WI-Marquette: Biden +3%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excellent numbers for Trump. Most WI polls underestimate R-support anyway, so it doesn't matter, especially this early.

He's trailing the presumptive Democratic nominee in a must-win state in the middle of his "bump"...

[ProudModerate2]

And this is despite Trump's positive marks on handling coronavirus.

Dont say that. You will give SN a heart attack.

[SN2903]

Outlier. Trump is gonna win WI

[SN2903]

Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

You think Trump is gonna win every swing state and win the popular vote by like 5%, you just repeat the same thing over and over again and it's getting old

[chibul]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

[Orser67]

Between this poll, the Grinnell/Selzer national poll, and the Harvard/Harris national poll, this has been a really good week of polling for the "Biden is more electable than Sanders" argument.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

[SN2903]

Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

You think Trump is gonna win every swing state and win the popular vote by like 5%, you just repeat the same thing over and over again and it's getting old

No I don't. I think the popular vote will be D+1 to R+2

[SN2903]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable which is why I think Bernie is a better fit for WI and MI than Biden. Biden's senility issues will be icing on the cake for Trump

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excellent numbers for Trump. Most WI polls underestimate R-support anyway, so it doesn't matter, especially this early.

He's trailing the presumptive Democratic nominee in a must-win state in the middle of his "bump"...

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable.

Your arrogance is astounding.  

"Indisputable"?  This simply isn't true; Biden stirs up nowhere near the visceral dislike that Hillary did among some voters.  If you don't see this, you're being willfully blind.  (And yes, I personally know some union WWC voters in Wisconsin who are examples of this; they voted for Johnson in 2016 because they couldn't stomach Hillary, but will happily vote for Biden).

You claim that every poll that goes against your intuition is wrong.  You pronounce with certainty that Trump will definitely win the election overall,  Michigan (despite consistently strong polling for Biden), Wisconsin, and who knows what else.  Why should we trust your clearly biased "inutition" over gold-standard pollsters like Marquette?

You should try a little humility instead of certainty, and maybe people would take you more seriously and pleasantly instead of dismissing you as an obnoxious jerk.  

[SN2903]

I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable.

Your arrogance is astounding.  

"Indisputable"?  This simply isn't true; Biden stirs up nowhere near the visceral dislike that Hillary did among some voters.  If you don't see this, you're being willfully blind.  (And yes, I personally know some union WWC voters in Wisconsin who are examples of this; they voted for Johnson in 2016 because they couldn't stomach Hillary, but will happily vote for Biden).

You claim that every poll that goes against your intuition is wrong.  You pronounce with certainty that Trump will definitely win the election overall,  Michigan (despite consistently strong polling for Biden), Wisconsin, and who knows what else.  Why should we trust your clearly biased "inutition" over gold-standard pollsters like Marquette?

You should try a little humility instead of certainty, and maybe people would take you more seriously and pleasantly instead of dismissing you as an obnoxious jerk.  

I don't think it's 100%. I think it is 80% chance he wins like I said two days ago. The only way I can see him losing is if we go into a depression which is possible but I don't see it. I think the virus will calm down by late May early June and things will slowly start recovering. If democrats had a better opponent I would be much less confident. Biden is just simply not a good candidate. Sure he is not as disliked as Hillary but he isn't inspiring and he is not an outsider type candidate which is who defeats incumbents: Reagan, Bill Clinton.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I could see Biden winning with Evers-type numbers.  I could even see him replicating his map more or less.

If Biden does win Wisconsin, it will probably be by about that margin. The state has gotten redder even since 2016.

Scrappy Joe's Scranton mega coattails will extend all the way from Scranton to Milwaukee.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could see Biden winning with Evers-type numbers.  I could even see him replicating his map more or less.

If Biden does win Wisconsin, it will probably be by about that margin. The state has gotten redder even since 2016.

Scrappy Joe's Scranton mega coattails will extend all the way from Scranton to Milwaukee.

no, they will run from Minneapolis to Newport.

[wbrocks67]

This is also WITH Trump's corona "bounce" too, so... yeah. Not good for Trump.

[Xing]

WI is a Toss-Up that neither candidate can take for granted. News at 11.

Excellent numbers for Trump. Most WI polls underestimate R-support anyway, so it doesn't matter, especially this early.

Still Governor Scott Walker agrees.

[DrScholl]

I could see Biden winning with Evers-type numbers.  I could even see him replicating his map more or less.

If Biden does win Wisconsin, it will probably be by about that margin. The state has gotten redder even since 2016.

Redder how? Not based on real election results. Every statewide office up in 2018 was won by a Democrats (two Republican incumbents were defeated). If anything it has gotten bluer since 2016 if you are going to make such pronouncements.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nooo! Wisconsin was supposed to become the Florida of the Midwest! I was ready to drive my tractor up there and personally introduce infant alligators into their lakes!

[JRP1994]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

[SN2903]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

[JRP1994]

Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

[tagimaucia]

Between this poll, the Grinnell/Selzer national poll, and the Harvard/Harris national poll, this has been a really good week of polling for the "Biden is more electable than Sanders" argument.

For whatever reason, who has done better in head-to-head polls has just tracked with whoever was most likely to win the nomination at that time. i.e., for most of the time before primaries started, Biden was doing the best. Then, for a week or two before South Carolina, Bernie was actually doing slightly better than Biden in a slight majority of head-to-heads. Now Biden is doing the best again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Gary Johnson did take more votes from Trump than Hilary, the image of the theft of the election is still there and that's why Gary Johnson did so bad in NM Senate race
 Likewise in MN, WI, PA and MI, Trump will do bad in these states due to fact the appearance of stealing the election is there. WI is a Democratic state

[Mr. Illini]

Wonderful news! America's Dairyland will return to their Midwestern nice values and tell the nut in the WH to pack his bags and head back to 5th Avenue!

Still a toss up, though.