2020 Texas Redistricting thread (user search)
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  2020 Texas Redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Texas Redistricting thread  (Read 57056 times)
dpmapper
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« on: March 29, 2020, 12:31:26 PM »

The growth in Austin, Houston, and DFW has been so massive over the last 10 years that anything drawn with equal 2010 populations is pretty much worthless. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2020, 06:26:43 AM »

It's wishful thinking to believe that the people moving to the Houston outer suburbs are going to be voting Dem at a 70-30 clip.  Most *inner loop* precincts that aren't black- or Hispanic-dominated don't even vote like that. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2020, 11:11:39 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2020, 11:23:39 AM by dpmapper »

You can definitely make one of the 4 Houston districts Tilt-R without endangering the others, and have the San Antonio district that heads west be majority Hispanic but still lean R if you're willing to get a little uglier.



Austin/San Antonio:


Houston:


DFW:


All GOP districts are at least Trump+20 other than TX-7 in Harris County (Trump +7), TX-23 in San Antonio + west (Trump +6, 59.6% Hispanic by VAP), and TX-27 (Corpus Christi-San Antonio, Trump +18).  Some cleaning up can be done in DFW since my 6th (gray), 17th, and 12th (tan) are Trump +30, Trump +41, Trump +38 respectively.  

Fun fact: TX-9 has whites as the 4th-most populous racial group. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2020, 09:36:39 PM »

No reason to have 4 sinks in Houston.  You can keep the three sinks, make TX-7 lean R (at least for the first part of the decade), and still have every other seat in the region be quite safe. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2020, 07:57:30 AM »




TX-7 is Trump+7, all others Trump+20 or more. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2020, 02:47:28 PM »


Yes. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2020, 11:04:03 PM »

Not worried about water and power shortages? 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 10:41:36 PM »

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

Did California's brownouts and water rationing stop after the 20th century, or get worse?
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dpmapper
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 11:07:01 PM »

But doesn't this get rid of the Hispanic district straddling San Antonio and Austin?  So it's not a net gain in Hispanic opportunities. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 11:41:31 PM »

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.

Doesn't need to hold all decade.  If it starts at 3 Dem seats in (say) DFW and all but one R seat is safe all decade, that's better than 4 sinks. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2020, 10:19:41 PM »

GOP could totally draw one compact McAllen-Brownsville seat, keep Cuellar's seat roughly the way it is, and then have a Harlingen-Corpus seat and a slightly redrawn TX-15, for four Hispanic RGV seats (plus TX-23 which can easily be shored up).  You can draw the new TX-15 and the Harlingen-Corpus seats so that Trump won them by a couple points in 2016, so with the way south Texas went right this election, they'd probably be likely R at worst now.  How would the argument that the compact seat packs too many Hispanics fly if the number of Hispanic districts in the region goes up? 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2020, 10:34:00 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 10:41:09 AM by dpmapper »



Here's what I mocked up.  TX-23 goes to Odessa instead of El Paso, it's 59.6% Hispanic by CVAP and 53.8-42.1 Trump in 2016.  (Clinton won the current version by 3.4%, so this should make Gonzales quite safe.)  You can up the Hispanic numbers a bit by playing around with the precincts in San Antonio.  

Cuellar's TX-28 (pink) is 60.7% Hispanic, 59.8% Clinton, about the same as before.  Again you can play around with the precincts in San Antonio if you like, I wasn't very careful with those.  

TX-15 in orange is 64.7% Hispanic by CVAP, and Trump won 48.5-47.3 in 2016.  Trump lost the current version by 16.7 points in 2016.  If De la Cruz-Hernandez runs again here, she'd be favored in a Biden midterm, I would think, given that she lost by less than 3% this time.  

The district that goes to Corpus Christi in lighter green is 63.1% Hispanic CVAP.  Trump won in 2016 by 49.1%-47%.  This is very similar to the district Blake Farenthold initially won in, except Brownsville is out and Harlingen in (which is a good trade for Republicans).  The current TX-34 was won by Hillary 59.2-37.7.  Vela only won by 13 this year, so he'd probably run in the other district.  

Speaking of which, the border district in dark green is 91% Hispanic by CVAP, 73.6% Hillary.  

One potential issue is that TX-35 will end up contracting to just Travis County and will no longer be majority Hispanic, but since it elected Doggett anyway maybe that's not such a big deal.  
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dpmapper
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Posts: 442
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2021, 03:32:30 PM »

Will TX-07 and TX-32 be conceded or baconmandered? Will Democrats get at least one new seat?

It's not either/or.  In Houston, for instance, you can pack the 3 safe D districts, make all other seats safe R, and get TX-07 to being Trump+5 or so even while keeping it in Harris County. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2021, 10:50:18 AM »

Seems to me San Antonio is even more underpopulated than the Houston or Dallas packs! 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2021, 06:02:15 PM »

It is also worth noting that the shifts at the congressional level are nowhere near as rapid; they'll probably continue to some extent but there is no reason to think they will accelerate when Trump is not on the ballot or in office. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2021, 10:39:41 PM »

They can split the baby by making TX-7 Trump+2 or something, leaving the other districts at Trump+17 or so.  Whichever district is on the east side of Harris County (Pasadena, Baytown etc.) can be a bit closer than that since the Hispanic population over there is trending right. 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2021, 04:34:06 PM »

Lost in the kerfuffle here is that TX-23 remains quite winnable for Democrats, though will require an better national environment to do so (not likely to be 2022).

I'm sure the last few months have convinced folks in Del Rio to swing back to the Democrats.
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