2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida  (Read 55392 times)
Torie
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« Reply #250 on: November 29, 2021, 11:58:35 AM »
« edited: November 29, 2021, 12:08:03 PM by Torie »


This is what I was expecting from the beginning.  

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

Here is a link to the map that snatches two more seats for the Pubs where you can layer it. It seems skillfully done, but with that said, I don't really see how it can be plausibly marketed to FLOTUS as something other than an unduly favors map. It would be interesting to find our or surmise what the Pub talking points would be here, assuming they plan to bother with talking points rather than assuming the court is as hackish as they are.

https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=60dc96cf568f4090ae064d57aa434645


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UncleSam
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« Reply #251 on: November 29, 2021, 12:07:12 PM »

The funny thing is even with how tilted this map is it’s infinitely better than NC or OH (and somewhat better than TX). Tons of competitive districts / districts that could fall in a D wave, and even in a neutral year 17/10/1 isn’t 13/2.

Do Dems have any recourse in this process? I’m assuming no because I believe the FLSC is conservative if I recall correctly, but just wondering.
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« Reply #252 on: November 29, 2021, 12:21:44 PM »



This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

And it does so without going into Sabatini’s home-base of Lake.

I wonder what’s keeping them from drawing out FL-13 though?
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« Reply #253 on: November 29, 2021, 12:44:33 PM »


This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

This is Republican favored for sure but definitely not the most egregious gerrymander I've ever seen. Several districts like FL-6, FL-15, FL-27, FL-28, Trump won by less than 5. Sure they will go Republican in 2022 but the whole decade won't be like that and in a year like 2018 they could go Democratic. Maybe this is a deliberate attempt to create competitive districts so that the FL Supreme Court doesn't strike it down. I find the Texas map a far worse gerrymander since all R districts are safe and it would take a tidal wave for the Dems to chip away at it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #254 on: November 29, 2021, 02:18:22 PM »

The FL State House proposes a 17 Trump - 11 Biden , in a GOP year could become 19R-9D.
 


The real shocker here is the decision to axe the Palm beach part of FL-20. The arm is no longer needed for minority access - the numbers are now there for Broward alone as is done here - but shear inertia and the benefits to packing disparate minority communities into a single seat should normally outweigh the desire for change.
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« Reply #255 on: November 29, 2021, 03:52:28 PM »



This is what I was expecting from the beginning.   

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

Honestly looking at this map it could very likely end up a 12/13 democratic map if the Orlando and Tampa area seats trend blue along with one of the other marginal seats (Hialeah, Key West seats especially)
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« Reply #256 on: November 29, 2021, 04:49:03 PM »

Not sure what the plan with that 15th is. Not only is that basically guaranteed to not be R-held all decade it probably won't even be R-leaning at the end of the decade.
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« Reply #257 on: November 29, 2021, 04:55:28 PM »

Dang I didn’t realize how tiny a downtown Orlando seat would be.

Anyways ye seems like at the very least 13 will still be competitive and FL-5 ain’t going anywhere. The thing about FL is Dems aren’t really packed into cities the same way they are traditionally on other states, especially in Orlando and Tampa, which is why in Tampa’s case creating swing seats may actually help the GOP if done right. A reminder that Hilsboro county shifted slightly right in 2020. Seems to be the consensus though that Miami Metro will get 5 D seats + FL-5, it’s really what the GOP does in central FL.
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Torie
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« Reply #258 on: November 29, 2021, 07:40:48 PM »

Not sure what the plan with that 15th is. Not only is that basically guaranteed to not be R-held all decade it probably won't even be R-leaning at the end of the decade.

The alternative per previous maps, was to cede it now. One thing that is fascinating is forecasting political trends, and with what level of confidence, and by whom, and how much of that is influencing how the lines are drawn.
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« Reply #259 on: November 29, 2021, 08:15:21 PM »

These new maps by the Florida House are just more proof that the center of African Americans in the Miami metro is shifting from Miami Gardens to Lauderhill, steadily but assuredly.

Even just looking at the numbers will be enough to show us this, though.
Just take a look at this map of the two largest areas of Black dominance in South Florida:


Image Link

At the time of the 2010 Census, these were the demographics of the two areas defined above:

Greater Miami Gardens 2010

  • 515K Population
  • 381K Voting-Age Population
  • 350K Black Population
  • 250K Black Voting-Age Population
  • 67.8% Black Population Percent
  • 65.6% Black Voting-Age Population Percent

Greater Lauderhill 2010

  • 400K Population
  • 306K Voting-Age Population
  • 241K Black Population
  • 170K Black Voting-Age Population
  • 60.2% Black Population Percent
  • 55.6% Black Voting-Age Population Percent



Back then, you have a large enough Black population in the area to make a single majority-Black congressional district in Greater Miami Gardens, no strings needed
Then take a look at the numbers ten years later. Startling difference:

Greater Miami Gardens 2020

  • 544K Population
  • 423K Voting-Age Population
  • 324K Black Population
  • 247K Black Voting-Age Population
  • 59.6% Black Population Percent
  • 58.3% Black Voting-Age Population Percent

Greater Lauderhill 2020

  • 451K Population
  • 350K Voting-Age Population
  • 274K Black Population
  • 202K Black Voting-Age Population
  • 60.8% Black Population Percent
  • 57.5% Black Voting-Age Population Percent

Even though the total population in Greater Miami Gardens grew by 6%, the Black population there shrunk by 7% as its proportion shrank from 68% to under 60%.

While in Greater Lauderhill, as the area boomed, growing 13%, the Black population likewise rose by 14%, and the Black proportion grew from 60% to 61%.



Even the central cities of these two regions tell us what's going on:

Miami Gardens in 2010, a city of 107K that's 77.9% Black
Lauderhill in 2010, a city of 67K that's 77.9% Black

Exactly the same proportions in 2010, but ten years later:

In 2020, Miami Gardens was a city of 112K that's 67.0% Black (more than 10% loss)
In 2020, Lauderhill was a city of 74K that's 80.0% Black
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« Reply #260 on: December 02, 2021, 07:29:31 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2021, 07:45:14 PM by The Roc Pile »

Just seeing this now, very interesting FL-28 appears as a pure tossup. Trends with Hispanics and the GOP's continued outreach in southern M-D may slowly cause it to trend R, though I would've thought Rs would've given it a smidgen of the snowbirds on the Gulf Coast side to put it out of reach except in a D-wave.
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« Reply #261 on: December 02, 2021, 07:32:19 PM »

Just seeing this now, very interesting FL-26 is still a swing district. Trends with older whites will probably slowly but surely cause it to become more out of reach for Ds except in a wave, though I would've thought Rs would've given it a smidgen more of the snowbirds on the Gulf Coast side to shore it up.

Eh, I disagree with this unless you got a very broad definition of competitive. Most proposals got Trump 2020 winning it by 15% to 20%.

I do agree that its out of reach for Dems, especially as long as the powerful strong incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart remains.
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« Reply #262 on: December 02, 2021, 07:34:47 PM »

Just seeing this now, very interesting FL-26 is still a swing district. Trends with older whites will probably slowly but surely cause it to become more out of reach for Ds except in a wave, though I would've thought Rs would've given it a smidgen more of the snowbirds on the Gulf Coast side to shore it up.

Eh, I disagree with this unless you got a very broad definition of competitive. Most proposals got Trump 2020 winning it by 15% to 20%.

I do agree that its out of reach for Dems, especially as long as the powerful strong incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart remains.
Sorry for any confusion, I'm talking about the Keys district which Powell lost to Gimenez
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« Reply #263 on: December 02, 2021, 07:43:25 PM »

Just seeing this now, very interesting FL-26 is still a swing district. Trends with older whites will probably slowly but surely cause it to become more out of reach for Ds except in a wave, though I would've thought Rs would've given it a smidgen more of the snowbirds on the Gulf Coast side to shore it up.

Eh, I disagree with this unless you got a very broad definition of competitive. Most proposals got Trump 2020 winning it by 15% to 20%.

I do agree that its out of reach for Dems, especially as long as the powerful strong incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart remains.
Sorry for any confusion, I'm talking about the Keys district which Powell lost to Gimenez

Ah man, sorry about that, I misunderstood

As for the Keys district I'd very much agree that it's a swing district, even if Gimenez is a strong and powerful incumbent that's makes it likely to stay in the Republican column for some time to come.

However, to talk about your initial comment, I'd think that one of the most important reasons that they didn't reach into Collier is that it's very difficult to do this physically. There is only one road that runs from Miami-Dade County to Collier County directly, and its the Tamiami trail. Truth is that its either gonna be Diaz-Balart's district or the South Dade district getting a piece of Collier, this is a one or the other thing (unless they're going to make a district snake up north into Broward and I-75, which is very ugly and is sure to raise a few eyebrows).

All in all, though, it's most feasible for Diaz-Balart to reach into Collier simply because that map looks nicer, him being physically closer.
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« Reply #264 on: December 02, 2021, 09:39:47 PM »



Image Link

So, I actually took a moment to try your proposal out and see what it'd look like if Gimenez's district (FL-28 above) stretched up into Collier, and this really has multiple effects, the largest being making Gimenez's district redder as Homestead is outweighed by Collier and Hendry. FL-28 stays overwhelmingly Hispanic (63.2% population, 62.8% Voting-Age population), especially as Cubans (who make up the vast majority of Hispanics in this district, Sweetwater and Doral are in FL-27) are a relatively older group compared to other Hispanic groups.

This also has the secondary effect of shifting FL-26 bluer, though, as FL-28, as it takes territory from Diaz-Balart's district FL-27, forces FL-27 to take up more ruby red Republican municipalities, finally culminating in shifting FL-26 to be a prime competitive seat that voted Biden by 1.4%.

It also weakens the VRA district as FL-27 has to intake a few of the Black neighborhoods as well. However, the North Miami-Miami Gardens area is bleeding black residents anyway to Broward. Not much they can do there, and Blacks will still no doubt dominate the primary here, making up 39.2% of the Voting-Age population and 41.0% of the total population.

This really comes to show the type of gamble the Florida GOP is making when they attempt to take three Republican seats in Miami-Dade, and just how marginal many of these seats are. It'd take more digging into Collier in order to try to make these seats redder, and there's a limit to that, as many other political concerns remain.
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« Reply #265 on: December 03, 2021, 07:54:11 AM »



Image Link

So, I actually took a moment to try your proposal out and see what it'd look like if Gimenez's district (FL-28 above) stretched up into Collier, and this really has multiple effects, the largest being making Gimenez's district redder as Homestead is outweighed by Collier and Hendry. FL-28 stays overwhelmingly Hispanic (63.2% population, 62.8% Voting-Age population), especially as Cubans (who make up the vast majority of Hispanics in this district, Sweetwater and Doral are in FL-27) are a relatively older group compared to other Hispanic groups.

This also has the secondary effect of shifting FL-26 bluer, though, as FL-28, as it takes territory from Diaz-Balart's district FL-27, forces FL-27 to take up more ruby red Republican municipalities, finally culminating in shifting FL-26 to be a prime competitive seat that voted Biden by 1.4%.

It also weakens the VRA district as FL-27 has to intake a few of the Black neighborhoods as well. However, the North Miami-Miami Gardens area is bleeding black residents anyway to Broward. Not much they can do there, and Blacks will still no doubt dominate the primary here, making up 39.2% of the Voting-Age population and 41.0% of the total population.

This really comes to show the type of gamble the Florida GOP is making when they attempt to take three Republican seats in Miami-Dade, and just how marginal many of these seats are. It'd take more digging into Collier in order to try to make these seats redder, and there's a limit to that, as many other political concerns remain.

I agree with everything here.

The Miami Dade metro area is a unique city to gerrymander because traditionally cities are gerrymandered by attaching to red rural areas around them, but in this case geography doesn’t  really allow for that so the gerrymander is mostly contained in the metro area itself.
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« Reply #266 on: December 05, 2021, 07:27:46 AM »

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.


Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D



This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.



Opinions?

Can you shuffle 24, 26, 27, 28 to make all of them Hispanic majority, while keeping similar partisan breakdown? Or even push 24 to be roughly even? I feel 4 Hispanic plus 2 black district are probably enough for VRA.
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« Reply #267 on: December 15, 2021, 05:23:42 PM »

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.


Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D



This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.



Opinions?

Spent half a day working on your map. In the south, I was able to draw 3 R+ 11 VRA seats with 50%+ Latino, one 50%+ Latino D seats, one 50%+ Black D states. The last black D seats ends up around 47%. The map looks horrible, as I have to link minority precincts or even blocks like doing surgery. You may be able to find a cleaner way though.

I guess this would survive VRA court challenges. Five latino plus two black seats seems pretty good, so the north black opportunity seats are not needed. I am curious if this will pass the highly partisan FLSC though.
   
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« Reply #268 on: December 15, 2021, 07:10:47 PM »

Spent half a day working on your map. In the south, I was able to draw 3 R+ 11 VRA seats with 50%+ Latino, one 50%+ Latino D seats, one 50%+ Black D states. The last black D seats ends up around 47%. The map looks horrible, as I have to link minority precincts or even blocks like doing surgery. You may be able to find a cleaner way though.

I guess this would survive VRA court challenges. Five latino plus two black seats seems pretty good, so the north black opportunity seats are not needed. I am curious if this will pass the highly partisan FLSC though.   

Damn nice stuff man

You got a link? I'm interested to see whether or not you pushed the Hialeah District up North into Weston-Pembroke Pines-West Miramar.

BTW I apologize for not getting around to trying your idea out, made it halfway through then forgot about it.
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« Reply #269 on: December 16, 2021, 10:09:48 AM »

Spent half a day working on your map. In the south, I was able to draw 3 R+ 11 VRA seats with 50%+ Latino, one 50%+ Latino D seats, one 50%+ Black D states. The last black D seats ends up around 47%. The map looks horrible, as I have to link minority precincts or even blocks like doing surgery. You may be able to find a cleaner way though.

I guess this would survive VRA court challenges. Five latino plus two black seats seems pretty good, so the north black opportunity seats are not needed. I am curious if this will pass the highly partisan FLSC though.   

Damn nice stuff man

You got a link? I'm interested to see whether or not you pushed the Hialeah District up North into Weston-Pembroke Pines-West Miramar.

BTW I apologize for not getting around to trying your idea out, made it halfway through then forgot about it.
Just PMed the link, as some of the changes wasn't saved properly, leaving it half-finished.
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« Reply #270 on: December 18, 2021, 06:07:56 PM »

Honestly if the Biden DOJ wanted to sue one state, they could try suing certain Florida legislative districts. The Tampa St.Pete black seat is drawn for "racial purposes" but functions as a R gerrymander. I guess some of these ridicolous VRA seats being reversed might hurt Democrats such as reversing the Ocala Gainesville state house black seat which allows Dems to potentially win 2 state house districts from Gainesville but on the net it would benefit Democrats. Unlike the TX GOP which can just say everything is a partisan gerrymander the FL GOP has no such defense.
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« Reply #271 on: December 18, 2021, 06:22:22 PM »

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.


Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D



This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.



Opinions?


Gingles bells, Gingles bells, ho, ho, ho! In tune with the spirit of Covid and lockdowns and cabin fever run wild, Santa is a process server this year, spreading cheer to lawyers everywhere by stuffing stockings with summonses and complaints.




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« Reply #272 on: December 19, 2021, 12:13:59 AM »

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.
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S019
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« Reply #273 on: December 19, 2021, 12:21:10 AM »

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.


This would obviously never pass the fair maps law
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #274 on: December 19, 2021, 12:38:27 AM »

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.


This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

Far from clear the FLSC would care. It's 7 GOP judges, a majority of which were appointed by Scott or DeSantis. Probably they would do what DeSantis wants. The state GOP is very weak in its proposals of a status quo map.
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