WI-Marquette: Biden +3%

[DrScholl]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

[Hammy]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

If the number of undecideds is greater than the Dem margin then I don't see how that's very weird logic. We saw this all throughout 2016 (and several in 2018) where Dems were sure they would win because they led, and then we saw how undecideds broke in the end.

[DrScholl]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

If the number of undecideds is greater than the Dem margin then I don't see how that's very weird logic. We saw this all throughout 2016 (and several in 2018) where Dems were sure they would win because they led, and then we saw how undecideds broke in the end.

There is also conventional logic that says that undecideds break for the challenger. With that said, Trump's path to victory is through a plurality of the vote like it was last time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

If the number of undecideds is greater than the Dem margin then I don't see how that's very weird logic. We saw this all throughout 2016 (and several in 2018) where Dems were sure they would win because they led, and then we saw how undecideds broke in the end.

You're making an assumption that because undecideds broke for Trump last time, they will do so again.  This may or may not happen, but it certainly can't be automatically assumed.  As others have said, undecideds have historically broken for the out party, especially when things aren't going well in the country (and it's highly likely that they won't be going all that well by November).

[jamestroll]

Not everything will be like 2016 polling forever.

Wisconsin will probably vote for Biden but only because Biden is leading by a large national margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not everything will be like 2016 polling forever.

Wisconsin will probably vote for Biden but only because Biden is leading by a large national margin.

The large natl margin is a trojan horse Dems have 256 and Rs have 200, VA puts Dems over the top and that's all that matters

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Michigan President by Marquette Law School on 2020-03-29

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details