2020 Texas Redistricting thread (user search)
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  2020 Texas Redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Texas Redistricting thread  (Read 57059 times)
Former President tack50
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« on: April 05, 2020, 12:24:20 PM »

While everyone has been looking at federal redistricting, given that State Senate districts are actually larger than federal ones, opinion of this map?

https://districtr.org/edit/3296







This map should be a safe 19R-12D map. All R districts are at 58.5% Trump or more. All Dem districts are also at 58% Clinton or more.

Granted, I guess with trends and what not it could end up as a dummymander? I also think several of those districts might be illegal because of the VRA?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 10:15:12 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2020, 10:20:54 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

Much like I did for the State Senate, here is a map I drew for the federal House, now that DRA has 2018 data. This map is supposed to be an R gerrymander that is quite agressive; though as always I am never 100% sure if this follows the VRA or not. I also messed up the population numbers slightly. In general I tried to target numbers of Trump+15 or above for all the R seats:



Dfw zoom: (the unnumbered green district is district 16)



Houston zoom:



Austin+San Antonio zoom:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d9298ca6-ea4c-4741-a92d-0736920bcd70

And here are the district details:

TX-01: Clinton+42; D+18 (81% Hispanic)
TX-02: Clinton+14; D+5 (78% hispanic)
TX-03: Clinton+38; D+18 (91% Hispanic)
TX-04: Clinton+37; D+19 (92% Hispanic)
TX-05: Clinton+26; D+8 (68% Hispanic)
TX-06: Clinton+60; D+28 (43% black; 32% Hispanic; 21% white)
TX-07: Clinton+37; D+15 (59% Hispanic)
TX-08: Clinton+60; D+29 (44% black; 37% Hispanic; 17% White)
TX-09: Clinton+14; D+3 (44% Hispanic, 29% White, 20% black)
TX-10: Clinton+23; D+7 (56% Hispanic)

TX-11: Trump+19; R+14
TX-12: Trump+17; R+14
TX-13: Trump+42; R+24
TX-14: Trump+24; R+15
TX-15: Trump+20; R+12
TX-16: Trump+17; R+14
TX-17: Trump+39; R+23
TX-18: Trump+16; R+13
TX-19: Trump+19; R+15
TX-20: Trump+15; R+14

TX-21: Clinton+32; D+11 (38% Hispanic; 23% Black, 21% White; 19% Asian)

TX-22: Trump+13; R+12
TX-23: Trump+27; R+15
TX-24: Trump+31; R+21
TX-25: Trump+47; R+25

TX-26: Clinton+29; D+13 (67% Hispanic)

TX-27: Trump+16; R+11
TX-28: Trump+28; R+18
TX-29: Trump+16; R+12
TX-30: Trump+16; R+12

TX-31: Clinton+53; D+23 (50% White, 35% Hispanic)

TX-32: Trump+16; R+13
TX-33: Trump+17; R+13
TX-34: Trump+48; R+27
TX-35: Trump+61; R+32
TX-36: Trump+19; R+11
TX-37: Trump+42; R+23
TX-38: Trump+15; R+10
TX-39: Trump+51; R+27

Or in other words, here is the distrubution of the Dem districts:

1 El Paso
3 Rio Grande Valley
3 Dallas
4 Houston
1 Austin
1 San Antonio

So in total this should be a 26R-13D map; giving Republicans exactly 2/3 of the seats. In fact I think if you went with really awful looking lines, dismantling the few remaining Trump/R+A lot districts you could even do 27R-12D (probably dismantling one of the Houston districts or the Austin one); though in that scenario the lines would probably be too awful to be considered serious

Of course, I imagine with trends and what not several of these districts will be very close; in particular the 22nd looks like it would almost certainly flip by 2030.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2020, 10:47:20 AM »

Since DRA now has 2018 population data and after learning a few more things, here is my R gerrymander for the TX state Senate.



DFW inset



Houston / Austin / San Antonio inset



https://davesredistricting.org/join/75038893-d2e6-42b5-af50-40e1dda36b94

All Republican districts voted for Trump by at least 20 points in this map. The map has 20 Republican districts and 11 Democratic districts. In fact, it is slightly better than that number, as district 4 is "only" Clinton+8 and D+4, so theoretically it could fall in a wave, particularly if Hispanic turnout is down.

Making District 4 into a true swing district that is still like 70% Hispanic (and even one that is clearly majority Hispanic by CVAP!) is trivial in fact, though that might break the VRA. District 3 is in a similar situation of being 70% Hispanic by CVAP but being "only" Clinton+12.

Still, in theory 21-10 and Republicans giving themselves a 2/3 supermajority is possible but that would leave them vulnerable to a lawsuit. Though I suppose the Republicans will likely not risk it and will not try to dismantle any of the 3 Hispanic southern districts.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 10:24:37 AM »

Don't all thr fajita maps break the "communities of interest" criteria by their own design?

That map for example is especially ugly
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2020, 06:13:12 AM »

To be fair, ID Conservative has a point in that maximizing minority representation is something that gets forced too often. But that is something that is forced by the VRA, if it wasn't for that bill, in theory states would have the right to make pure 100% clean maps. (in practice, either they'd still do minority districts as packs and you'd see 80% black or hispanic districts; or the minority areas would get cracked so if repealed it would strengthen gerrymandering rather than weakening it).

Not that I support repealing it as it does much more than minority districts (and even minority districts are a good idea in theory, it's just that too many times it is used to trump COIs), but certain minority districts (in this particular case, the fajita districts for instance but there are lots of others in other states) are gerrymanders or at least look awful and respect no COIs whatsoever.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2020, 07:48:40 AM »

Anyways, here goes my attempt. This map preserves the exact amount of majority minority districts and tries to be fair too

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0db31c7b-72a6-45ba-8316-45f74148dd44



Zoom on populated areas:



This map should in theory have (based on 2016 at least) 16 Dem districts, 19 Rep districts and 4 swing districts. (2, 22, 32 and 37; 2 in Houston, 1 in Dallas and 1 in Round Rock)

The list of majority minority districts (by CVAP) is:

TX-02: 45% white, 28% Hispanic, 16% Black, 10% Asian (doesn't count)
TX-09: 45% black, 35% hispanic, 16% white (Houston black district 1)
TX-15: 87% Hispanic, 11% white (McAllen Hispanic district)
TX-16: 76% Hispanic, 18% white (El Paso Hispanic district)
TX-18: 47% Black, 27% white, 18% Hispanic (Houston black district 2)
TX-20: 58% Hispanic, 28% white, 12% black (San Antonio Hispanic district 1)
TX-22: 44% white, 20% asian, 18% Hispanic, 16% black (Doesn't count)
TX-23: 52% Hispanic, 42% White (Hispanic West Texas Republican district)
TX-27: 49% Hispanic, 44% White (No idea if this counts or not, but it's titanium R anyways)
TX-28: 76% Hispanic, 21% White (South Texas Hispanic district 1)
TX-29: 53% Hispanic, 26% White, 16% black (Houston Hispanic district)
TX-30: 57% Black, 24% Hispanic, 18% White (Dallas Black district)
TX-33: 39% Hispanic, 34% White, 21% black (Dallas Hispanic district*)
TX-34: 81% Hispanic, 17% White (South Texas Hispanic district 2)
TX-35: 62% Hispanic, 27% White (San Antonio Hispanic district 2)
TX-39: 48% White, 25% Hispanic, 24% Black (doesn't count)

*: The percentage here might be a bit low, but I wanted to avoid a gerrymander into Fort Worth
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2021, 02:21:50 PM »

For fun, here is a fair State Senate map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c80cadb-d180-44ce-bc34-b87a286a3e93

There are per DRA 14 Republican districts, 9 Democratic districts and 8 competitive districts
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2021, 06:37:23 AM »

Given DRA updates and what not, here is my attempt at a fair Texas map. I don't know if the number of VRA districts is fine or if I am lacking 1 of them but whatever.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffa4c193-70b4-4a50-b7a8-c8720cb15f88



DFW inset



Houston inset



Per DRA this should have 14 Dem districts, 7 competitive districts and 18 Republican districts, though I think DRA's characterizations of competitiveness might be a bit too generous. The competitive districts by VRA are:

District 2: Clinton+6 but R+2 in PVI; I imagine trends have made this likely D if not even Safe D?
District 22: Basically a Fort Bend district, this must be likely D if not even Safe D
District 6: A Trump+1, R+3 district in the southern suburbs of Fort Worth, this is probably lean D now?
District 3: A Trump+0 district in northeast Dallas suburbs, this is probably likely D now? (very similar to the current TX-32 but much more dem leaning?)
District 39: A district that voted Clinton+1 in the northern Austin suburbs, this must have trended very hard D?
District 37: An interesting Trump+3 district going from east Austin to the San Antonio suburbs along that corridor, I guess it flipped Dem this election?
District 26: A Trump+8 district in the north part of the DFW area I suppose this is similar to the current TX-24, so a tossup?


Also I suppose some Safe R districts in this map have trended hard D and are now competitive like the 24th (much of Collin County), the 12th (much of Denton County, though still likely R) or the 21st (Northern San Antonio suburbs)

Of course on the flip side the South Texas districts must have trended hard R in 2020
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