Would Bernie Sanders have beaten Donald Trump in 2016?

[chibul]

Now that Sanders is underperforming 2016 I'm wondering what the consensus is on whether he would have beaten Trump in the general.

I'm going to say yes, because I think without the Comey letter, Hillary Clinton would have won the popular vote by at least 5 points giving her Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

I think Clinton would have been stronger in the south in places where she was going to lose anyway but I think Sanders would have outperformed her in the midwest.

One other thing to note is that I believe that the reason that Sanders is underperforming his 2016 numbers is because he hasn't expanded his coalition, and much of his 2016 vote was people voting against Hillary Clinton instead of voting for Bernie Sanders. It's clear from 2020 that Hillary Clinton is much weaker than Joe Biden and this may have meant less third party voters.

[TML]

It's impossible to say for sure, but I think likely yes.

Sanders would have been able to act as a real populist to counter Trump's fake populism. Remember that exit polls indicated that the most important candidate characteristic was the ability to bring change, and Trump won overwhelmingly against Hillary on that front. Hillary didn't promise any substantive changes to the country in her campaign, while both Trump and Sanders did.

[brucejoel99]

Probably. Or maybe not? He could very well have lost in a different way from Hillary (holding MI, PA, & WI, but losing VA & NV), but still lost. At which point, the party's moderate apparatus would say "See? This is what happens when you nominate a socialist." So perhaps the party's left dodged a bullet in 2016.

[Gracile]

Probably. Or maybe not? He could very well have lost in a different way from Hillary (holding MI, PA, & WI, but losing VA & NV), but still lost. At which point, the party's moderate apparatus would say "See? This is what happens when you nominate a socialist." So perhaps the party's left dodged a bullet in 2016.

Sanders would not lose Virginia against Trump lol.

[Intell]

Probably. Or maybe not? He could very well have lost in a different way from Hillary (holding MI, PA, & WI, but losing VA & NV), but still lost. At which point, the party's moderate apparatus would say "See? This is what happens when you nominate a socialist." So perhaps the party's left dodged a bullet in 2016.

Sanders would not lose Virginia against Trump lol.

Or NV lol. If Sanders loses he most likely has the same map as Hillary, with the same swings in the same direction but less extreme. I.e WWC counties swing less for Sanders, and the college educated suburbs swing less for Clinton. Middle Class uneducated suburbs are the big ? on whether Sanders or Clinton would do better in them.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

In 2016 he would have beat Trump
In 2020 he would have lost to Trump

[RINO Tom]

Lean Yes ... I think Bernie boosts turnout among (ideological) base voters, and I don't think his minority turnout would be any worse than Hillary's.  He likely flips just enough states to tip the scales in the EC, and I don't think his comparatively worse suburban performance compared to Hillary - a debate in its own right - would offset his gains vs. her.

[SWE]

Yes. It would have taken a historically bad candidate to lose to Trump.

[Asenath Waite]

No doubt in my mind. He would have stolen Trump's populist appeal and forced him to run as a normal Republican, it would actually have been pretty similar to the campaign that Obama ran against Mitt Romney.

[Elcaspar]

I would say yes as well.

Combine his populist appeal with the large comparative polling leads he held against Trump it would likely be a victory for Bernie. How large it would be i cannot say, it could be anywhere from just holding the Blue Wall to being able to win North Carolina and only relatively narrowly losing in Missouri and Indiana.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Perhaps. But first he would have had to get through the Democratic primaries, and in order to do that, he would have had to run a very different primary campaign, which then leads to questions whether his appealing "populist outsider" image would have been the same.

[jamestroll]

It is fun discussing hypotheticals but these types of threads you can pretty much end up saying anything you want and argue to death you are right.

Like if Sanders lost to Trump there would be all these hot takes that Hillary would have won due to not being a socialist and her experience.

I am inclined to believe that at the time Sanders would have been able to carry WI, MI and PA. But you have to wonder if he would have been able to carry VA and he would have done very poorly in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida , etc.

Possibly a reverse Hillary.

[SInNYC]

It is fun discussing hypotheticals but these types of threads you can pretty much end up saying anything you want and argue to death you are right.

Like if Sanders lost to Trump there would be all these hot takes that Hillary would have won due to not being a socialist and her experience.

I am inclined to believe that at the time Sanders would have been able to carry WI, MI and PA. But you have to wonder if he would have been able to carry VA and he would have done very poorly in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida , etc.

Possibly a reverse Hillary.

If Bernie had lost to Trump, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the party, the media, and pretty much everybody else would be saying 'Democrats screwed up by nominating a loony left winger and losing to a person Hillary would have trounced'. Moreover, the party would have instituted rule changes to reduce the chance of anybody from the left half of the party being even remotely close to winning in 2020.