2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Oryxslayer]

My thoughts on what a 6-2 Missouri map will probably look like:

snip

Wouldn't Republicans want to at least shore up the 2nd district by more than that? Trump+7 is not exactly a safe district even if it'd be a heavy lift for Dems.

There's also an argument - probably to be decided by who the legislature prefers to replace Hartzler and where their base is - that the Kansas city seat should be built around the city and itself and it's pieces in 3 or 4 counties, rather than the county of Jackson.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways, here is my attempt at "shoring up the 2nd district" like I mentioned. It's actually harder than it looks. This is a relatively clean map that gives all incumbents their home, although I will admit that it is quite a heavy reconfiguration of most of the map, so they might be angry regardless.

Districts 2 and 3 in this map would be around Trump+19.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/377a39e5-8490-4d1b-885f-56856b9faaa2

[Oryxslayer]

gives all incumbents their home

Reminder that Hartzler and Long are running for senate and the Leg no doubt has preferred replacements for both seats, which will therefore influence the final product.

[Torie]

Anyways, here is my attempt at "shoring up the 2nd district" like I mentioned. It's actually harder than it looks. This is a relatively clean map that gives all incumbents their home, although I will admit that it is quite a heavy reconfiguration of most of the map, so they might be angry regardless.

Districts 2 and 3 in this map would be around Trump+19.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/377a39e5-8490-4d1b-885f-56856b9faaa2

Ann Wagner is not going to want a seat that takes in a bunch or rurals where she might get primaried by a MAGA kook. She wants a CD packed with as many upscale suburbanites as possible, particularly those that while they would vote for her, would vote for a Dem over a MAGA type, so the Pubs know it is either Ann or the highway. One two, three many Ladue's for her. Ladue voted for Biden by the way.  Pubmaderers should pay some attention to district coherence, and mixing in one CD factions of the party that don't get along is not a good idea, particularly in a CD that is somewhat marginal or headed that way.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways, here is my attempt at "shoring up the 2nd district" like I mentioned. It's actually harder than it looks. This is a relatively clean map that gives all incumbents their home, although I will admit that it is quite a heavy reconfiguration of most of the map, so they might be angry regardless.

Districts 2 and 3 in this map would be around Trump+19.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/377a39e5-8490-4d1b-885f-56856b9faaa2

Ann Wagner is not going to want a seat that takes in a bunch or rurals where she might get primaried by a MAGA kook. She wants a CD packed with as many upscale suburbanites as possible, particularly those that while they would vote for her, would vote for a Dem over a MAGA type, so the Pubs know it is either Ann or the highway. One two, three many Ladue's for her. Ladue voted for Biden by the way.  Pubmaderers should pay some attention to district coherence, and mixing in one CD factions of the party that don't get along is not a good idea, particularly in a CD that is somewhat marginal or headed that way.

There’s a reason Stephanie Bice’s seat was not made too rural. She would struggle to survive a primary there. Unfortunately, St. Louis’s suburbs aren’t as strong for Republicans as Oklahoma City’s, so you can’t get to Trump+18 without too many rurals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could the GOP possibly pull a MD-01 where they make district 5 competitive but not a safe R seat while keeping everything else safe?

Also MO-02 will be interesting as Wagner's request could cause a potential problem for the GOP down the road. I wonder if her seat will become more based in heavily suburban R St Charles while a new Southern District takes in the bluer parts of SL County

[Tekken_Guy]

Could the GOP possibly pull a MD-01 where they make district 5 competitive but not a safe R seat while keeping everything else safe?

Also MO-02 will be interesting as Wagner's request could cause a potential problem for the GOP down the road. I wonder if her seat will become more based in heavily suburban R St Charles while a new Southern District takes in the bluer parts of SL County

I just designed something. I put most of Jackson County minus the bluest parts on the Kansas border, and added blood red rurals to get a district that Biden won by only 1,000 votes.
 
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3207647-681a-4c8b-a748-ad39639cec41

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

Wouldn't any realistic map that could produce 7R-1D, also involve the willingness to take that risk?

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

Wouldn't any realistic map that could produce 7R-1D, also involve the willingness to take that risk?

Yes, but with sufficient unpacking you could probably get at least 2 of the 3 marginal seats (Kansas City seats and the STL burbs) to at least Trump+10-15, if not all three. The likelihood of this map failing are simply too high IMO (MO-2 and to a lesser degree MO-6 will probably be tossups by the end of the decade with trends, and MO-5 is marginal from the get-go).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

Wouldn't any realistic map that could produce 7R-1D, also involve the willingness to take that risk?

Yes, but with sufficient unpacking you could probably get at least 2 of the 3 marginal seats (Kansas City seats and the STL burbs) to at least Trump+10-15, if not all three. The likelihood of this map failing are simply too high IMO (MO-2 and to a lesser degree MO-6 will probably be tossups by the end of the decade with trends, and MO-5 is marginal from the get-go).

I've done some edits. But it kind of fails to meet the working condition, because MO-05 isn't really as competitive now...

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

[Torie]

Here is a version that Cori Bush proofs the KC district by making it more marginal, but still Dem, without putting at risk ever any of the other seats,  the Ann Wagner seat is made totally safe, and the map still looks pretty too. I would be shocked if the Pubs actually went after the KC district to snatch it. It just isn't worth it on so many levels. But then Missouri has some Pubs whose brains are wired very differently than mine.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8ef5a94d-2b37-400f-8dd2-c0997c069435

[jamestroll]

I would advise either side to be cautious in redistricting. Part of me wonders if the GOP very modest redistricting is partially due to memories of the 2018 and even 2020 elections. I mean Democrats held seats in 2020 that were unimaginable early in the decade.

I also think MO-02..even if there was no line change at all.. would be more solid for the GOP without Trump.

Missouri suburbs do not have a whole lot of reason to vote Democrat in general. But I would be inclined to believe the new MO-02 could still be competitive if there is a GOP president and Wagner retires. We shall see.

I still maintain an open seat or stronger candidate in MO 02 in 2018 would have probably flipped it.
Some of the Democratic maps may be more inclined for backfiring. See Illinois.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

The idiots do it to themselves. Zero sympathy whatsoever (in fact, they deserve a lot worse for their nightmarish incompetence across the board). Between the NRSC, Republican leadership in Congress, and Republican "redistricting strategists," it’s hard to tell which people in this buffoonish party deserve to lose their jobs first.

[OBD]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

Cope.

[Torie]

Here is a version that Cori Bush proofs the KC district by making it more marginal, but still Dem, without putting at risk ever any of the other seats,  the Ann Wagner seat is made totally safe, and the map still looks pretty too. I would be shocked if the Pubs actually went after the KC district to snatch it. It just isn't worth it on so many levels. But then Missouri has some Pubs whose brains are wired very differently than mine.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8ef5a94d-2b37-400f-8dd2-c0997c069435

Cass County Republicans will be livid about that map, and the Missouri Senate Conservative Caucus would refuse to vote for a map that screws over one of their own (Rick Brattin, candidate for MO-4) like that. Unless Democrats will vote for it, its a probable non-starter.

Also, since you have correctly deduced that a Trump +20 seat with a lot of rurals (MO-6) is not at risk at all, why would a 7-1 configuration be "not worth it on so many levels"? If you take MO-4 down to Trump +22, you can make MO-5 a narrow Trump seat.

7-1 is clearly the correct play if Missouri Republicans actually care about advancing their party agenda. 6-2 only makes sense if you want to make super-duper extra sure that only a few specific people are representing the state or think gerrymandering is morally wrong to the point where unilateral disarmament is correct.

I neither know or care what the local Pub hacks think they want for their care and feeding. It was an abstract exercise. When you slice and dice a metro area like KC, including its black community, to snatch away a seat from a person of color, just because you can get away with it, it becomes a poster child for evil, that will be in every Dem fund raising effort and lawsuit for the balance of the decade, with the only saving grace for redemption being that the odds are more than de minimus, that KC will suddenly start trending fast to the Dems, and an incoherent CD made up or more urban sophisticates and rural rubes, will cause the Pub incumbents pandering to the rubes to underperform to boot, and suddenly two of such Pub incumbents will go down in flames, and AOC will become Speaker of the House as a result. Now let us pray.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

I guess UT, NC, OH, WA and AZ don't exist?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

I guess UT, NC, OH, WA and AZ don't exist?

Don’t forget TX, AL, SC, and GA

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats: We're going to gerrymander every place we can and infiltrate commissions to get back at those evil Republicans for their past gerrymandering.

Republicans: We can't be too impolite and raucous. We better take the L lying down instead of using the limited power we have.

I guess UT, NC, OH, WA and AZ don't exist?

Yes Dems really dropped the ball in WA.  They could have easily deadlocked the commission and maybe the liberal state Supreme Court would have picked a map where WA-08 was made waveproof. 

[Gass3268]

This might be the Missouri congressional map.

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1476660927344754696?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

If so, there appears to have been some favoritism for the Columbia region in the open 4th.

[Gass3268]

MO-02 is probably competative in a Republican midterm. Laser eyes are angry.

[Oryxslayer]

MO-02 is probably competative in a Republican midterm.

It's somewhere from Trump+5 to +8 with close to 50-50 in the 2018 senate race, we would need a zoom to get the exact numbers. Obviously as people noted Wagner wouldn't have wanted a tentacle into rurals, but it feels like there is opportunity left on the table given how other uber-R south suburban counties are still in MO-03. Luetkemeyer appears to have done an inverse of the MD Dems and used his influence to ensure no parts of St. Louis county got added.