Can Democrats win the Senate while loosing the Presidency?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.

2022 the Democrats could lose NH or NV, depending upon who the canidate is on the R side, plus, if Kelly wins AZ, he might lose in 2022, but we'll have to see how big of a margin he wins by (if he wins of course). The Republcians don't have any senate seats in states with blue PVIs, so Democrats would need about an even wave year to pick up seats. My way too early 2022 senate map in a red wave year:                                                       

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1iwi

[Lechasseur]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.

2022 the Democrats could lose NH or NV, depending upon who the canidate is on the R side, plus, if Kelly wins AZ, he might lose in 2022, but we'll have to see how big of a margin he wins by (if he wins of course). The Republcians don't have any senate seats in states with blue PVIs, so Democrats would need about an even wave year to pick up seats. My way too early 2022 senate map in a red wave year:                                                       

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1iwi

I don't think the GOP really has much of a bench left in NV do they? And anyway it seems like NV is becoming more and more Democratic. Maybe Sandoval? He's the only potential GOP nominee who could win in NV I can think of.

Yeah I forgot about AZ on the other hand. I think Mark Kelly wins in 2020 but we'll have to see what happens in the 2022 AZ Senate race. I think there's a better chance of the GOP taking the AZ seat back than the NV one.

[Lechasseur]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.

2022 the Democrats could lose NH or NV, depending upon who the canidate is on the R side, plus, if Kelly wins AZ, he might lose in 2022, but we'll have to see how big of a margin he wins by (if he wins of course). The Republcians don't have any senate seats in states with blue PVIs, so Democrats would need about an even wave year to pick up seats. My way too early 2022 senate map in a red wave year:                                                       

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1iwi

Otherwise, I can't get your map to load. Which states do you predict will flip in 2022?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.

2022 the Democrats could lose NH or NV, depending upon who the canidate is on the R side, plus, if Kelly wins AZ, he might lose in 2022, but we'll have to see how big of a margin he wins by (if he wins of course). The Republcians don't have any senate seats in states with blue PVIs, so Democrats would need about an even wave year to pick up seats. My way too early 2022 senate map in a red wave year:                                                       

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1iwi

I don't think the GOP really has much of a bench left in NV do they? And anyway it seems like NV is becoming more and more Democratic. Maybe Sandoval? He's the only potential GOP nominee who could win in NV I can think of.

Yeah I forgot about AZ on the other hand. I think Mark Kelly wins in 2020 but we'll have to see what happens in the 2022 AZ Senate race. I think there's a better chance of the GOP taking the AZ seat back than the NV one.

You may be correct about that, I honestly can't realy tell if NV is trending D or R at this point. In 2018, the Democrats flipped a senate seat there by only 5 points, it does have a slightly blue tinged PVI, and it did vote slightly to the left of the country in 2016. I'm curious to see how well Biden does there in 2020. I would say NV has a PVI of about D+2 at this point, plus CCM gets a 2 point incumbency advantage, meaning anything about a R+4 year means NV leans R. It's really too early to say though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.

2022 the Democrats could lose NH or NV, depending upon who the canidate is on the R side, plus, if Kelly wins AZ, he might lose in 2022, but we'll have to see how big of a margin he wins by (if he wins of course). The Republcians don't have any senate seats in states with blue PVIs, so Democrats would need about an even wave year to pick up seats. My way too early 2022 senate map in a red wave year:                                                       

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1iwi

Otherwise, I can't get your map to load. Which states do you predict will flip in 2022?

My prediction for a Republican Wave is:

Safe R:
AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MO, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Likely R:
FL, GA

Lean R:
NC, PA, WI

Tilt R:
AZ, NV

Tilt D:
NH

Lean D:
CO

Likely D:
CT

Safe D:
CA, HI, IL, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

Awful Senate map, Baldwin, Kaine, Stabenow,  Manchin, Brown and Casey won in a Obama and Biden reelection yr in 2012, it's the same map, 2012, 2018 and 2024.

[Ogre Mage]

Doubtful.  Alabama is almost a certain loss.  I could still see us winning Colorado and Arizona regardless of the Presidential result.  Possibly Maine and North Carolina although that is a bigger stretch.  I cannot see us winning Montana with a Trumpvirus victory.  That would put us at a net gain of +3, which would mean the new Senate is 50-50.  But if Trumpvirus is still President, VP Pence breaks the tie. 

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, the Loeffler scandal makes it much more plausible than before, by making it next to impossible for anyone to win the GA special outright in November.

So, lets say Trump wins narrowly (narrowly enough that he doesn't also bring James in MI or the NH challenger over the line with him).  CO easily flips and Biden wins AZ, so AZ flips pretty easily as well.  However, AL also easily flips, so Dems need 2 more.  Between ME, NC, MT with Bullock, a likely race against Kobach in KS, and the potential for Ossoff to take the other GA seat to a run off as well, there's enough opportunity out there.  They need to net 2 more in November or send both GA seats to a runoff. 

Assuming a Trump reelection, expect historic Dem turnout in any GA runoffs, to the point they might even be favored. 

[Ogre Mage]

Yes, the Loeffler scandal makes it much more plausible than before, by making it next to impossible for anyone to win the GA special outright in November.

So, lets say Trump wins narrowly (narrowly enough that he doesn't also bring James in MI or the NH challenger over the line with him).  CO easily flips and Biden wins AZ, so AZ flips pretty easily as well.  However, AL also easily flips, so Dems need 2 more.  

Actually we would need 3 more.  Dems winning CO and AZ while losing AL would put us at 48.  But if Trump wins, VP Pence breaks ties in the Senate, so we would need to get to 51 for outright control.  That's why I am pessimistic.

[Flyersfan232]

No