2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

Ron DeSantis' Press Secretary has made the following statement re: FL-05

“The northern Florida district is an unconstitutional gerrymander that unnaturally connects communities in Jacksonville with communities hours away in Tallahassee and Gadsden counties,” Pushaw wrote. “We eliminated this flagrant gerrymander. We believe our map is within constitutional requirements and performs better than the other maps on Tier 2 constitutional requirements, including compactness and preservation of boundaries, all while increasing the number of minority districts.”

The FDA literally states that the maps must produce districts that racial minorities can elect candidates of their choice.   Blacks in the Panhandle deserve a candidate of their choice, it's an obvious COI.   Florida has had a black opportunity district in the northern part of the state for decades, well before the FDA.  Are they seriously going to make the argument that blacks in northern/Central Florida get NO seats?  That's absurd.

FDA language-

Districts shall not be drawn to deny racial or language minorities the equal
opportunity to participate in the polit ical process and elect representatives of their choice.

Who would've thought a constitutional amendment that literally writes out protection for racial minorities' representation would be used to potentially remove their representation!

Please explain to me the difference between NC12 and FL05.
Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

[lfromnj]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

according to the interpretation in Shaw v. Reno (1993). The court noted that in some instances, "a reapportionment plan may be so highly irregular and bizarre in shape that it rationally cannot be understood as anything other than an effort to segregate voters based on race."

[Oryxslayer]

To just end this false equivalency: NC-12 pre-2016 was unnecessary because a compact performing minority seat could be drawn inside Charlotte but instead sprawled. No similarly true-compact option exists in Duval, and a linkage is the only way the seat can perform.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

[lfromnj]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

[Nyvin]

Ron DeSantis' Press Secretary has made the following statement re: FL-05

“The northern Florida district is an unconstitutional gerrymander that unnaturally connects communities in Jacksonville with communities hours away in Tallahassee and Gadsden counties,” Pushaw wrote. “We eliminated this flagrant gerrymander. We believe our map is within constitutional requirements and performs better than the other maps on Tier 2 constitutional requirements, including compactness and preservation of boundaries, all while increasing the number of minority districts.”

The FDA literally states that the maps must produce districts that racial minorities can elect candidates of their choice.   Blacks in the Panhandle deserve a candidate of their choice, it's an obvious COI.   Florida has had a black opportunity district in the northern part of the state for decades, well before the FDA.  Are they seriously going to make the argument that blacks in northern/Central Florida get NO seats?  That's absurd.

FDA language-

Districts shall not be drawn to deny racial or language minorities the equal
opportunity to participate in the polit ical process and elect representatives of their choice.

Who would've thought a constitutional amendment that literally writes out protection for racial minorities' representation would be used to potentially remove their representation!

Please explain to me the difference between NC12 and FL05.
Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

Ummm....yes.  Blacks can elect the candidate of their choice from a district entirely within Mecklenburg county (hence Alma Adams).   They cannot do so (at least not ensured to do so) in a district in Duval County or out of Leon and surrounding counties.   I don't know how that isn't obvious but okay.

[Nyvin]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

There is no federal mandate about compactness for congressional districts.   Certainly no mandate about not linking geographically separated minority populations.

[politicallefty]

Yeah, I read that as though DeSantis is arguing that the current FL-05 is unconstitutional under the Florida Constitution. Read the press release in context.

[Oryxslayer]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

There is no federal mandate about compactness for congressional districts.   Certainly no mandate about not linking geographically separated minority populations.

I have to disagree with this one here - Gingle's says minority district's cannot be unnecessarily uncompact. Essentially, don't draw districts across the length of the state so as to create minority seats if that is the only option. Or be unnecessarily uncompact to pack in as many PoC as possible when a compact performing alternative exists - the NC 2016 situation.

But of course by Florida redistricting law FL-05 isn't uncompact - especially when we remember that the old FL-05 was more uncompact and signed into law in 2010. This version actually stays in north Florida whereas the previous version went into the I4 and two cities in between.

[Nyvin]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

There is no federal mandate about compactness for congressional districts.   Certainly no mandate about not linking geographically separated minority populations.

I have to disagree with this one here - Gingle's says minority district's cannot be unnecessarily uncompact. Essentially, don't draw districts across the length of the state so as to create minority seats if that is the only option. Or be unnecessarily uncompact to pack in as many PoC as possible when a compact performing alternative exists - the NC 2016 situation.

But of course by Florida redistricting law FL-05 isn't uncompact - especially when we remember that the old FL-05 was more uncompact and signed into law in 2010. This version actually stays in north Florida whereas the previous version went into the I4 and two cities in between.

Any argument about FL-5 not being allowed under the VRA is moot because the district as drawn in the 2000's and 2010 (pre-2016) were much more stretched out and dispersed than it is now and the courts never struck it down then.

[GALeftist]

This is a waste of time. No one in the legislature has touched FL-05, there's no appetite to axe it. Why is DeSantis making such a big deal over this rather than actual achievable goals like Orlando or Tampa seats?

[lfromnj]

This is a waste of time. No one in the legislature has touched FL-05, there's no appetite to axe it. Why is DeSantis making such a big deal over this rather than actual achievable goals like Orlando or Tampa seats?

If he's not just trolling for ET votes and actually wants an aggressive map, he's telling the senate leadership that they will be facing lawsuits either way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

Then why wasn't it ruled illegal decades ago?

[lfromnj]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

Then why wasn't it ruled illegal decades ago?

No one has bothered suing. The FL GOP legislatively certainly wouldn't benefit as they get a lot of gerrymander benefits from these maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

Then why wasn't it ruled illegal decades ago?

No one has bothered suing. The FL GOP legislatively certainly wouldn't benefit as they get a lot of gerrymander benefits from these maps.

lol ok

You've been going on with bizarre galaxy-brained takes on redistricting for a while but this one takes the cake.

[Nyvin]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

Then why wasn't it ruled illegal decades ago?

No one has bothered suing. The FL GOP legislatively certainly wouldn't benefit as they get a lot of gerrymander benefits from these maps.

Martinez v. Bush - 2002

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's a statement from the GOP senate today, when questioned on the DeSantis maps.

[BoiseBoy]

Anyway, here's a statement from the GOP senate today, when questioned on the DeSantis maps.

God bless the Florida Senate.

[Sol]

To be honest I do think that FL-05 would likely get struck down in federal court today--conservatives in the 11th circuit and on SCOTUS would probably have a field day with it. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Torie]

To be honest I do think that FL-05 would likely get struck down in federal court today--conservatives in the 11th circuit and on SCOTUS would probably have a field day with it. Hope I'm wrong though.

What do you think is the VRA case against FL-05 past or present or as drawn by the legislative map drafts? I don't discern a case that has much merit myself. There certainly is nothing requiring that a performing black CD be drawn, either in its current form, or as a Duval centric CD.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yo voy a votar

Por fair maps?

[GALeftist]

Would it not be a bit of an own goal for DeSantis to veto the maps? Best case scenario for the GOP in that case is probably that the veto gets overridden, DeSantis sues that the FL-05 is a racial gerrymander, wins, and gets a redder but still pretty blue seat within Duval. I doubt the courts would be hackish enough to draw a partisan gerrymander in Jacksonville themselves, even if they'd let one stand if it came from the legislature. Similarly the legislature's map probably protects South Florida incumbents more than a court drawn map would, which is presumably what would happen if DeSantis vetoes and the legislature can't override.

Bottom line, this seems like a poorly thought out strategy from DeSantis, I have no idea why he's focusing so heavily on FL-05. He should just be asking the legislature for Orlando and Tampa reconfigurations, but he's basically ignored those thus far.

[lfromnj]

Would it not be a bit of an own goal for DeSantis to veto the maps? Best case scenario for the GOP in that case is probably that the veto gets overridden, DeSantis sues that the 5th district is a racial gerrymander, wins, and gets a redder but still pretty blue seat within Duval. I doubt the courts would be hackish enough to draw a partisan gerrymander in Jacksonville themselves, even if they'd let one stand if it came from the legislature. Similarly the legislature's map probably protects South Florida incumbents more than a court drawn map would.

Well at the very least he could stop the dumb NH 2010 tier move in Tampa which doesn't make much sense.

[GALeftist]

Would it not be a bit of an own goal for DeSantis to veto the maps? Best case scenario for the GOP in that case is probably that the veto gets overridden, DeSantis sues that the 5th district is a racial gerrymander, wins, and gets a redder but still pretty blue seat within Duval. I doubt the courts would be hackish enough to draw a partisan gerrymander in Jacksonville themselves, even if they'd let one stand if it came from the legislature. Similarly the legislature's map probably protects South Florida incumbents more than a court drawn map would.

Well at the very least he could stop the dumb NH 2010 tier move in Tampa which doesn't make much sense.

That's true, a court drawn Tampa would probably be better for the GOP than the Senate map, lol. Still, though, the Senate's Tampa configuration definitely isn't illegal and is far enough away from FL-05 that a racial gerrymandering lawsuit wouldn't have to touch it, so as I see it the possibilities are:

1. Racial gerrymandering lawsuit, FL-05 moves from Safe D to Lean D
2. Court drawn map: FL-05 moves from Safe D to Lean D, FL-14 moves from tossup to Lean D, FL-15 moves from tossup to Lean R, Orlando is basically unchanged, FL-26 and FL-27 probably move from Lean R to tossup

Neither is an especially good bargain for the GOP