2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

KC can be cut 3 ways pretty easily, and it wouldn't look too ugly.  All 3 would be at least Trump+20-25

"Trump + 20-25" is in the "Steve King clone can lose in a Dem wave year" territory. I imagine that some incumbents might be unhappy.

Here's a less aggressive gerrymander with no dummymander risk.  Hartzler takes in some of the Dem leaning suburbs of KC but her district is Trump+34, titanium R.  Even Blunt won it by 18.  Cleaver's seat is now Trump+5, R+2 CVPI.  Tossup/Tilt R.  While making all the KC seats safe takes a pretty aggressive split, Cleaver's seat can easily be made competitive without endangering anyone else or making the map too messy.  I think this district would be extremely vulnerable in 2022.

[Torie]

Well what you actually did was bifurcate KC, not merely detach "Democratic suburbs," which other than Independence, which itself is not heavily Democratic, really don't exist in any material way. Your map if adopted would be hated, not only by those in KC, but the rurals far away that are bound to them. It would cause a backlash, and most probably a state law to shut down such egregious gerrymandering. And for what? A CD that will probably stay Dem anyway. As a partisan Pub, you might think about channeling Mitch McConnell, who tries to think several steps ahead about end games.

As to KC, here is what a gerrymandering light map would look like that probably would not cause a backlash, and moves the KC CD down to about 12 points Clinton over Trump. Anyway, thanks for your interest!

[Idaho Conservative]

Well what you actually did was bifurcate KC, not merely detach "Democratic suburbs," which other than Independence, which itself is not heavily Democratic, really don't exist in any material way. Your map if adopted would be hated, not only by those in KC, but the rurals far away that are bound to them. It would cause a backlash, and most probably a state law to shut down such egregious gerrymandering. And for what? A CD that will probably stay Dem anyway. As a partisan Pub, you might think about channeling Mitch McConnell, who tries to think several steps ahead about end games.

As to KC, here is what a gerrymandering light map would look like that probably would not cause a backlash, and moves the KC CD down to about 12 points Clinton over Trump. Anyway, thanks for your interest!

I question how accurate what you are saying actually is, since KC is already combined with rural areas and Jackson county is already cut, I simply did it differently.  Was there major backlash to the current map? Also, you cut rep Hartzler out of her district.  Your reference to McConnell having a good strategy is laughable.  He singlehandedly handed the Dems the senate by blocking $2k stimulus checks.  

[Greedo punched first]

I created such a lovely map!



Partisanship based on 2016 presidential results.

[Stuart98]

I created such a lovely map!



Partisanship based on 2016 presidential results.

Is the 1st not VRA protected?

[Greedo punched first]

I created such a lovely map!



Partisanship based on 2016 presidential results.

Is the 1st not VRA protected?

I created an illegal racial gerrymander.

[Greedo punched first]

I created such a lovely map!



Partisanship based on 2016 presidential results.

Even assuming the VRA is no longer an issue, there's no reason to make the map that ugly. You can get Trump +18 districts doing this:

I made it that ugly so that every district was won by Roy Blunt in 2016. I'm pretty sure Jason Kander won at least one district on your map.

[Greedo punched first]

I fixed the map population.



Roy Blunt won all the districts in 2016.



2016 presidential results.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at an R gerrymander of Missouri that keeps Kansas City limits itself whole. Sadly I was unable to make this a proper 7-1 map, instead having to go with 6-1-1. I also tried to keep other COIs relatively intact.



MO-01: Clinton+55, D+27, 50% black
MO-02: Trump+25, R+11
MO-03: Trump+25, R+14
MO-04: Trump+18, R+10
MO-05: Trump+3, EVEN
MO-06: Trump+34, R+16
MO-07: Trump+55, R+23
MO-08: Trump+55, R+26

For the record, in 2016 Kander wins the 5th district by double digits, ekes out a narrow win in the 4th district by 0.4% and loses the 2nd district by 4 points and the third by 9 points

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1390349202853617668?s=20

Obvious redistricting implications

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1390349202853617668?s=20

Obvious redistricting implications

probably makes a cracking of KC likelier, as there isn't an incumbent in the mix to placate.

[CookieDamage]

Using 2018 results

https://davesredistricting.org/join/515a145f-70c1-4ca8-9552-602f2281e970

[S019]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1403081325775577094?s=19
Kind of interesting, given how at least one and probably as many three or four incumbents would be retiring to run for Senate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'll belive Republicans won't cut MO 05 when I see it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

The district is still decidedly majority rural by population. When you include Cape Girardeau, it becomes near certain that the 8th would not be dominated by STL suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, but wouldn't they want as pure of a rural seat as they could get?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

The district is still decidedly majority rural by population. When you include Cape Girardeau, it becomes near certain that the 8th would not be dominated by STL suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, but wouldn't they want as pure of a rural seat as they could get?

In the abstract, maybe? But doing that means needlessly sinking a lot of Republican voters to the large detriment of Wagner and Luetkemeyer to the very marginal benefit of... some random state senator or state rep who hasn't even announced yet? It's not even like the portion of STL County and Northern Jefferson being taken in are that culturally dissimilar, North Jefferson and South STL County are very White and working class.

When MO-08 was originally drawn it was only McCain +22. It is now Trump +56. Unless Missouri Republicans are particularly stupid for some reason, they will try to unpack the district at least somewhat.

Would anyone here ever argue that Illinois Democrats wouldn't sacrifice drawing out Kinzinger to better maintain the exclusively Urban character of some of their districts? Kansas Republicans don't seem to have a problem with diluting the rural character of KS-01 - they've all but announced that Wyandotte County will be included with the 1st. Why do only Missouri Republicans have the idiot ball?

Point taken re: parochialism not necessarily being as strong in context of Missouri as I assumed it to be.

[Greedo punched first]

I made a non-dummymander 8R-0D map.

2016 presidential results.


2016 US Senate results.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh god.

Don’t think it’d be worth it for the GOP at the end of the day because of the VRA lawsuit

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 8-district map of Missouri.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.05%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

78/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
84/100 on the Compactness Index
75/100 on County Splitting
100/100 on the Minority Representation index
4/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2016 Missouri Attorney General election (chosen because it is closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Missouri: 5R to 3D

2016 Missouri Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 2D

2016 Missouri Lieutenant Governor Election: 6R to 2D

2016 Missouri Attorney General Election: 6R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Missouri: 6R to 2D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Missouri: 5R to 3D


Opinions?

[cvparty]

I tried my hand at a fair 8-district map of Missouri.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.05%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

78/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
92/100 on the Compactness Index
82/100 on County Splitting
100/100 on the Minority Representation index
4/100 on Dave's competitiveness index.

The map above shows results from the 2016 Missouri Attorney General election (chosen because it is closest to the 2020 US Presidential election).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Missouri: 5R to 3D

2016 Missouri Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 2D

2016 Missouri Lieutenant Governor Election: 6R to 2D

2016 Missouri Attorney General Election: 6R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Missouri: 6R to 2D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Missouri: 5R to 3D


Opinions?

st charles is pretty clearly more related and connected to st louis county than jefferson is

[_.]

-SNIP-


Opinions?

st charles is pretty clearly more related and connected to st louis county than jefferson is

I apologize, I wasn't aware.

I've edited the original map and post I created in order to rectify the issue (the stats are the same for all the elections, and the only difference is the arrangement of MO-2 and MO-3 (surrounding St. Louis).

It drove down my scores the indexes "County Splitting" (even though I still have the same number of county splits) and "Compactness" somewhat, though.

What do you think about the new map?

Image Link to the old map and statistics for those who want

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[a nice map]
snip

You inspired me to see what an ideal "fair-proportional" map would be, with compact districts and county integrity being also important (while also taking CoI into account). In the image, I have the same election depicted [AG 2016].
The map has 1 safe Dem seat (MO-01, black parts of St. Louis City and County+western St. Louis County), 1 likely Dem seat (MO-02, white parts of St. Louis City, all of Jefferson, and the rest of St. Louis County), 1 lean/likely Dem (MO-05, parts of Jackson and all of Cass and Jackson), 1 lean/likely R (MO-06, parts of KC city, rest of KC metro, Columbia, ancestral Dem rurals), and 4 safe GOP seats (MO-03, MO-04, MO-07, MO-08).
If Ds are doing well enough in MO that they'd be closest to 4 seats, they will stand a good chance of winning the 6th. If Rs are having a very good year in MO, they will stand a good chance of winning the 5th. Despite the 2nd being only Clinton+5 I would consider it essentially unwinnable for a Republican, given how strongly Dem St. Louis City is and how Dem the areas neighboring it are.
The 8th and 4th hold almost all of St. Louis far-exurbs, in much the same way most of exurban KC metro is in the 6th.
Only 2 avoidable county splits - 1 in St. Louis City and another in St. Charles, one that I decided to have to avoid an utterly unwieldly 4th wrapping around Columbia.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/22642f79-a625-4b3e-b2a6-9e1464137c42

[Hope For A New Era]

I tried my hand at a fair 8-district map of Missouri.

please stop abusing jackson county like this

[Former President tack50]

Is that a fair map or some sort of gerrymander?