls can be misleading, not that the will be wrong. I'll be annoying for a lot of people but I don't care, people need to realize that there are more important things to polls than simply who's in the lead.

*Look at the markets: 22 point lead for Biden in Tampa but 4 points in Miami? 14% won't vote/don't know? How are we supposed to get anything useful out of that?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This seems about right given that Biden is probably winning by 8-10 points nationwide now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This just reaffirms the problem that Trump has with minority voters and having Pence on the ticket, just reaffirms his WWC relations with voters but cant connect with people of color. Trump only won FL and AZ due to Rubio and McCain running for reelection. But it doesnt matter anyways Biden has 256 votes and Trump has 200, Trump isn't gonna win WI, MI or PA anyways and WI and VA will put Biden over 270 anyways.

Bush W squeezed out reelection with 44% of Latino support

[Sir Mohamed]

This just reaffirms the problem that Trump has with minority voters and having Pence on the ticket, just reaffirms his WWC relations with voters but cant connect with people of color. Trump only won FL and AZ due to Rubio and McCain running for reelection. But it doesnt matter anyways Biden has 256 votes and Trump has 200, Trump isn't gonna win WI, MI or PA anyways and WI and VA will put Biden over 270 anyways.

Bush W squeezed out reelection with 44% of Latino support

LOL! This comparison is bizarre to say at least. It's not 2004 anymore and voter coalitions and voting patterns in many states have drastically changed.

[DrScholl]

Trump is going to get destroyed in this election and several people are either too much of a cheerleader for him too see it or too much pessimistic to see it. You can't compare everything to 2016 because Trump is an incumbent now and the idea that he is a newcomer who can bring change is gone. He has brought change, but not good change.

[Bidenworth2020]

What an amazing poll for Biden, at 46%. This reminds me of another poll from another time. Ah yes...
this poll from Marquette in Wisconsin right before the election. I encourage people to read all the responses

Can you please stop with this whole "polls will be wrong every time" shtick just because they were off in 2016? At the very least, maybe you could cite examples that were actually relevant to the topic at hand (it's not like there is any lack of dem-Friendly Florida polls lol). A poll of a state with completely different electoral dynamics is decidedly NOT relevant.

Okay, here's an easy Florida example: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305895.0

I just thought it was funny that it was the exact same margin. In this case, it doesn't really matter since it's a junky poll anyway*. As long as the polls keep showing Biden up but below 50% and/or within margin or error, I'm going to keep reminding people that polls can be misleading, not that the will be wrong. I'll be annoying for a lot of people but I don't care, people need to realize that there are more important things to polls than simply who's in the lead.

*Look at the markets: 22 point lead for Biden in Tampa but 4 points in Miami? 14% won't vote/don't know? How are we supposed to get anything useful out of that?

In fairness, I do think that the Miami Media market includes areas to the west, like Collier, that are much more conservative. That Tampa number is certainly an outlier, though.

[wbrocks67]

What's interesting is that in this particular poll, there is a good amount of undecideds for the minorities, so if you give Biden the majority to those, his lead probably grows to like 8.

The incumbent being at 40% in a swing state poll is horrific. And Trump doesn't have the luxury of assuming many of the undecideds will break for him this time around

[MT Treasurer]

I just thought it was funny that it was the exact same margin. In this case, it doesn't really matter since it's a junky poll anyway*. ...

*Look at the markets: 22 point lead for Biden in Tampa but 4 points in Miami? 14% won't vote/don't know? How are we supposed to get anything useful out of that?

That 14%, even if a little high, is nothing out of the ordinary (the AZ-Monmouth poll showed a similar "won’t vote/don’t know" %). As for the media markets, a poll can have weird crosstabs even if the topline itself is fairly accurate (SUSA is well-known for this pattern, for example), not to mention that the sample size is smaller for each market. Even exit polls aren’t going to give you a completely accurate representation of how each region or demographic voted in a particular race.

Dismissing it as a "junky poll" because of the numbers in two media markets is cherry-picking at its best.  

As long as the polls keep showing Biden up but below 50% and/or within margin or error, I'm going to keep reminding people that polls can be misleading, not that the will be wrong.

I think most people were already aware of the fact that polls can be misleading, so this still doesn’t explain why you constantly feel the urge to remind everyone that "the polls" were wrong before, especially when it’s almost always in a thread discussing a poll showing Trump (or Sanders) underperforming expectations/losing a state. Assuming that a particular polling bias/error will continue indefinitely is a recipe for disaster, but even if we (foolishly) assume that it will, it’s not even like the consensus on this forum is that Biden is going to win FL. Most people here think Trump is favored in FL, with many being hysterical and irrational in their "analysis" of this state in particular.

I'll be annoying for a lot of people but I don't care, people need to realize that there are more important things to polls than simply who's in the lead.

1. I think people realized it the first 164,123 times you pointed it out (or they still haven’t realized it/still don’t care/etc., which means you’re not going to convince them anyway, making your efforts all the more fruitless).  
2. It’s not that Biden is "simply in the lead," it’s that he’s leading by 6 points. I don’t disagree that FL will be closer than that, but it should be pretty obvious to any rational observer that Trump is in serious trouble in FL and that the state is at worst a pure Tossup for Biden, not "Titanium Tilt R" or "Lean/Likely R" or whatever.

What "people" (especially Republicans) actually need to realize is that Trump is pretty much toast if he loses FL and AZ, even if he holds every other state he won in 2016 and flips ME-AL. Trump has no room for error in FL and pretty much no path to 270 without FL, which is why it’s insane for Republicans/"concerned" Democrats to treat FL like it’s much less competitive than PA/WI/MI or to categorically rule out the possibility of FL being the tipping-point state/voting for Biden.