Will third parties get even more irrelevant?

[AltWorlder]

First off,

1. Third parties are already irrelevant. I still post about them because I find them entertaining and fascinating, sort of like political fandom drama. A lot of fringe ideologies being represented. I know that Duvuger's Law and the entrenched power of the duopoly basically prevents a real third party from forming.

2. Third parties aren't going away. There will always be fringe groups and vanity candidates who have more money than they know what to do with.

However, I believe third parties will get more irrelevant compared to in the past. There's been many an influential third party that represented sentiments that the major parties didn't. Populists and the People's Party, Greenbacks, Progressives, Socialists, Dixiecrats, Reform, the list goes on and on. Even the Republicans were once a third party.

But I think those days are behind. And the reasons I believe are the following:

A. As pointed out elsewhere, polarization in the major parties leads to people not wanting to vote for third party. Only when dissatisfaction occurs with both major parties do people opt out.

B. I think the one-two punch of Perot 1992 and then Nader 2000 really put the fear in God of spoiler effects in your average Democrat voter, AND and your Republican voter.

C. There's not really any powerful turncoats joining third parties anymore. Teddy Roosevelt joining the Progressives in 1912 was a high water mark. Since then, what previously powerful politicians have done a third party run? Henry Wallace? George Wallace? Berners clamor for Sanders to run third party, be he will never do so- and he's already an Independent! Not even Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian in 2008. Not even Justin Amash- a much lesser known figure is doing so now. Your Lincoln Chaffees, Mike Gravels, Alan Keyeses, Virgil Goodes, Cynthia McKinneys, and so on will not elevate third parties out of the ghetto of fringe ideology.

D. As far as third parties created exclusively as vehicles for third party runs, Perot was the high water mark, but some of his stances were absorbed by the GOP. Both parties have become bigger tents to accommodate a greater range of radical or kooky ideas. (Not that the '92 Reform Party platform was all that kooky, relatively speaking- and I'm referring to Republicans supporting balanced budget, not their recent Trump-led conversion to rejecting NAFTA.)

E. Finally, based on what I've seen of established third party debates, most third party politicians all have generally the same anti-establishment message. It sounds paradoxical, but both the far left PSL and pretty left Greens, and the far economic right Libertarians, and socially right Constitutions, all end up agreeing about the same anti-establishment talking points: the federal government is too powerful, Washington isn't serving the people, corporations have too much power and are abusing the system, government is corrupt, end the Drug War, end foreign military adventures, end the surveillance state, end the duopoly. They have radically different suggestions for how to achieve that, but perhaps they all tap into the inherent populist, anti-establishment outrage that all third parties outside of the two-party system end up using. But because they all end up saying generally the same thing, they don't really end up getting anywhere with it, and just kind of remain self-marginalized outsider of the mainstream.

[CookieDamage]

Tea.

[Grassroots]

There are rifts growing in both parties. On the left, a split is growing between progressives and moderate democrats. On the right, a split is growing between more socially liberal "libertarian" types and nationalist/populist conservatives (Trump has covered this up but he won't be around forever).

We have already seen the divisions, they are growing. The "and bust" mentality is only going to grow. Idealism is the dominant mindset in American politics going forward.

IMO, it's not a question of if we become a multi-party system sometime soon, but when. I say sometime later this decade.

[AltWorlder]

IMO, it's not a question of if we become a multi-party system sometime soon, but when. I say sometime later this decade.

Still impossible until the third parties get better at pushing for ballot and other electoral reform together, and sympathizers in the major parties help as well. But sure, polarization might lead to more firebrand leaders to arrive, and unlike Bernie Sanders or Ron Paul they might actually make good on threats to run third party.