2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Sol]

Fair map:

Sorry to necro, but could you add a link or an image with the counties and cities? It's pretty hard to judge maps without having local government boundaries.

[SevenEleven]

Fair map:

Sorry to necro, but could you add a link or an image with the counties and cities? It's pretty hard to judge maps without having local government boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/68a20577-e5be-4a2c-bef8-c95617ac7194

[Stuart98]

Fair map


President 2016


Senate 2018


Splits 15R 14D in both elections, with the 25th being Clinton/Scott and 3rd being Trump/Nelson. Curiously, the 15th is a Trump/Scott/Gillum district, so it actually split 15D 14R in the 2018 Gubernatorial election.

[BudgieForce]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

8-21 with maybe a 22nd seat in the cards if it doesn't hurt any other.
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Sorry to necro the thread.

Would Republicans really risk a legally dubious map when they could just draw two safe Republican seats and be done?

I know that the state supreme court is a majority conservative now and there's a good chance they approve the map but why even risk it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

8-21 with maybe a 22nd seat in the cards if it doesn't hurt any other.
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Sorry to necro the thread.

Would Republicans really risk a legally dubious map when they could just draw two safe Republican seats and be done?

I know that state supreme court is a majority conservative now and there's a good chance they approve the map but why even risk it?

No necro-related apology needed, this is the established thread anyway.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair Florida map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/572ada0d-d373-462a-99f5-275fff14b580

FL-01: Trump+37, R+21
FL-02: Trump+11, R+6
FL-03: Trump+29, R+15
FL-04: Trump+0, R+2
FL-05: Trump+15, R+7
FL-06: Trump+33, R+18
FL-07: Trump+26, R+12
FL-08: Trump+16, R+7
FL-09: Clinton+5, EVEN
FL-10: Clinton+23, D+9
FL-11: Clinton+25, D+11
FL-12: Trump+19, R+8
FL-13: Trump+18, R+9
FL-14: Trump+3, R+3
FL-15: Clinton+17, D+7
FL-16: Clinton+3, D+2
FL-17: Trump+12, R+6
FL-18: Trump+15, R+8
FL-19: Trump+2, R+1
FL-20: Clinton+51, D+25 (41% black, 37% white, 18% hispanic by CVAP)
FL-21: Clinton+22, D+10
FL-22: Clinton+13, D+4
FL-23: Clinton+17, D+11 (44% Hispanic, 36% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-24: Clinton+62, D+31 (49% black, 29% hispanic, 20% white by CVAP)
FL-25: Clinton+5, R+2 (90% Hispanic by CVAP)
FL-26: Clinton+24, D+9 (55% Hispanic, 28% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-27: Clinton+30, D+11 (64% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% black by CVAP)
FL-28: Trump+27, R+14
FL-29: Trump+20, R+11

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a fair Florida map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/572ada0d-d373-462a-99f5-275fff14b580

FL-01: Trump+37, R+21
FL-02: Trump+11, R+6
FL-03: Trump+29, R+15
FL-04: Trump+0, R+2
FL-05: Trump+15, R+7
FL-06: Trump+33, R+18
FL-07: Trump+26, R+12
FL-08: Trump+16, R+7
FL-09: Clinton+5, EVEN
FL-10: Clinton+23, D+9
FL-11: Clinton+25, D+11
FL-12: Trump+19, R+8
FL-13: Trump+18, R+9
FL-14: Trump+3, R+3
FL-15: Clinton+17, D+7
FL-16: Clinton+3, D+2
FL-17: Trump+12, R+6
FL-18: Trump+15, R+8
FL-19: Trump+2, R+1
FL-20: Clinton+51, D+25 (41% black, 37% white, 18% hispanic by CVAP)
FL-21: Clinton+22, D+10
FL-22: Clinton+13, D+4
FL-23: Clinton+17, D+11 (44% Hispanic, 36% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-24: Clinton+62, D+31 (49% black, 29% hispanic, 20% white by CVAP)
FL-25: Clinton+5, R+2 (90% Hispanic by CVAP)
FL-26: Clinton+24, D+9 (55% Hispanic, 28% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-27: Clinton+30, D+11 (64% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% black by CVAP)
FL-28: Trump+27, R+14
FL-29: Trump+20, R+11

The median seat is R+3. Not bad for a fair map.

[beesley]

My attempt at a fair Florida map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/572ada0d-d373-462a-99f5-275fff14b580

FL-01: Trump+37, R+21
FL-02: Trump+11, R+6
FL-03: Trump+29, R+15
FL-04: Trump+0, R+2
FL-05: Trump+15, R+7
FL-06: Trump+33, R+18
FL-07: Trump+26, R+12
FL-08: Trump+16, R+7
FL-09: Clinton+5, EVEN
FL-10: Clinton+23, D+9
FL-11: Clinton+25, D+11
FL-12: Trump+19, R+8
FL-13: Trump+18, R+9
FL-14: Trump+3, R+3
FL-15: Clinton+17, D+7
FL-16: Clinton+3, D+2
FL-17: Trump+12, R+6
FL-18: Trump+15, R+8
FL-19: Trump+2, R+1
FL-20: Clinton+51, D+25 (41% black, 37% white, 18% hispanic by CVAP)
FL-21: Clinton+22, D+10
FL-22: Clinton+13, D+4
FL-23: Clinton+17, D+11 (44% Hispanic, 36% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-24: Clinton+62, D+31 (49% black, 29% hispanic, 20% white by CVAP)
FL-25: Clinton+5, R+2 (90% Hispanic by CVAP)
FL-26: Clinton+24, D+9 (55% Hispanic, 28% white, 14% black by CVAP)
FL-27: Clinton+30, D+11 (64% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% black by CVAP)
FL-28: Trump+27, R+14
FL-29: Trump+20, R+11

To me a fair map isn't just about partisan balance. There are a lot of missed opportunities to draw maj-min districts, and I think there are ways of drawing the safer districts which are better for COIs. That being said, in regards to partisan balance it is good, and a majority minority seat in the north wouldn't affect it too much.

[Sol]

You can easily draw 4 majority Latino districts in South Florida, fyi.

[Former President tack50]

You can easily draw 4 majority Latino districts in South Florida, fyi.

To me a fair map isn't just about partisan balance. There are a lot of missed opportunities to draw maj-min districts, and I think there are ways of drawing the safer districts which are better for COIs. That being said, in regards to partisan balance it is good, and a majority minority seat in the north wouldn't affect it too much.

I am open to hearing arguments for better COIs on my map (which is 100% improvable and far from perfect) but to be honest when dealing with VRA districts my modus operandi is to just draw however many districts there are now and leave it at that (I was actually very suspicious of the 90% Hispanic district but since it ends up as a swing district I guessed it was fine). I tend to find the process of drawing VRA districts annoying to be honest.

Actually despite Tim's observation I didn't look at partisan data at all for this map.

[lfromnj]

Also if announcing partisan data just for the knowledge, please use 2018 governor for Florida.

[beesley]

I am open to hearing arguments for better COIs on my map (which is 100% improvable and far from perfect) but to be honest when dealing with VRA districts my modus operandi is to just draw however many districts there are now and leave it at that (I was actually very suspicious of the 90% Hispanic district but since it ends up as a swing district I guessed it was fine). I tend to find the process of drawing VRA districts annoying to be honest.

My issue with that is the black voters in Jacksonville/North Florida are a completely different COI to those in South Florida. A better example would be in Georgia - my view is that it wouldn't be fair to have another majority black district in Atlanta to compensate for the lack of a rural majority minority district. This is especially important because there are now only 2 plurality black districts, a reduction when the map has increased in seats. There's also room for one or two maj-min districts in Orlando and another in Tampa.

Don't worry, I'll put my money where my mouth is and make another of my 'my definition of fair' maps this week, and then you can happily criticise me all you like.

[Sol]

Also if announcing partisan data just for the knowledge, please use 2018 governor for Florida.

Though 2016 Senate is probably the closest to 2020 for Miami-Dade.

[Former President tack50]

I am open to hearing arguments for better COIs on my map (which is 100% improvable and far from perfect) but to be honest when dealing with VRA districts my modus operandi is to just draw however many districts there are now and leave it at that (I was actually very suspicious of the 90% Hispanic district but since it ends up as a swing district I guessed it was fine). I tend to find the process of drawing VRA districts annoying to be honest.

My issue with that is the black voters in Jacksonville/North Florida are a completely different COI to those in South Florida. A better example would be in Georgia - my view is that it wouldn't be fair to have another majority black district in Atlanta to compensate for the lack of a rural majority minority district. This is especially important because there are now only 2 plurality black districts, a reduction when the map has increased in seats. There's also room for one or two maj-min districts in Orlando and another in Tampa.

Don't worry, I'll put my money where my mouth is and make another of my 'my definition of fair' maps this week, and then you can happily criticise me all you like.

Yeah, I did cut the black north FL district but that is cause I didn't consider "Blacks in Tallahassee+Blacks in Jacksonville" to really be a COI worth mantaining

It is an ugly, unnecessary district imo (albeit one that benefits Dems so not complaining too much)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A fair Florida map. I did focus a bit on reducing county splits and improving compactness, per usual, but I also maintained long-standing minority seats, including the Alcee Hastings district and the northern Miami-Dade black district. One major change was the creation of a dedicated north-central inland FL seat. There are 15 Republican-leaning seats and 14 Democratic-leaning ones, on 2018 gubernatorial numbers.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e6d2d5f4-26a6-40db-9028-0e8001f40966

[Sol]

A fair Florida map. I did focus a bit on reducing county splits and improving compactness, per usual, but I also maintained long-standing minority seats, including the Alcee Hastings district and the northern Miami-Dade black district. One major change was the creation of a dedicated north-central inland FL seat. There are 15 Republican-leaning seats and 14 Democratic-leaning ones, on 2018 gubernatorial numbers.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e6d2d5f4-26a6-40db-9028-0e8001f40966

That's a clever way to handle Miami-Dade--I like that approach of sending the Black district deeper into Broward instead of the 4th Latino district.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair map of Florida.

I don't care about incumbents.



The partisan colors on the map above refer to 2018 Gubernatorial Election Data, and the map was made with 2018 U.S. Census Data. The population deviation is 0.71%.

There are numerous county splits because I care deeply about population deviation and compactness.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.

Partisan Breakdown by Election

2008 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15D to 14R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 18R to 11D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 15R to 14D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 15R to 14D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 15R to 14D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 18R to 11D


2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida (rough estimate): 17R to 12D

• FL-26, the Hialeah and Northwest Miami-Dade District flips to Trump 2020 (Clinton won there by 24.8% and Gillum won by 10.8%)
• FL-21, which includes North Palm Beach County, Martin County, and parts of Port St. Lucie flips to Trump 2020 (Trump 2016 won by 2.6% and Gillum won by 0.1%)
• I don't think FL-29 would flip (it includes Homestead, Key West, and covers the bottom part of Florida in general), but it could get a lot closer.

I'd like to think I made it very proportional.


Opinions? (please give some, I'd love ideas on how to improve the Orlando area) This will be my first map, I'll try out a few other combinations.

This map was made with a South-to-Panhandle approach (I started coloring it in from the bottom and worked by way up) and with as little Partisan Bias as possible. I reserved three Democratic Seats in the Orlando Area, two in the Tampa Bay Area, one in the Jacksonville Area, and eight in the Miami Area to get to 14 Democratic Districts.

My next map will be a Panhandle-to-South (so much for that lol) approach. It may look similar to this one but I'd like to try something new in the Miami area, maybe getting two different DeSantis Districts in the Miami Area.

[Sol]

I have a few of nitpicks, because I'm a jerk:

-IMO Jacksonville is one of those occasions were a donut district is a decent choice. If you don't agree though, I'd suggest avoiding crossing the St. Johns River more than one in Duval County since that's a pretty major divide.

-South Florida IMO is a little questionable--you can easily draw 4 Latino districts (majority CVAP) and 1 Black (majority CVAP) district there, but you only have 3 Latino district--don't think that passes muster.

-The 20th district is a little questionable for going between major pop. centers on both coasts.

-The deviation is a little high

I quite like your central florida though!

[Sol]

snip

That's a clever way to handle Miami-Dade--I like that approach of sending the Black district deeper into Broward instead of the 4th Latino district.

So this ended up not really working when I played it out in my map drawing (the Black VRA district isn't Black enough), but it got me thinking about other ways to configure South Florida. Going over to Collier is kind of awkward, so what about sending the excess population into Broward instead of going over the Everglades?


link

All four Miami-Dade districts are majority Latino by CVAP.

The lines certainly aren't fixed--I need to do some reshuffling I think, and in the link the lines outside of Miami aren't certain at all--but the basic concept is interesting and probably better CoI than going all of the way to Naples.

The one issue I could imagine is potentially VRA-wise, so I tried to push more Democratic Latino areas into Broward so those votes weren't getting diluted. Still, I could imagine Democrats winning my 25th in 2020 but losing the Latino vote.

[Sol]

Made a full map. A bit dissatisfied with it, but pleased that I managed to avoid a nasty district crossing from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic. Figured it was better to share this and get feedback rather than continuing on it forever.







link

4 majority Latino districts by CVAP, one plurality (FL-25, FL-27, FL-28, FL-29, and FL-09 respectively). FL-24 is plurality Black and FL-26 is majority Black.

I might work on a version with a Tallahassee-Jacksonville district in case that would be found to be required.

[Sol]

Also--I accidentally edited over my original version with the Tallahassee-Jacksonville district--will fix later. Nothing is different except districts 2-5.

[Biden his time]

I have a few of nitpicks, because I'm a jerk:

No, I'd much rather hear feedback than nothing at all. Thank you for taking the time to look at the map!

-IMO Jacksonville is one of those occasions were a donut district is a decent choice. If you don't agree though, I'd suggest avoiding crossing the St. Johns River more than one in Duval County since that's a pretty major divide.

I'll try the donut district next time. I don't want to divide it by the St. Johns River though exactly because that's a light Republican gerrymander and removed any trace of the Majority Black District. I think Jacksonville deserves a district dominated by itself and generally shouldn't be separated.

-South Florida IMO is a little questionable--you can easily draw 4 Latino districts (majority CVAP) and 1 Black (majority CVAP) district there, but you only have 3 Latino district--don't think that passes muster.

👍 Understood, thank you.

-The 20th district is a little questionable for going between major pop. centers on both coasts.

I'm not sure what you mean by questionable. I quite like it that the rural areas of inland Southern Florida have their own district, and it was one of my main goals when creating the map. I've always thought they're quite culturally and economically distinct from the surrounding coastal urban areas in the Miami Metro and SW Florida and that they do deserve their own unified voice (rather than being split up and drowned out by the surrounding urban areas). I did need to add some of the suburbs in Lee County to make the population of the District viable, but as the population inland expands, eventually there'll be no need for that.

-The deviation is a little high

👍 Understood, thank you. I'll work on that next time by using the new block tools.

What is your preferred deviation, though?

I quite like your central florida though!

Is there a specific part you liked about it? I'd like to be able to take the good parts from this map and preserve them as I make newer maps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else find the precincts in Tampa really annoying to work with?

[Biden his time]

Anyone else find the precincts in Tampa really annoying to work with?

Yes, definitely. Every other precinct you color activates some more blocks on the opposite side of the county, and ironing out the exclaves takes ages when done by hand. Lee County has a similar problem in Ft. Myers and the surrounding areas.

It'll probably be fixed as Dave puts in the 2020 Election Data (which he is currently uploading for different states).


I created a map for Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe Counties that has 4 Majority-Latino and 1 Majority-Black Congressional Districts under CVAP (Link on Dave's Redistricting App):



All figures are from 2017 (or the 2019 5-Year ACS, which most accurately reflects 2017 figures)

Opinions on the map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else find the precincts in Tampa really annoying to work with?

Yes, definitely. Every other precinct you color activates some more blocks on the opposite side of the county, and ironing out the exclaves takes ages when done by hand. Lee County has a similar problem in Ft. Myers and the surrounding areas.

It'll probably be fixed as he puts in the 2020 Election Data (which he is currently uploading for different states).

Interesting. Thanks for the heads-up. I did not know Lee County had similar problems, as I simply tend to draw a single CD taking in all by 7k or so people there, wholely within the county.