2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Perfectly legal 8R-0D map. Every seat is at least Trump +14. Jason Kander lost every seat. I used water contiguity with no bridges for the purple district. I had the red district block all the bridges.

1: Trump +22, 2: Trump +22, 3: Trump +26, 4: Trump +18, 5: Trump +14, 6: Trump +18, 7: Trump +16, 8: Trump +22

I'm pretty sure you would still need a VRA seat in St. Louis.

Even if this was legal, I am certain this map would produce successful action for non-partisan redistricting in Missouri. MO has this thing called ballot initiatives.

[Zaybay]

Is it illegal? I thought federal courts could not decide partisan gerrymandering issues.

Ignoring the rest of the map, cutting out MO-01 is a case of opaque racial gerrymandering, something that not even a full Republican court could ignore. Its a rather obvious violation of the VRA, and the map would be struck down.

So yes, it is illegal.

[Hope For A New Era]

[image snipped so the quote isn't yuge]
7-1, every Trump district at least 60% Trump.  Wagner is shored up and no incumbent Republican is drawn out of their district, though some will have a lot of new constituents.  I doubt Cleaver even runs with this map,  MO-5 is now Trump+27, an astounding 40 point move to the right.  Even if 2022 is a blue wave he would be a severe underdog. 

Thanks, I hate it.

Perfectly legal 8R-0D map. Every seat is at least Trump +14. Jason Kander lost every seat. I used water contiguity with no bridges for the purple district. I had the red district block all the bridges.

1: Trump +22, 2: Trump +22, 3: Trump +26, 4: Trump +18, 5: Trump +14, 6: Trump +18, 7: Trump +16, 8: Trump +22

[image snipped so the quote isn't yuge]

I'm pretty sure you would still need a VRA seat in St. Louis.

Even if this was legal, I am certain this map would produce successful action for non-partisan redistricting in Missouri. MO has this thing called ballot initiatives.

- Correct, there is a VRA seat.

- Already been done, in 2018. We love those here.

Republicans are trying to undo it, of course. As they do.


It's not hard to create progressive victories in statewide votes here. Just have to out-populist the other side. An Ojeda 2018 type would do very well in Missouri. It seems like Galloway is trying to be an extremely toned-down version of him, which is good.

[I’m not Stu]

What about Rucho v. Common Cause? Federal courts don’t get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. I only looked at partisanship. I didn’t care to look at anything else.

[MaxQue]

What about Rucho v. Common Cause? Federal courts don’t get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. I only looked at partisanship. I didn’t care to look at anything else.

Look up the Voting Rights Act.

[I’m not Stu]

What about Rucho v. Common Cause? Federal courts don’t get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. I only looked at partisanship. I didn’t care to look at anything else.

Look up the Voting Rights Act.

I didn't look at race when drawing the map. All I looked at was GOP strongholds.

[Idaho Conservative]

What about Rucho v. Common Cause? Federal courts don’t get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. I only looked at partisanship. I didn’t care to look at anything else.

Look up the Voting Rights Act.

I didn't look at race when drawing the map. All I looked at was GOP strongholds.

Still not legal.  Tbh I think the VRA is invoked too often in redistricting, but in this case they'd have a legit point. 

[I’m not Stu]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

[dpmapper]

What is the point of these unrealistic maps?  It's not a particularly enlightening exercise; we all know that if you baconstrip a heavily R or heavily D state, ignoring all other considerations, you can get all districts safe R or safe D.  

[Zaybay]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

V
R
A

Nobody in their right mind would uphold it.

[I’m not Stu]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

V
R
A

Nobody in their right mind would uphold it.

Does this map look like one drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats? Could I draw an 7R-1D map with a majority-minority VRA district connecting Kansas City to St. Louis?

[Zaybay]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

V
R
A

Nobody in their right mind would uphold it.

Does this map look like one drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats? Could I draw an 7R-1D map with a majority-minority VRA district connecting Kansas City to St. Louis?

No, it does not look like a map drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats. A baconmander has never been drawn for a state. Ever.

And thats still violating the VRA, and also really pointless from a partisan perspective.

[I’m not Stu]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

V
R
A

Nobody in their right mind would uphold it.

Does this map look like one drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats? Could I draw an 7R-1D map with a majority-minority VRA district connecting Kansas City to St. Louis?

No, it does not look like a map drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats. A baconmander has never been drawn for a state. Ever.

And thats still violating the VRA, and also really pointless from a partisan perspective.

What did the now illegal Dixiecrat maps look like?

[Zaybay]

Should the MOGOP draw this illegal map and hope SCOTUS upholds it, or is there a risk of Thomas and Gorsuch joining the liberals to strike it down? See Cooper v. Harris and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill.

V
R
A

Nobody in their right mind would uphold it.

Does this map look like one drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats? Could I draw an 7R-1D map with a majority-minority VRA district connecting Kansas City to St. Louis?

No, it does not look like a map drawn by Jim Crow-era Dixiecrats. A baconmander has never been drawn for a state. Ever.

And thats still violating the VRA, and also really pointless from a partisan perspective.

What did the now illegal Dixiecrat maps look like?

https://www.google.com/

[I’m not Stu]

Some states used at-large seats. Texas and Alabama did.

[Thunder98]

Here is my 7-1 R map with the 1st district compiling with the VRA and based on the 2016 Prez results. I somehow made the 2nd district with the exact required pop of 761,258!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This election, Trump appears to have prevailed in Missouri's 2nd by a narrow ~3,675 (~0.8%), so Republicans will probably want to radically reconfigure that district.

The solution is simple - pack MO-01 a bit more, recenter the 2nd by giving it all of St. Charles County, and the rest of the map draws itself.

[Idaho Conservative]

This election, Trump appears to have prevailed in Missouri's 2nd by a narrow ~3,675 (~0.8%), so Republicans will probably want to radically reconfigure that district.

Wagner won by a comfortable margin.  Trump+15 (2020) would be a good benchmark, 20 if you wanna be real safe.  Though I doubt many suburban moderates voted Trump this year, except for fast-growing areas, 2020 is likely the floor for Republican performance in the suburbs at the presidential level.

[lfromnj]

Well the trick with gerrymanders as I stated earlier is to mix trends, if you wanted a perfect efficiently gerrymander you would mix the lead belt +Jefferson county with the most left trending parts of the St.louis burbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a relatively clean MO 7-1 map. 5 and 4 are both Trump + 15ish so thy should both hold through the decade.

[kwabbit]

Missouri Fair Map:


I'm guessing MO-2 was very close in this past election. Trump +7 in 2016.

Missouri GOP Gerrymander:


All red districts are Trump +20 or above. I don't know if there's a more elegant way to achieve this without splitting Jackson County 3 ways.

Missouri Dem Gerrymander:

I tried drawing 3 Dem seats in the St. Louis area but I don't think it's possible without snakes. Same in the KC area with 2 seats. This guarantees 3 Dem seats while still keeping the VRA district in St. Louis. 40% Black, which should be performing.

[Torie]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

Nice, clean map. Definitely fits the role of "partisan gerry that looks very clean" like a glove.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

KC can be cut 3 ways pretty easily, and it wouldn't look too ugly.  All 3 would be at least Trump+20-25

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

KC can be cut 3 ways pretty easily, and it wouldn't look too ugly.  All 3 would be at least Trump+20-25

"Trump + 20-25" is in the "Steve King clone can lose in a Dem wave year" territory. I imagine that some incumbents might be unhappy.