States on "borrowed time" for each party

[pppolitics]

I have previously made a thread about this:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=331312.0
   
7 States Where Demographics Haven't Determined Their Political Destiny -- Yet

[Del Tachi]

"Borrowed time" to me implies that a state has been dominated by its preferred party for quite some time (a generation or longer), demographic/social change away from the dominant party has been established, and the main factor keeping the state in the same column are factors like incumbency, party loyalty + party infrastructure.

I don't think any states are truly on "borrowed time", in this sense, but if I had to name two I'd say Arizona for the GOP and Rhode Island for the Dems.

[Sumner 1868]

I don't see why people think the northern states will become a GOP bloc unless they think that the entire U.S. is going to have Deep South voting patterns by mid-century.

[Person Man]

"Borrowed time" to me implies that a state has been dominated by its preferred party for quite some time (a generation or longer), demographic/social change away from the dominant party has been established, and the main factor keeping the state in the same column are factors like incumbency, party loyalty + party infrastructure.

I don't think any states are truly on "borrowed time", in this sense, but if I had to name two I'd say Arizona for the GOP and Rhode Island for the Dems.

Or by "borrowed time", a battleground state is or is about to be absorbed into one of the major national party machines.

[S019]

Looking at trends, etc. alone, these are the ones that will almost certainly flip within the next 20 years


R to D: AZ, GA, TX
D to R: MN, ME, MI

[Nightcore Nationalist]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

Vermont is an underrated GOP pickup oppurtunity in 2020. It's the second-whitest state in the country after West Virginia.

Down the road, probably. But not 2020.

Percentages don’t matter as much for these smaller states. Vermont’s D+26 is really about 70k votes, not some insurmountable 3 million difference like in California.

Plus, Vermont is projected to lose population in upcoming years, just like most Northeast states. Its population in the last decade has stagnated.

This.  Heck, Vermont is a better opportunity than Connecticut/Rhode Island because those have most of their population in one large metro.  Vermont is very rural and much poorer too.

[Dr. MB]

wish we lived in a time where "much poorer" didn't mean "more Republican"

[Calthrina950]

R to D - Texas,  Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina

D to R - Maine, New Mexico, Delaware, Wisconsin

That's about it.

Definitely not New Mexico... and Delaware is too tied to Philadelphia to turn into a red state.

Heavily Democratic New Castle County alone will keep Delaware in the Democratic column.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

R to D - Texas,  Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina

D to R - Maine, New Mexico, Delaware, Wisconsin

That's about it.

Definitely not New Mexico... and Delaware is too tied to Philadelphia to turn into a red state.

Heavily Democratic New Castle County alone will keep Delaware in the Democratic column.

[Figueira]

People here really know nothing about Vermont.

I don't think we can confidently answer this question about any state. By the time any of these shifts are supposed to happen, there might be a realignment.

[Koharu]

I can't help but giggle at all the claims for Minnesota. Minnesota hit its ceiling for a Republican with Trump. The rural areas are depopulating fast and the Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato, and other urban areas are booming. While Republicans may not lose ground, they're certainly not going to gain any.

[Person Man]

I can't help but giggle at all the claims for Minnesota. Minnesota hit its ceiling for a Republican with Trump. The rural areas are depopulating fast and the Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato, and other urban areas are booming. While Republicans may not lose ground, they're certainly not going to gain any.

What's causing Minnesota to urbanize while people are abandoning cities in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan?

[Figueira]

wish we lived in a time where "much poorer" didn't mean "more Republican"

It only does if you're talking about white people.

[Agonized-Statism]

I don't see why people think the northern states will become a GOP bloc unless they think that the entire U.S. is going to have Deep South voting patterns by mid-century.

Generational turnover. Young people in the north are already receptive to the more secular GOP. Demographics are favorable for the party there: white Catholics and shrinking cities. Already, the margins are shrinking and states are flipping. No one is saying they'll be solid, but the party will very likely do what they have to in order to consolidate the region once large parts of the south and southwest go forever.

If not there, where? I wouldn't bet on the map staying the exact same forever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since 2020s are big yrs for Dems in Senate from 2020-2025, these states are on borrowed time for Rs

[ProgressiveModerate]

Since 2020s are big yrs for Dems in Senate from 2020-2025, these states are on borrowed time for Rs

IA is not on borrowed time for the GOP, just based on how white it is and the lack of cities it should be Dems who are on borrowed time. WV the GOP will on to for a long time, even if they don't win by crazy 40 point margins. KS will never really be competative, it'll just temporarily get a little more blue because the GOP shot itself in the foot there but soon they'll recover. the midwestern states as a whole the cities are shrinking and rural areas are becoming more R, I can't see MI, WI or OH voting D after 2030s unless there's some big wave year. I suspect PA will remain competative because Philly grounds the state and at worst it becomes Lean R. Honestly, when I was very very new to politics I expected PA to be a safe D state.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

R to D - Texas,  Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina

D to R - Maine, New Mexico, Delaware, Wisconsin

That's about it.

NC's gonna be a swing state for both parties for quite a while longer, rural NC is actually much more populated than people appreciate and is trending rightwards still

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since 2020s are big yrs for Dems in Senate from 2020-2025, these states are on borrowed time for Rs

IA is not on borrowed time for the GOP, just based on how white it is and the lack of cities it should be Dems who are on borrowed time. WV the GOP will on to for a long time, even if they don't win by crazy 40 point margins. KS will never really be competative, it'll just temporarily get a little more blue because the GOP shot itself in the foot there but soon they'll recover. the midwestern states as a whole the cities are shrinking and rural areas are becoming more R, I can't see MI, WI or OH voting D after 2030s unless there's some big wave year. I suspect PA will remain competative because Philly grounds the state and at worst it becomes Lean R. Honestly, when I was very very new to politics I expected PA to be a safe D state.

I selected IA, because Mike Franken or Greenfield can unseat Ernst and JD Scholten can unseat King. As far as KS, with Kobach winning the primary, Barb Bollier will take this seat

[Don Vito Corleone]

Maine and Georgia are really the only two obvious ones, if you ask me.

However, I’ll also throw Alaska and Montana into the mix.

Why Alaska and Montana?

[Don Vito Corleone]

I think some of the people here are trendwetting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New map

[annecortez]

Thank you for letting me understand this matter.

[Pulaski]

Illinois trended maybe 5 points to the right between 2000 and 2016, is still a D+15 state, and may well trend back the other way as the suburbs become more Dem-friendly. No way is it going anywhere.

[slothdem]

Maine and Georgia are really the only two obvious ones, if you ask me.

Really it's Georgia on a different level than everything else, but Maine is the closest Dem analog. New England whites are just so different from non-New England whites, and I believe there is a pretty large age-gap in favor of the dems, so I think they'll remain competitive even as the state becomes bright purple due to demographics.

Georgia Republicans just have no chance under the current coalitions. Next Virginia.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Maine and Georgia are really the only two obvious ones, if you ask me.

Really it's Georgia on a different level than everything else, but Maine is the closest Dem analog. New England whites are just so different from non-New England whites, and I believe there is a pretty large age-gap in favor of the dems, so I think they'll remain competitive even as the state becomes bright purple due to demographics.

Georgia Republicans just have no chance under the current coalitions. Next Virginia.

Eh, I don't think GA will turn into Virginia (which will be safe D in 5 years and start voting like Illinois or New Jersey) but it will be lean D, like New Hampshire is now.