Rate Arizona (Spring 2020 installment)

[538Electoral]

Lean R

[AGA]

Tilt D. Biden is leading in the polls and will be helped by Mark Kelly. The state has trended D since 2016, and I am expecting Biden to win the PV by four points.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean Biden, Biden +3. Biden wins it even if he loses the election.

And indeed:

I think this board is in for a surprise with this state.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Toss-Up, very slight advantage to Trump, since I think a lot will change between now and November. Could go either way, though.

[Orser67]

Recognizing that Breaking Bad is set in a neighboring state, things are "breaking bad" for the President.

...That was painful

Painfully awesome

[Red Willow]

People underestimate how many of the white college educated suburbanites in AZ are former CA conservatives, and how anti-immigrant they are compared to their counterparts in most other states.

[MARGINS6729]

To be honest, I was skeptical because GOP turnout was low in 2016 and Sinema is such a moderate senator that some Democrats there tried to censure her(don't remember  exactly who right now). It also has some decently populated solid Republican counties in western Arizona that will be harder to compete in on the presidential level than in a midterm race not to mention that Republicans can very well win Maricopa County. But then I saw the latest voter registration numbers. Arizona Democrats have not only continued to out register Republicans but have now  surpassed independents in voter registration in the state while the amount of registered Republicans in the state has now actually gone down. Sure voter registration does not predict elections but this is a huge deal when you think about how the state is trending. I'm almost tempted to say it leans D but it probably is still a tossup.