2024: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg vs. Nikki Haley/Josh Hawley

[libertpaulian]

Biden/Harris wins decisively in 2020 due to Trump's fumbled response to COVID-19 and the resulting economic fallout.  Democrats gain 5-10 seats in the House and retake the Senate.  The virus is fully/nearly-fully contained in 2021, but the economy remains sluggish.  

In 2022, the midterms don't go as badly as expected for Biden, thanks to redistricting in some key states and demographic changes.  Democrats lose seats, but they are able to hold onto the House, and the Senate is a wash.  

President Biden announces in late January 2023 that he is not running for a second term.  Vice President Harris almost immediately announces her candidacy in the Democratic primary.

The Dem primary contenders are as follows: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Andrew Cuomo, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Michelle Lujan-Grisham, and AOC.  Pundits unanimously state that Harris is definitely the one to beat, and that Whitmer, Newson, Cuomo, Pritzker, and Beshear will be fighting like wild animals for #2, given their praiseworthy responses to the coronavirus outbreak.  Of course, the primaries run their own course.  The final contenders pre-Iowa are Harris, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom, and AOC.  The early states are somewhat bloody like 2020, but VP Harris is able to consolidate support on Super Tuesday and almost glides to the nomination.  

VP Harris picks Pete Buttigieg as her VP, as he was Secretary of Defense in the Biden Administration (resigned prior to running).  

On the GOP side, it's an even bloodier fight among Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, Thomas Massie, and Donald Trump, Jr.  Haley barely hobbles to the nomination without having to worry about a brokered convention.  She picks Hawley in order to consolidate support among the Trumpists and also the fast-growing "market skeptical" wing of the GOP, of which FOX News personality Tucker Carlson is considered to be the icon.  

It's a long, grueling autumn.  Haley wins the first debate, Harris wins the second debate, and the third is considered a wash.  Buttigieg easily vanquishes Hawley in the VP debate.

Polling averages show Harris winning the popular vote by around 4-5%.

Who wins?

[😥]

My guess:

VP Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Fmr. Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 293 EVs; 51.1% PV
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) 245 EVs; 47.8% PV

[President Johnson]

If Kamala Harris as vice president runs to replace Joe Biden in 2024, I think Roy Cooper, if reelected this November, would be the best possible running mate for her. Term-limited swing state governor, who balances the ticket a number of ways and has a good set of experience.

[vanteran]

I dunno if Buttigieg would be Defense Secretary, I know he has experience in the military but seems like too big of a leap for him. I've read that he would likely nab the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in a Biden cabinet which would still be effective at strengthening his resume. Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary under Obama, is allegedly the front-runner for the Defense post (Source: https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-cabinet-vice-president-picks-b17882ac-3953-450f-8afb-38a3c8dcda57.html). I think Andrew Cuomo would be a strong running mate also for Harris given the bipartisan acclaim he received for his leadership during the COVID-19 crisis. Although he doesn't likely make any specific swing states be put into play by himself, the Harris-Cuomo ticket would be perceived as very experienced and well qualified.

Also, I'm not so sure that many individuals challenge Harris, I think she simply has one person run against her from the center, like Beshear, and one person from the left, like AOC, challenge her. I think with Harris' incumbency as VP + all the establishment support and fundraising that goes along with her position and the fact it would be historic to have the first female president, let alone an African American female, would scare off a lot of contenders like Newsom and Cuomo, who both claim they have zero presidential ambitions. Newsom would easily endorse Harris as he did in 2020, and Cuomo would instead put his ambitions on being the VP as previously mentioned.

[bagelman]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1og6

[2016]

My guess:

VP Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Fmr. Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 293 EVs; 51.1% PV
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) 245 EVs; 47.8% PV

If that is the Election Haley wins 271-267. And your Map is completely off because it doesn't reflect the 2020 Census.
2024 might be the year where Republicans unamimously have a shot of winning the entire Midwest which consists of IA, OH, MN, MI, WI, PA.