COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/


Data as of Apr. 10 at 4:32 a.m.

Cases:

Deaths:



Cases and Deaths, per state, raw:

Cases and Deaths, per state, per capita:





Totally 1,783 deaths were registered yesterday, of which 56% are from NY + NJ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1248322686935273472

https://twitter.com/charlesornstein/status/1248367406210330624

[wbrocks67]

WTF is DeSantis doing over there

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1248425413379932161

[Roll Roons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492142-california-sees-first-decrease-in-coronavirus-icu-hospitalizations?fbclid=IwAR1ExmmRfVpLL0KJ12ajdJWvwFoaUw_1e5GGYf6Sl2581-LfrxI7Sqs_a-w

California apparently had fewer hospitalizations on Thursday than they did on Wednesday.

[wbrocks67]

Trump coronavirus approval, via ABC/Ipsos poll

March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)

abcnews.go.com/Politics/half-americans-wear-masks-coronavirus-normal-takes-hold/story?id=70073942&cid=social_twitter_abcn

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247733104313319425
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1247735553182883840

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=19

That's one way to try to hide the numbers: quit supporting tests all together. So, in what way would our handling be better than China's at that point?

F**ked up move.

In Texas, about 6% of tests have been conducted by public labs, and that includes state, county, and city labs, and that share has been declining.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

[DaWN]

He'll still win by 0.1% in 2022

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

WTF is DeSantis doing over there

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1248425413379932161

From the article.

In reality, the CDC reports on its website that four people between the ages of 15 and 24 and one person between the ages of one and four have died. CNN has also reported on the death of a newborn in Connecticut on April 1 and an infant in Illinois last month whose death is being investigated as possibly caused by the virus.

What a liar!

He said 0, but in fact it was 5! It completely changes his point that your policies should be based on this fact!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

[wbrocks67]

WTF is DeSantis doing over there

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1248425413379932161

From the article.

In reality, the CDC reports on its website that four people between the ages of 15 and 24 and one person between the ages of one and four have died. CNN has also reported on the death of a newborn in Connecticut on April 1 and an infant in Illinois last month whose death is being investigated as possibly caused by the virus.

What a liar!

He said 0, but in fact it was 5! It completely changes his point that your policies should be based on this fact!

well... yes. he lied. there HAS been people that have died, even if it's only 5. he shouldn't say there haven't been "any", because that is... factually... a straight up lie

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

I suspect that you're correct, and that he's conflating the number of deaths in people under 25 (small, but nonzero) with the number of confirmed cases (considerably larger).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

What is known about these 5? What were their characteristics? How many of them lacked an at-risk factor?

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

That is just an assumption not backed up by facts.

The actual facts are that Trump and the government he leads screwed up the testing and allowed the virus to circulate unchecked in the country until it was too late. So now we had to screw our economy to get this thing under control. Trump can redeem himself if he can ramp up testing and medical supplies by May 1st so we can get the economy opened up again. And we better be prepared when the second wave hits, whether that is in May after the country is opened, or in September/October as the weather gets colder. If we aren't prepared a second time Trump will get drubbed in the election.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

In Russia, there is a joke.

вы не рефлексируйте
вы распространяйте
пусть отбиваются

Which translates ~

don't reflect (about the message)
just spread (the message)
let them defend themselves.

[Sbane]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492142-california-sees-first-decrease-in-coronavirus-icu-hospitalizations?fbclid=IwAR1ExmmRfVpLL0KJ12ajdJWvwFoaUw_1e5GGYf6Sl2581-LfrxI7Sqs_a-w

California apparently had fewer hospitalizations on Thursday than they did on Wednesday.

Social distancing works. So will testing, contact tracing and surveillance if we can get our act together and get it in place.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

In Russia, there is a joke.

вы не рефлексируйте
вы распространяйте
пусть отбиваются

Which translates ~

don't reflect (about the message)
just spread (the message)
let them defend themselves.

Egh, GM is a magnificent poster who is humble and non-snarky about his opinions.  

We all slip-up here and there.  

But I'll keep that mantra in mind, RB. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at it a little further, I suspect that Cate may have gotten his "hundreds of deaths" from this WP article: Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows.  It finds "at least 759 people under age 50" have died as of April 8, breaking it down to "at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s."  Under 25 is a much lower cutoff, obviously.  Also interestingly, the WP finds at least 9 deaths under age 20, in contrast to the CDC's 5.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

That is just an assumption not backed up by facts.

The actual facts are that Trump and the government he leads screwed up the testing and allowed the virus to circulate unchecked in the country until it was too late. So now we had to screw our economy to get this thing under control. Trump can redeem himself if he can ramp up testing and medical supplies by May 1st so we can get the economy opened up again. And we better be prepared when the second wave hits, whether that is in May after the country is opened, or in September/October as the weather gets colder. If we aren't prepared a second time Trump will get drubbed in the election.

Haha, I asked you about the sources of your assumption that "government he leads screwed up the testing" and I still haven't got anything.


IMO, as I said, there was a structural problem with CDC and stockpiling of chemicals. It doesn't depend on who is in WH.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/us-coronavirus-tests-invs/index.html
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

So if you think Hillary would do any better, you have to assume that she would start to stockpile chemicals in 2016 and override Fauci/CDC in 2020. IMO, not realistic at all.

The fact is that Trump restricted flights from China, which probably explains a ~2 week lag from Europe. The fact is it was against experts' advice and was his nationalistic hunch. He was criticized by experts, Democrats and their Media, so (D) president likely wouldn't do it.


German economy is likely to be initially screwed even more by the way (because of higher reliance on exports, perhaps).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

Small sample size but a sample of early infected people in NYC found 2/3 of them were infected from European visitors (of which on any given year there will be much, much more of than Chinese visitors).

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1248351088438370304

[FrancoAgo]

Edit: The link is a rather brief summary of the results. No information about the subpopulations, no information about confidence intervals. I am going to assume the researchers know what they are doing, but some things to keep in mind.

- The sample size is 1000, but in 400 households. Clearly all participants are not independent, so confidence intervals would be (much) higher than 1000 person study with truly independent participants.
- There is some talk that Germans criteria for a Covid death are much stricter than most other countries. Nothing unreasonable, but something people need to be aware off. 

I saw, and i'm agree on your observations

add a observation
Lombardy nursing homes have a mortality rate of 3%, note mortality rate non fatality rate

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

Small sample size but a sample of early infected people in NYC found 2/3 of them were infected from European visitors (of which on any given year there will be much, much more of than Chinese visitors).

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1248351088438370304

Yes. The 2 week lag that I mentioned depends probably on that.


Without flight restrictions:
China >>> US

With:
China >>> Europa >>> US


Isn't it a reasonable assumption?


As I said earlier, Trump should have restricted flights from Europa earlier and should have restricted inside US as well. A big mistake, he didn't.