MI, OH, PA, WI (Change Research/Rust Belt Rising) - Trump ahead in all but MI
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  MI, OH, PA, WI (Change Research/Rust Belt Rising) - Trump ahead in all but MI		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MI, OH, PA, WI (Change Research/Rust Belt Rising) - Trump ahead in all but MI  (Read 1802 times)
Mail-order President
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« on: April 03, 2020, 07:26:58 PM »
OHIO
Trump 52% (+8)
Generic Dem 44%

WISCONSIN
Trump 49% (+4)
Generic Dem 45%

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 50% (+3)
Generic Dem 47%

MICHIGAN
Generic Dem 48% (+1)
Trump 47%

3/21-3/23
https://rustbeltrising.com/files/March2020RBRpoll.pdf
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2020, 07:50:08 PM »
>Change Research
>Generic D
>March 21-23

...but yeah, it’s pretty obvious that Democrats can’t afford to ignore FL/GA/NC/AZ. Some combination of those states could save the day for them if things go south in the Midwest, and FL + AZ in particular is a very underrated Democratic path to 270.
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AGA
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2020, 07:54:12 PM »
Not good. Doesn't Generic Dem usually do well?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2020, 07:54:47 PM »
Trump's strength in PA is surprising, WI is depressing but not surprising. This election is over.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2020, 07:55:11 PM »
Oof. Dems can't even beat him in a recession.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2020, 07:56:55 PM »
Quote from: Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 03, 2020, 07:54:47 PM
Trump's strength in PA is surprising, WI is depressing but not surprising. This election is over.

The election isnt over, all the states except OH are within margin of error
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2020, 07:58:25 PM »
Change Research continues to be absolute junk. There is no scenario where Trump beats his 2016 margins in places like PA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2020, 07:58:44 PM »
No wonder why they only show natl polls, they dont show state by state polls.

Biden is a failure
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2020, 08:04:18 PM »
Where the hell is Trump picking up so much support in PA? There was a poll a while back that showed him doing poorly in Erie county, there's no way he's doing significantly better in the Philly suburbs and I believe Luzerne is maxed out for the time being. Lackawanna?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2020, 08:05:41 PM »
Trump is gonna win Pa
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2020, 08:09:35 PM »
Quote from: Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 03, 2020, 08:04:18 PM
Where the hell is Trump picking up so much support in PA? There was a poll a while back that showed him doing poorly in Erie county, there's no way he's doing significantly better in the Philly suburbs and I believe Luzerne is maxed out for the time being. Lackawanna?

This question doesn't need answering b/c it's not true, b/c the poll is junk. Same poll has Democrats winning the GCB by 1%. They won it by 10% in 2018.
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chibul
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« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2020, 08:21:08 PM »
I'm skeptical of any poll that instead of having the nominee has "Generic Democrat"
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2020, 08:44:12 PM »
Continues to show a widening gap between Michigan and the others. 
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2020, 08:50:00 PM »
Y'alls handwringing over a CHANGE research poll is frankly embarrassing
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: April 03, 2020, 08:51:59 PM »
Quote from: CookieDamage on April 03, 2020, 08:50:00 PM
Y'alls handwringing over a CHANGE research poll is frankly embarrassing

Whole bunch of recent polls now with Trump leading in WI and PA.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2020, 08:58:38 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on April 03, 2020, 08:51:59 PM
Quote from: CookieDamage on April 03, 2020, 08:50:00 PM
Y'alls handwringing over a CHANGE research poll is frankly embarrassing

Whole bunch of recent polls now with Trump leading in WI and PA.

Lmao barely... He's down in the marquette poll and he's only up by more than 1 point in those states in crummy GOP polls.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: April 03, 2020, 09:44:45 PM »
OH isnt a swing state as Dems hoped, its gonna vote R
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2020, 11:08:57 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate Spark on April 03, 2020, 07:55:11 PM
Oof. Dems can't even beat him in a recession.

Love how Bernie Bros cherry pick literally one poll with the Democrat losing.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2020, 11:10:16 PM »
Quote from: Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 03, 2020, 07:54:47 PM
Trump's strength in PA is surprising, WI is depressing but not surprising. This election is over.

Based on one Change Research poll that’s two weeks old? Ok.

We’ve barely had any high quality polls come out of PA.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2020, 11:28:43 PM »
Quote from: #Bidemings2020 on April 03, 2020, 11:10:16 PM
Quote from: Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 03, 2020, 07:54:47 PM
Trump's strength in PA is surprising, WI is depressing but not surprising. This election is over.

Based on one Change Research poll that’s two weeks old? Ok.

We’ve barely had any high quality polls come out of PA.

If only Private Policy Polling released stuff at the same rate as in 2012.
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iceman
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« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2020, 11:51:19 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2020, 11:54:35 PM by iceman »
In atlas land, any poll that doesn't go the DEMS way is dismissed as fake. lol
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2020, 11:52:02 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on April 03, 2020, 07:50:08 PM
>Change Research
>Generic D
>March 21-23

...but yeah, it’s pretty obvious that Democrats can’t afford to ignore FL/GA/NC/AZ. Some combination of those states could save the day for them if things go south in the Midwest, and FL + AZ in particular is a very underrated Democratic path to 270.

2020 is really shaping up to be a scenario where a bunch of states vote very similarly.

Like, I wouldn’t be surprised if WI, MI, PA, NH, NC, GA, FL, AZ, MN, ME, and TX all vote within the same 5-point margin. In fact, I’m very confident in everything besides the last 3 (MN/ME/TX).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2020, 12:31:35 AM »
Joke polls.

Gen. Eric DeMocrat is not on the ballot. Biden is.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2020, 12:48:17 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 04, 2020, 12:31:35 AM
Joke polls.

Gen. Eric DeMocrat is not on the ballot. Biden is.

Biden doesnt generae enough enthusiasm that's why he is having a hard time finding a Veep
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2020, 02:38:29 AM »
Quote from: #Bidemings2020 on April 03, 2020, 11:08:57 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate Spark on April 03, 2020, 07:55:11 PM
Oof. Dems can't even beat him in a recession.

Love how Bernie Bros cherry pick literally one poll with the Democrat losing.

Because he's a Sanders Republican. What did you expect?
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