WI-Marquette: Biden +3%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, if Trump is so great he would be leading by 6-10 pts

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It's incredible how not useful GE polls are this far out. Sanders was ahead and Biden tied last time because Bernie was looking more likely to be the nominee, it seems GE strength pre convention is almost entirely determined by how strong someone is doing in the primary, why bother then?

[Catalyst138]

We really dodged a bullet not nominating Sanders. Thank god.

Sanders’ failure in the primaries also made him decline in head to head polls. When he was the front runner he beat Trump by more than Biden did in polls, but now that Biden is the presumptive nominee Biden is getting all of the support.

IMO both of them were decent candidates in the general.

[indietraveler]

I hope some of the die hards continue to underestimate Biden.

Lack of enthusiasm doesn't mean you aren't going to vote.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable.

Your arrogance is astounding.  

"Indisputable"?  This simply isn't true; Biden stirs up nowhere near the visceral dislike that Hillary did among some voters.  If you don't see this, you're being willfully blind.  (And yes, I personally know some union WWC voters in Wisconsin who are examples of this; they voted for Johnson in 2016 because they couldn't stomach Hillary, but will happily vote for Biden).

You claim that every poll that goes against your intuition is wrong.  You pronounce with certainty that Trump will definitely win the election overall,  Michigan (despite consistently strong polling for Biden), Wisconsin, and who knows what else.  Why should we trust your clearly biased "inutition" over gold-standard pollsters like Marquette?

You should try a little humility instead of certainty, and maybe people would take you more seriously and pleasantly instead of dismissing you as an obnoxious jerk.  

SN is projecting about his God Orange Candidate.
He goes on talking about Biden being a "flawed candidate" and "toxic," but fails to open his ears/eyes to the fact that the Narcissistic ManChild is the one of the most (if not thee most) "toxic" presidents we have ever had.
Most independents see this, and surprisingly, even a small amount of registered Republicans do (just look at the small group of blue avatars here in Atlas, that "are done" with trump).

[SN2903]

We really dodged a bullet not nominating Sanders. Thank god.

Sanders’ failure in the primaries also made him decline in head to head polls. When he was the front runner he beat Trump by more than Biden did in polls, but now that Biden is the presumptive nominee Biden is getting all of the support.

IMO both of them were decent candidates in the general.

Bernie is a better candidate because he can APPEAL IN THE RUST BELT. Biden's positions on trade and his career politician status will make him toxic with the WWC. He is Hillary 2.0 just a less hated version.

[SN2903]

I hope some of the die hards continue to underestimate Biden.

Lack of enthusiasm doesn't mean you aren't going to vote.

What challenger without a lack of enthusiasm ever won? Bill in '92 had big enthusiasm as did Reagan in '80.

[SN2903]

Too early to speculate about anything

True but it's fun

[JRP1994]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

That's just not what we've been seeing in the Dem debates though. Biden's last 3-4 debates have been his best of the entire primary, and his last two have been his sharpest. He's getting better at debates, not worse.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think that at this point Trump is a favorite to win. And even so I don't see him winning the overall popular vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I may now comment in my non-joke persona, this poll made my day yesterday (pathetic, I know)! Sure, it's still early but it's just nice to know that even as Americans (the most important ones in this case) approve of Trump's handling of this crisis, basically just because he is the President, that it doesn't necessarily mean that they don't want better leadership too.

And as for the "polls were wrong in 2016" excuse we always hear, keep in mind that Marquette was among the most accurate pollsters back in 2018 and that Democrats will not be taking this state for granted at all this year.

I will not deny that the Badger State is still a tossup, but perhaps all of the concern over how supposedly far right this state is trending to an unwinnable extent for Democrats will decrease now. It may never vote as it did for Obama both times ever again, but for this state to have the potential to vote to the left of where it was in 2000 and 2004, if this poll is anything to go by, is pretty remarkable and may suggest that it too could have been a fluke in 2016, if it delivers on this in November.

[SN2903]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

That's just not what we've been seeing in the Dem debates though. Biden's last 3-4 debates have been his best of the entire primary, and his last two have been his sharpest. He's getting better at debates, not worse.

Going up against Bernie is not Trump. Bernie is really not that good of a debater. He's not awful but he isn't good at putting his opponent on the spot and challenging them. He kind of backs down too easily. Trump won't.  Hillary low key kicked Bernie's butt in the debates and Trump resoundingly beat Hillary in the 2nd debate. It wasn't even close. Trump is no Reagan in debates or anything but he's a showman and he's good at getting under his opponents skin: Jeb, Marco and Hillary to some degree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

That's just not what we've been seeing in the Dem debates though. Biden's last 3-4 debates have been his best of the entire primary, and his last two have been his sharpest. He's getting better at debates, not worse.

Going up against Bernie is not Trump. Bernie is really not that good of a debater. He's not awful but he isn't good at putting his opponent on the spot and challenging them. He kind of backs down too easily. Trump won't.  Hillary low key kicked Bernie's butt in the debates and Trump resoundingly beat Hillary in the 2nd debate. It wasn't even close. Trump is no Reagan in debates or anything but he's a showman and he's good at getting under his opponents skin: Jeb, Marco and Hillary to some degree.

As I stated over and over again, Bush W signed no child left behind, he built the wall, he signed Minimum wage reform, all McCain ideas that's why Bush W got reelected. Bush W also signed campaign finance reform after Enron. Bill Clinton signed welfare reform that's why they got reelected.  Trump have Bill's on Leader McConnells desk minimum wage reform and campaign finance reform that he wont sign and Biden said he would in his first 100 days

That's why Biden is leading 50/41

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

John Kerry also over performed in the Rust Belt and would have won the EV in in a PV tie. Bush wasted votes in the Sun Belt and TX especially.

[chibul]

Wisconsin polls scare me. Hillary Clinton was leading by comfortable margins in all of them a week before the election.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

You think Trump is gonna win every swing state and win the popular vote by like 5%, you just repeat the same thing over and over again and it's getting old

Yeah, he's an absolute, hackish moron.

[tagimaucia]

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

If GDP really contracts by double digits in Q2, yes, the race might be close to over before it begins, but the other way around.  In that scenario, Biden (who I agree is a very flawed candidate!) could get ALS and be roaming around in a wheelchair and probably still win.

Fundamentals matter so much more than many people on this forum realize/acknowledge. When those fundamentals are extreme or unusual, they matter way more than personalities or people.  Trump will try to argue the economy was out of his control or that its all Democratic governor's faults, but its not going to work imo, even if the former is completely true. Historically, voters always hold the incumbent responsible for a severe economic downturn, fairly or not.

Also, a thing people don't like to admit but is clearly true is that the debates don't actually matter very much. They create temporary bounces that always fade away quickly into whatever the status quo was pre-debates.  Maybe the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate actually mattered since that one was a few days before the election. The Comey letter mattered 100x more than the debates in 2016 because voters have very short memories.

[JRP1994]

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

If GDP really contracts by double digits in Q2, yes, the race might be close to over before it begins, but the other way around.  In that scenario, Biden (who I agree is a very flawed candidate!) could get ALS and be roaming around in a wheelchair and probably still win.

Fundamentals matter so much more than many people on this forum realize/acknowledge. When those fundamentals are extreme or unusual, they matter way more than personalities or people.  Trump will try to argue the economy was out of his control or that its all Democratic governor's faults, but its not going to work imo, even if the former is completely true. Historically, voters always hold the incumbent responsible for a severe economic downturn, fairly or not.

Also, a thing people don't like to admit but is clearly true is that the debates don't actually matter very much. They create temporary bounces that always fade away quickly into whatever the status quo was pre-debates.  Maybe the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate actually mattered since that one was a few days before the election. The Comey letter mattered 100x more than the debates in 2016 because voters have very short memories.

People forget just how damaging the Access Hollywood tape was for Trump. He was in freefall for a week after it came out, and by about mid October, Clinton was leading nationally by 7% and on track for an Obama 2008 style win. That came back down to earth a little bit, but on the day of the Comey letter, she was leading by about 4-5%. Within a week of the Comey letter, that was down to 1% and only rebounded to about 2-3% by election day.

[AGA]

When being down 3-points in a must-win state are "excellent" numbers.

[Woody]

When being down 3-points in a must-win state are "excellent" numbers.

Son, ever heard about this thing called 2004?

[Roll Roons]

When being down 3-points in a must-win state are "excellent" numbers.

Son, ever heard about this thing called 2004?

Is Trump going to win Virginia, Colorado or New Mexico? Bush won Dallas County, all of Chicago's collar counties, Prince William in VA, Wake in NC, and even got within 10 in CALIFORNIA (!!!!) Coalitions have changed since then.

[Badger]

Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

You think Trump is gonna win every swing state and win the popular vote by like 5%, you just repeat the same thing over and over again and it's getting old

No I don't. I think the popular vote will be D+1 to R+2

You also thought John James would sweep to winning the senate race in Michigan. You were wrong. This is a bad but consistent precedent for you.

[Hammy]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

[NHI]

This poll is a little too close for comfort, but better than down three points. I do have the feeling Biden will pulls a lot of surprises come election day; at least that's what I'm hoping!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI is gonna vote like it has been in past with Dem roots. Now, Rs have to worry about FL with DeSantis falling approvals during coronas. He is ripe to be defeated in 2022