What would've every election since 2000 looked like if elections were 6 months earlier?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What would've every election since 2000 looked like if elections were 6 months earlier?
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Author Topic: What would've every election since 2000 looked like if elections were 6 months earlier?  (Read 629 times)
538Electoral
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« on: April 06, 2020, 03:58:35 AM »

Too lazy to give 2000-2012 but I will do 2016.



307-231
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Comrade Funk
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2020, 10:34:12 AM »

2000

George W. Bush (Republican) - 366
Al Gore (Democratic) - 172

2004

John Kerry (Democratic) - 284
George W. Bush (Republican) - 254

2008

Barack Obama (Democratic) - 278
John McCain (Republican) - 260

2012

Barack Obama (Democratic) - 347
Mitt Romney (Republican) - 191

2016

Hillary Clinton (Democratic) - 322
Donald Trump (Republican) -216
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2020, 10:17:40 PM »

Given Trump's poll numbers collapsed exactly 6 months before the 2016 election (due to Clinton winning the nomination and his race-based attacks on Judge Curiel), undecideds probably break a lot more to Clinton than they did irl. Clinton wins by 6-7 points. The third party vote is also higher.

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 334 EV 49.52%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 204 EV 42.93%

Of course, the dynamics of the race would have been much different were it known in advance that Election Day was 6 months earlier.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2020, 11:50:26 PM »

Also too lazy to do 2000-2012 but here's 2016:



Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 334 EVs, 51.3%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 204 EVs, 44.6%
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