Can Democrats win the Senate while loosing the Presidency?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right now, most people say the presidential election is a tossup and Democrats have about a 1/3 chance of winning the senate, but the assumption has been the senate majoirty comes with a Biden victory. Is there anyway that Dems could iwn the senate without Biden winning?

[Water Hazard]

Almost certainly not. If Trump is winning re-election, I have a hard time seeing Democrats picking up anything other than CO (and maybe AZ in a close race).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Almost certainly not. If Trump is winning re-election, I have a hard time seeing Democrats picking up anything other than CO (and maybe AZ in a close race).

What if they lost AL, picked up CO, AZ, NC because Biden comes within striking distance if winning the state and Tillis underpwerforms Trump by a point or two, and they also pick up ME because Collins shoots herself in the foot again, and GA (Special) goes to runoff and dems win as a negative reaction to Trump winning the presidency. Imagin the EC is close and Biden loses WI, PA, but wins AZ, and comes clsoer than expected in GA and NC.

[Roll Roons]

Unlikely, since Alabama is a near-certain loss and Michigan could very well flip if Trump wins the state again. They'd still be favored in Colorado and have at least a 50-50 chance in Arizona, but if Trump wins, I have a hard time seeing them pick up North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia regular, or Texas. However, it's possible that the Georgia special goes to a runoff, and in that case, they might go all in on it. Even then, that would be a two-seat net gain at most, which would result in a 51-49 balance.  

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, actually, and I don’t even think the path is particularly difficult. I could see Bullock and Cunningham winning narrowly even if Trump wins reelection, and AZ + CO are going to flip regardless of what happens in the presidential race. Peters is very vulnerable and by no means unbeatable, but James is running a terrible campaign, so Republicans have no one to blame but themselves if they lose this one in a Trump reelection.

If Jones loses, they’ll still need one other seat, most likely one of GA (runoff), ME, and KS. It’s a narrow path but it’s doable.

[Water Hazard]

Almost certainly not. If Trump is winning re-election, I have a hard time seeing Democrats picking up anything other than CO (and maybe AZ in a close race).

What if they lost AL, picked up CO, AZ, NC because Biden comes within striking distance if winning the state and Tillis underpwerforms Trump by a point or two, and they also pick up ME because Collins shoots herself in the foot again, and GA (Special) goes to runoff and dems win as a negative reaction to Trump winning the presidency. Imagin the EC is close and Biden loses WI, PA, but wins AZ, and comes clsoer than expected in GA and NC.

That's probably the most realistic scenario for this to happen, but you'd have to run the table on all of those events happening, which put together just seems to be pretty unlikely. Collins would really only need a fraction of the crossover appeal that she's used to given that ME would probably be close. A sufficient Tillis underperformance of Trump is also a tall order.

GA-Special is an interesting case, given that it's basically guaranteed to go to a runoff. Though the runoffs historically have favored Republicans, Democrats could be fired up enough after a Trump re-election victory to close the gap (though that didn't happen in the 2018 SoS runoff). I'd say that's likelier than ME or NC flipping in a Trump re-election just because of that uncertainty.

[brucejoel99]

Plausible, but not at all likely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yup i see them winning CO , AZ, ME even if they lose the presidency though I do have them losing AL. That makes the path also winning MT and GA Special

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

After coronavirus,  Dems are likely to get all three branches,  trifecta

[woodystick]

I think it is possible only because of Steve Bullock, since that election won't be influenced by the presidential contest as much. Before that I would have said not chance. I could see them holding on to all their incumbents except Doug Jones, and picking up seats in Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

[Sir Mohamed]

Very, very unlikely. Trump could win reelection with Dems gaining CO, ME and AZ-special while we lose AL. That's still a 51-49 GOP senate. Bullock and Cunningham aren't winning if Biden loses the GE. BUT Dems are very likely to win the senate in 2022 in case Mr. Trump return to the WH for a 2nd term.

[Orser67]

It's very unlikely, but not impossible, especially given that GA could have two separate run-off Senate elections that could almost act like de facto special elections (which often go poorly for the president's party).

[The Mikado]

I think there's a credible, if tricky, path to 50-50, but while 50-50 is Dems take Senate territory under a President Biden, it isn't under a Trump 2nd term.

50-50 Senate would be tricky for McConnell to handle, but at least it'd keep Pence occupied.

[Lechasseur]

Oh definitely so. I was actually talking about this last night.

I can see Trump winning while the Dems take back the Senate, on the other hand I cannot see Biden winning while the GOP holds the Senate.

First of all, the GOP I believe are maxed out in terms of the Senate bar a Trump landslide, and then in the competitive states the Democratic nominees are just simply much, much stronger candidates than the Republican ones for the most part.

I suspect Trump will outrun the GOP Senate candidates in almost all the states with a competitive Senate race this year (the exception being Maine ofc, and there it's also the opposite in terms of candidate quality; Collins I think is a better candidate but I think Maine's Democratic lean may well be too much for her to overcome this time, while I think all the other states with competitive races will be more or less swing States where the election will be close one way or the other so there candidate quality matters imo).

Unless Trump wins fairly convincingly I think the Senate will be taken back by the Democrats.

Funnily enough, just a few months ago I thought the Senate was Safe R, but definitely not now. I'll be cautious and rate it Tilt D as of now.

[voice_of_resistance]

I think unlikely, but not impossible.

AZ, CO, MT, ME, and NC can all flip even if Trump is re-elected, there is enough residual ticket-splitting in North Carolina for something like this to happen. This would get Dems to 51, but is very unlikely. Honestly for Dem prospects in 2022 this is the best scenario. No more racist judges, and a true blue tsunami when Dems can flip the seats of dirtbags like Toomey/Johnson/Rubio/Portman/etc

[redjohn]

Well, let's think about Senate seats that could flip to Dems if Trump won a narrow re-election.

CO, AZ, and ME are plausible flips even if Trump won re-election. But Dems would still need to flip two more seats, and if Trump's winning re-election that's not going to happen imo. The only realistic path to flipping the Senate is a Biden EC victory.

[Gracile]

It's not likely, but the Democrats do have a non-insignificant path. Bullock entering the Montana race and the Georgia runoff (which could see a big special election advantage for Democrats not unlike what happened in 2017/2018) are certainly helpful.

[Former President tack50]

Not a likely scenario but it can happen. I imagine something like this would be the result?

Option 1: The "likely R states insulate themselves extremely well from national trends and "candidate quality" means Dems flip the Senate

President



Senate



Option 2: Dems improve in the South by a lot, but still lose the election

President



Senate



Given how split ticket voting seems to be dying I imagine the 2nd scenario is a more realistic one?

The 2nd scenario still requires split ticket voting though (with MI and NH voting Trump but Dem for Senate)

[หมูเด้ง]

I think the best Democrats can do, realistically, if Biden's going down is to get into strike distance in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the best Democrats can do, realistically, if Biden's going down is to get into strike distance in 2022.

If Biden won without the senate, it would take a long time for Democrats to get control of the senate since 2022 is an R wave year, Republicans net 1 or 2 seats, the 2024 senate map seems impossible to net seats for Democrats, Republicans pick up another 2, 2026 would be an R wave year if Biden got re-elected, Republicans pickup MI and ME, another 2, and 2028 Democrats would actually have a very favorable senate map, but by then Republicans would have control of either the house or presidency, maybe even both

[หมูเด้ง]

I think the best Democrats can do, realistically, if Biden's going down is to get into strike distance in 2022.

If Biden won without the senate, it would take a long time for Democrats to get control of the senate since 2022 is an R wave year, Republicans net 1 or 2 seats, the 2024 senate map seems impossible to net seats for Democrats, Republicans pick up another 2, 2026 would be an R wave year if Biden got re-elected, Republicans pickup MI and ME, another 2, and 2028 Democrats would actually have a very favorable senate map, but by then Republicans would have control of either the house or presidency, maybe even both

I don't think Biden is winning without the senate.

[Lechasseur]

I think the best Democrats can do, realistically, if Biden's going down is to get into strike distance in 2022.

If Biden won without the senate, it would take a long time for Democrats to get control of the senate since 2022 is an R wave year, Republicans net 1 or 2 seats, the 2024 senate map seems impossible to net seats for Democrats, Republicans pick up another 2, 2026 would be an R wave year if Biden got re-elected, Republicans pickup MI and ME, another 2, and 2028 Democrats would actually have a very favorable senate map, but by then Republicans would have control of either the house or presidency, maybe even both

I don't think Biden is winning without the senate.

Yeah, if the Senate stays GOP it means Trump won reelection.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

[Lechasseur]

Dems arent losing the Presidency and winning the Senate. All the battlegrounds have strong candidates except in TX and even McGrath has a chance.  The Senate maps in 2022 and 2024 are equally bad for the R majority

2022 will be an R wave year if Biden wins, and there aren't R incumebnts in super-D leaning states. 2024 is an awful senate map for the Democrats and it'll be in a presidential year.

If the Dems take the Senate in 2020, they'll keep it for at least 4 years imo.

I think the GOP maxxed out in 2016, I don't think they can really gain any seats in the Senate in 2022.

The only Senate seat I could see flipping to the GOP in 2022 is the NH seat if Sununu runs for it, but even then it isn't a given.