2020 Texas Redistricting thread (user search)
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Texas Redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Texas Redistricting thread  (Read 57050 times)
patzer
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« on: April 10, 2021, 06:05:59 PM »

I've seen speculation that they might try to make a RGV district that's just over 50% Hispanic (for VRA purposes) but still leans Republican (thanks to the rightward shift of the RGV post-2020). Wonder how easy that would be to achieve.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2021, 05:23:33 PM »

Would anyone be able to calculate the result of extending 2012-20 trends to other districts? I tried doing it myself but turns out Texas DRA maps are too much for my laptop.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2021, 07:15:37 PM »


Very nice, thanks!

Hm. If I tentatively assume the fajitas don't go right any more and that their trend was a one-off (can hardly be repeated), but that elsewhere past trends broadly continue, then some rough calculations indicate the following districts will fall as follows-

24th falls when Texas overall is R+0.5
3rd falls when Texas is D+1, 22nd and 38th fall when it's D+2
26th falls when it's D+4, 2nd when it's D+6, 21st when it's D+7
10th and 31st fall when Texas is D+9, and the 12th when it's D+10

I didn't include the Rio Grande districts in those flip-possibility conversations; the key districts there are of course the 23rd, 15th, and 28th (in order from red to blue). Very hard to say what will become of the trends there.

So... the gerrymander will probably stick for now but a few seats may well get vulnerable in the second half of the decade. All in all it's probably the best the Republicans could have done.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2021, 02:18:18 PM »

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2021, 10:35:03 AM »

Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.
How about this?


25th = 45% Hispanic, 27% white, 23% black (plurality Hispanic)
30th = 46% black, 30% Hispanic, 18% white (plurality black)
32nd = 50% Hispanic, 28% white, 18% black (majority Hispanic)
33rd = 54% Hispanic, 26% white, 14% black (majority Hispanic)
3rd = 42% white, 32% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 12% black (could become Asian-plurality soon)
5th = 51% white, 20% Hispanic, 16% black, 12% Asian (the only white-majority blue district)

Partisan data is 2020 presidential
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