States on "borrowed time" for each party

[Tipping Point]

Basically a state that mostly votes for a certain party but is bound to flip over the next decade.

For democrats I see Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire as borrowed time states. Maine and New Hampshire are top 5 whitest states and Minnesota is whiter than both Ohio and Missouri. If Ohio is Misouri 2.0 then Minnesota is Ohio 2.0 (Wisconsin as well but they have voted R so many times we can't call it on borrowed time). Maine and NH could be WV 2.0 if locall whites start line up with the national trends, even Vermont could go from safe D to safe R in a snap.

For Republicans I only see Georgia. Texan minorities are more conservative and Romneycrats are a not enough to flip it. Florida is trending Republican with the retiree influx and North Carolina is the new Florida, the state democrats have the illusion they'll flip but never do.

[Nyvin]

R to D - Texas,  Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina

D to R - Maine, New Mexico, Delaware, Wisconsin

That's about it.

[brucejoel99]

If the ME Dems can keep their act together & keep recruiting solid candidates, then they'll be fine.

GA & TX for the GOP.

[Agonized-Statism]

[OSR stands with Israel]

What do you mean by borrowed time , a state going from solidly one party to solidly the other like Virginia or going from solidly one party to a battleground like Arizona.

If its the former , I would only say Mississippi for the GOP cause the fact is by 2032 the GOP strategy of winning 80%+ of the White Vote(which is required for them to win MS) wont be viable and I highly doubt the GOP would adjust to save very few electoral votes. I think the GOP will adjust over time to save states like Texas and maybe Georgia.

For the Dems there isnt one I can think of right now.



If its the latter, I would say Georgia for the Republicans and that borrowed time might be here in 2020, and as for Texas I think if Trump loses this year , it will be the best gift possible for the TX GOP and GOP will adjust to keep the state GOP.


As for Dems I would say MN and CT(MN is still solidly Dem at the state level and I think that will change)

[Person Man]

Basically a state that mostly votes for a certain party but is bound to flip over the next decade.

For democrats I see Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire as borrowed time states. Maine and New Hampshire are top 5 whitest states and Minnesota is whiter than both Ohio and Missouri. If Ohio is Misouri 2.0 then Minnesota is Ohio 2.0 (Wisconsin as well but they have voted R so many times we can't call it on borrowed time). Maine and NH could be WV 2.0 if locall whites start line up with the national trends, even Vermont could go from safe D to safe R in a snap.

For Republicans I only see Georgia. Texan minorities are more conservative and Romneycrats are a not enough to flip it. Florida is trending Republican with the retiree influx and North Carolina is the new Florida, the state democrats have the illusion they'll flip but never do.

There isn't like a permanent supply of rich(or at least rustbelters who think they are because they have a dozen guns and a half a million dollars) hexagenarians and septigenarians to keep the sunbelt Republican forever. There aren't enough Gen Xers that can afford to retire the way boomers did (there aren't as many Xers for that matter) and Millennials aren't going to be as rich or conservative even 30 or 40 years from now.  There's no reasonable scenario that only Georgia flips and the major states around it don't.

Texas I can see being saved by the fact that the minorities there may be more "aspirational" than minorities in other areas. If you consider Cubans white, Florida's demographics and voting habits start to make sense when you also account for the poor discipline of the state Democratic party.

[RINO Tom]

Why, exactly, would Republicans be primed to make up any ground in New Mexico...?

[morgieb]

Why, exactly, would Republicans be primed to make up any ground in New Mexico...?

Fairly working-class state where most of the Hispanics tend to be more or less "Spanish" than "Mexican". Accordingly it's possible that a more populist Republican make inroads here, especially if Trump loses and they're able to find a balance of "populist conservatism without the overt white nationalism".

[538Electoral]

D to R: MN, ME, NH
R to D: NC

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

R to D - Texas,  Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina

D to R - Maine, New Mexico, Delaware, Wisconsin

That's about it.

Definitely not New Mexico... and Delaware is too tied to Philadelphia to turn into a red state.

[clever but short]

Maine for Democrats

Arizona, Texas for Republicans

North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[MT Treasurer]

Maine and Georgia are really the only two obvious ones, if you ask me.

However, I’ll also throw Alaska and Montana into the mix.

[Intell]

New Mexic & Colorado tbh latino's population is primed to swing republican anytime soon. Florida too with older people and conservative latinos are going to trend republican. NH and ME, MN have a substantial rural white democrat population so those two states possibly as well.

GA,NC will be the new Virginia, TX and AZ could be on borrowed time but the latino population in those states will eventually swing republican.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maine and Georgia are really the only two obvious ones, if you ask me.

However, I’ll also throw Alaska and Montana into the mix.

Why Alaska?

[Please delete this account. :)]

From R to D ~ Montana (to an extent) / Georgia (probably around 2028) / N. Carolina (probably around 2032) / Arizona (probably around 2022/2024) / Texas (probably around 2028)

From D to R ~ Minnesota (No idea when it might flip) / Wisconsin / Michigan / Maine / N.Hampshire

[Person Man]

From R to D ~ Montana (to an extent) / Georgia (probably around 2028) / N. Carolina (probably around 2032) / Arizona (probably around 2022/2024) / Texas (probably around 2028)

From D to R ~ Minnesota (No idea when it might flip) / Wisconsin / Michigan / Maine / N.Hampshire

I think Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia vote for the next Democrat unless its a very close election. Even then, I think Arizona and North Carolina might still vote Democrat.

For the D to Rs, I think Democrats will still win all or at least all but one of them when they win again, maybe they won't need them the next time they win.

[dw93]

R to D: AZ, NC, GA, TX

D to R: ME, NH, MN, MI, WI

MI will likely stay Dem till '28 unless the Democrats will sh*t the bed between now and then. It'll be Republican by 2032. Same is more or less true for ME at large, and MN.

[Catalyst138]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

Vermont is an underrated GOP pickup oppurtunity in 2020. It's the second-whitest state in the country after West Virginia.

[brucejoel99]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

Vermont is an underrated GOP pickup oppurtunity in 2020. It's the second-whitest state in the country after West Virginia.

I really hope this is satire.

[Catalyst138]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

Vermont is an underrated GOP pickup oppurtunity in 2020. It's the second-whitest state in the country after West Virginia.

You think Vermont is going from D+26 to voting for Trump? No way.

[Person Man]

NH isn’t really a blue state, it’s always been close.

WI is definitely going to become Safe R one day. Even the suburbs are trending R.

MN has the twin cities metro area that’s still growing; I think Dems are good there.

I don’t know why Maine votes for Democrats in the first place.

Vermont is an underrated GOP pickup oppurtunity in 2020. It's the second-whitest state in the country after West Virginia.

I really hope this is satire.

That would be like hoping a place like Colorado Springs will start trending Democratic because its such a big town.

[Catalyst138]

So, we will eventually have a Republican North and a Democratic South again? We’ve gone full circle.

[Agonized-Statism]

So, we will eventually have a Republican North and a Democratic South again? We’ve gone full circle.

Probably not a perfect regional divide, but close. Republicans turning back to their American System roots and Democrats shooting for something like Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition makes the map look fairly similar to a late 1800s election with the right demographics. Ironically, this time it's working class Catholic Republicans and black Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the Democrats, the entire rust belt minus IL, and maybe MN if the twin cities continue to grow faster than the rural areas. Maine is also on borrowed time, and maybe NH and VT, but both those states are weird. Republicans are on borrowed time in AZ, GA, NC, TX, and then maybe even SC or MS in the next 2 decades will become competative states.