Swing States in the 2030s and 40s

[Skill and Chance]

This may be a bit radical, but here we go:

1. The Republican shift from a Southern to a Midwestern base is now on full display, and they have also broken through in parts of New England.

2.  Democrats break through in the High Plains and Mountain West states to an extent not seen since the Depression (some of this is helped along by continuing Mormon 3rd party activity in Utah and to a lesser extent, Idaho).

[Skill and Chance]

Alaska has trended D in every election since the year 2004. Bush won Alaska by 25 points in 2004, while Trump won Alaska by 15 points in 2016. It has been a slow and steady drip drip in Alaska, no dramatic swings, but it adds up over time.

But you also have to compare to the national vote. Bush won by 25 percent in a a 2.5% popular vote win. You can’t expect that margin to stay in 2008 and 2012, which were weaker years for the Republican brand.

2004 - 22% +R
2008 - 20% +R
2012 - 10% + R
2016 - 17% + R

Might seem like there were some big swings (2012), but with these smaller states, percentages can vary widely, without speaking to trends.

Finally - Alaska is a state that is losing people, an event that often favors the Republicans. Since the 1970s, it’s been good for 100,000-200,000 gain per decade. Since 2010, it’s gained only about 30k people, basically stagnating since 2011-2012. It is also a state that is getting older.

That is almost 100% oil price driven.  The people who are leaving and/or not coming in would have voted near unanimous R.  That could be part of the reason it appears to be moving left.