2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Idaho Conservative, I’m curious if your map cracks The Villages or keeps it in one district.

from the looks of it, The Villages is whole in the green district with all of Sumter County in it. You can even see the boundary of Sumter County on its borders with both the Pasco CD and the northern Seminole CD.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Would splitting the Florida Keys from the Everglades part of Monroe County be legal?

[Sol]

Would splitting the Florida Keys from the Everglades part of Monroe County be legal?

Is there much of a point to doing that? The Keys have to go into mainland Miami-Dade, so it doesn't look particularly bad, and nobody but crocodiles lives in mainland Monroe.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Would splitting the Florida Keys from the Everglades part of Monroe County be legal?

Is there much of a point to doing that? The Keys have to go into mainland Miami-Dade, so it doesn't look particularly bad, and nobody but crocodiles lives in mainland Monroe.

I don't know, I was just wondering. I understand that there is not much point in doing it unless for making better looking districts in some cases or if you want to split Homestead in a very weird way.

(Well to be fair mainland Monroe is also full of vultures and crows and what not, but yes, no humans. I was there on holiday five months ago.)

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

[Idaho Conservative]

Idaho Conservative, I’m curious if your map cracks The Villages or keeps it in one district.

I kept Sumpter County whole.  But it appears the Villages crosses county lines, generally, I prioritize keeping counties whole over cities.  To be fair I did a lot of splits in Orlando to keep dems to 2 seats in the area while making reasonably clean districts.  I prioritized aesthetics on the map, they are important because weird shapes convince the public of gerrymandering, clean, compact packs are more accepted.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

minority districts aren't part of a fair map?

[lfromnj]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling

The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

minority districts aren't part of a fair map?

Not uncompact/breaking multiple COI's, Im against Fajitas and FL 5th and CA 21, I apply my principles equally when I draw an actually fair map.  So yes districts like MS-2nd should exist but not all.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.vox.com/2015/12/5/9851152/florida-gerrymandering-ruling
I agree with your take mostly, but that's not the law.  Probably best to draw the most fair legal map.
The 2016 case was 5-2 although 3 of the 5 are now replaced by Desantis conservatives, I think FL 5th can be cut out(A fair map replaces it with a likely R based in Tallahassee and a tossup or Lean D in Jacksonville although the GOP can make the Jacksonville seat safe or connect it to Orlando.)


This is what I would draw in North FL(purple isn't finished) The Yellow seat is Clinton +3, another option is to keep the district purely in Duval and just take the coastal region and make that a suburban district.

This is the other district I might draw and it ends up effectively as a light D gerrymander, more COI oriented but a bit less compact


The district is 37.5% black FWIW and +9 Clinton so Likely/Safe D.

Why not do Tallahassee to Jacksonville?  Shores up neighboring seats and helps avoid VRA  Litigation.

Because im drawing what I believe is a fair map?. I mean its not going to happen was just doing what I believe is a fair map.

minority districts aren't part of a fair map?

Not uncompact/breaking multiple COI's, Im against Fajitas and FL 5th and CA 21, I apply my principles equally when I draw an actually fair map.  So yes districts like MS-2nd should exist but not all.

[Sol]

Playing around with a fair map of Florida. Not happy with the Orlando area but whatevs. Here's the link







Has 5 Latino majority districts (FL-10, FL-25, FL-27, FL-28, FL-29) and 2 Black influence districts (FL-03 and FL-26). FL-24 is a coalition district which is extremely diverse but plurality Black, so would probably elect Hastings or his successor.

I'm a bit concerned that FL-25 is in violation of the VRA; it's majority Latino by a fair amount but Latinos are quite politically divided with Republicans in Hialeah and more liberal Latinos in Broward. Non-Latinos are pretty vociferously D, so I'm concerned that this district may be suppressing a majority Republican Latino electorate. Not sure how to fix this, recommendations welcome.

[S019]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

[Nyvin]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

I honestly don't know, it's not like anyone can really predict how the south Florida hispanic vote is going to go over the next decade.

[lfromnj]

Well they have to now? Throwing away incumbents while gaining seats?

They can shore up using Western Florida too.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

It's probably possible but they have to get Miami Beach out of the Salazar district and hop over to Naples. Even then, all three probably aren't Safe R. To give you an idea of what they're working with, this area is 3 districts of population and was DeSantis+7. Probably Trump+14 or so.

[lfromnj]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

It's probably possible but they have to get Miami Beach out of the Salazar district and hop over to Naples. Even then, all three probably aren't Safe R. To give you an idea of what they're working with, this area is 3 districts of population and was DeSantis+7. Probably Trump+14 or so.

Btw there is also Rubio 2016 numbers for South Florida.  Rest of Florida for Trump seems like Desantis/Scott numbers. Although snapbacks can happen.

Still its crazy how Trump did better than Marco Rubio in Miami Dade.

[lfromnj]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

8-21 with maybe a 22nd seat in the cards if it doesn't hurt any other.
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

my bad did the math wrong in SE FL. Indian river to Collier is exactly 10 districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

my bad did the math wrong in SE FL. Indian river to Collier is exactly 10 districts.

Yep. And you can only go so far into Collier because the incumbent rep is in Naples. The map is going to look something like this:

[Sol]

I did two Republican gerrymanders of Florida a while back, using 2016 Senate Results (in Miami-Dade) and 2018 Gov. results (outside of South Florida) to simulate something close to 2020. It's obviously rather extreme, so I'm planning on drawing a "lite" version at some point.

Extreme Gerrymander

Moderate Gerrymander (except in South Florida)

I figured gaining an extra Latino seat in Miami-Dade meant that drawing an extra vote sink would be a good deal for the GOP--thus FL-28, which is safe D. The other Miami-Dade seats probably all voted Trump; FL-28 and FL-25 are Clinton-Trump seats which would be swingy, while Curbelo's seat is safe.

Did you know you can draw a another Republican seat in Broward/Palm Beach?

Ugh this sucks I need to absolve my sins

[lfromnj]

I did two Republican gerrymanders of Florida a while back, using 2016 Senate Results (in Miami-Dade) and 2018 Gov. results (outside of South Florida) to simulate something close to 2020. It's obviously rather extreme, so I'm planning on drawing a "lite" version at some point.

Extreme Gerrymander

Moderate Gerrymander (except in South Florida)

I figured gaining an extra Latino seat in Miami-Dade meant that drawing an extra vote sink would be a good deal for the GOP--thus FL-28, which is safe D. The other Miami-Dade seats probably all voted Trump; FL-28 and FL-25 are Clinton-Trump seats which would be swingy, while Curbelo's seat is safe.

Did you know you can draw a another Republican seat in Broward/Palm Beach?

Ugh this sucks I need to absolve my sins

For the Jacksonville gerrymander its fairly obvious what to do if you want a clean one.
Just split it at the St.Johns river.

Your map is probably far too ugly for either one and would certainly result in a new redistricting amendment



For example this split is pretty reasonable and easily defendable and gives much better partisan numbers.

[SevenEleven]

Fair map:

[Frodo]

is FL gaining 2 new seats a certainty?

Looks like it, though until the Census Bureau finalizes its official numbers for states to use for redistricting purposes, we won't ever really know for sure: