WI-Marquette: Biden +3% (user search)

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

That's just not what we've been seeing in the Dem debates though. Biden's last 3-4 debates have been his best of the entire primary, and his last two have been his sharpest. He's getting better at debates, not worse.

Going up against Bernie is not Trump. Bernie is really not that good of a debater. He's not awful but he isn't good at putting his opponent on the spot and challenging them. He kind of backs down too easily. Trump won't. Hillary low key kicked Bernie's butt in the debates and Trump resoundingly beat Hillary in the 2nd debate. It wasn't even close. Trump is no Reagan in debates or anything but he's a showman and he's good at getting under his opponents skin: Jeb, Marco and Hillary to some degree.

As I stated over and over again, Bush W signed no child left behind, he built the wall, he signed Minimum wage reform, all McCain ideas that's why Bush W got reelected. Bush W also signed campaign finance reform after Enron. Bill Clinton signed welfare reform that's why they got reelected. Trump have Bill's on Leader McConnells desk minimum wage reform and campaign finance reform that he wont sign and Biden said he would in his first 100 days

That's why Biden is leading 50/41

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