2020 Texas Redistricting thread
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #950 on: December 06, 2021, 01:52:40 PM »

I like Beto this helps him in his race for Gov
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #951 on: December 06, 2021, 01:55:11 PM »

The chances the map getting overturned, at least in the short term, are close to 0.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #952 on: December 06, 2021, 02:43:37 PM »

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.



Alabama too, please, while we're at it
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Gass3268
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« Reply #953 on: December 06, 2021, 03:04:35 PM »

The chances the map getting overturned, at least in the short term, are close to 0.

Best case would be the Supreme Court requires some edits to be made.
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Southern Reactionary Dem
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« Reply #954 on: December 06, 2021, 03:40:12 PM »

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.



Alabama too, please, while we're at it

Given the composition of the courts, little to nothing is going to change here. The 5th circuit and obviously SCOTUS are a solid R majority.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #955 on: December 06, 2021, 03:55:30 PM »

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.



Alabama too, please, while we're at it

Given the composition of the courts, little to nothing is going to change here. The 5th circuit and obviously SCOTUS are a solid R majority.

Same with the 5th, to be fair. Those are just the two states where I think VRA violations would be easiest to argue
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lfromnj
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« Reply #956 on: December 06, 2021, 04:07:02 PM »

What exactly is the black VRA lawsuit?

They get 2 seats in Houston and 1 in Dallas. Neither of these are overpacks.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #957 on: December 06, 2021, 04:07:57 PM »

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.



Alabama too, please, while we're at it

Given the composition of the courts, little to nothing is going to change here. The 5th circuit and obviously SCOTUS are a solid R majority.

Same with the 5th, to be fair. Those are just the two states where I think VRA violations would be easiest to argue

No its extremely hard to argue for a Gingles based VRA lawsuit in the RGV of all areas.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #958 on: December 06, 2021, 04:10:41 PM »

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.



Alabama too, please, while we're at it

Given the composition of the courts, little to nothing is going to change here. The 5th circuit and obviously SCOTUS are a solid R majority.

Same with the 5th, to be fair. Those are just the two states where I think VRA violations would be easiest to argue

No its extremely hard to argue for a Gingles based VRA lawsuit in the RGV of all areas.

Republicans shored up 2/3 Dems in the RGV and kept the other district at basically the same partisanship. There is 0 argument for Gingles RGV. If the districts were fine in 2010 and have gotten even more Hispanic since then, then why did they suddenly become problematic in 2020?

(Hint: It has a lot to do with certain rightward swings in the RGV that are imperiling Dem dominance there  Cheesy)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #959 on: December 06, 2021, 08:48:27 PM »



Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #960 on: December 06, 2021, 08:50:20 PM »



Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.

Incumbent protection for TX-30 (EBJ is retiring but has a chosen successor)?
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Torie
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« Reply #961 on: December 07, 2021, 08:52:26 AM »

The suit is frivolous.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #962 on: December 07, 2021, 09:13:37 AM »
« Edited: December 07, 2021, 10:18:38 AM by lfromnj »

Quote
"And in El Paso and West Texas, the State eliminated a Latino opportunity district entirely -- reducing the number of districts in which Latinos make up a citizen voting-age population majority from six to five -- by overpopulating and packing majority-Latino districts and under-populating nearby majority-Anglo districts."


 Very serious arguments by esteemed Merrick Garland here.(This is mostly the fact that El Paso grew so little that it lost a district )

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/doj-sues-texas-over-redistricting-saying-the-new-maps-discriminate/ar-AARx15S?ocid=BingNewsSearch
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Southern Reactionary Dem
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« Reply #963 on: December 07, 2021, 02:16:25 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2021, 02:20:29 PM by Southern Reactionary Dem »



Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.

This district will never happen though no matter what the courts decide. TX Rs aren't going to waste Ellis County like that no matter the circumstances. The courts will likely rule in favor of Rs here, but even if they didn't and forced a hispanic majority district in DFW, you can bet that DFW seat will be drawn as some sort of D vote sink mostly within Dallas County while Veasey's district moves to compass the entirety of the Democratic areas in Tarrant County.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #964 on: December 07, 2021, 02:56:19 PM »



Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.

This district will never happen though no matter what the courts decide. TX Rs aren't going to waste Ellis County like that no matter the circumstances. The courts will likely rule in favor of Rs here, but even if they didn't and forced a hispanic majority district in DFW, you can bet that DFW seat will be drawn as some sort of D vote sink mostly within Dallas County while Veasey's district moves to compass the entirety of the Democratic areas in Tarrant County.

Ye ik, mainly just made the map to show 2 compact majority Hispanic districts can be made but the GOP would prolly use a more favorable configuration if this happened
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #965 on: December 07, 2021, 11:49:02 PM »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it値l ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #966 on: December 08, 2021, 03:11:29 AM »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it値l ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres
Here's a recommend.
I completely agree with most of what you posted here.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #967 on: December 08, 2021, 03:29:11 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 03:34:22 AM by North Carolina Conservative »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it値l ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #968 on: December 08, 2021, 07:53:38 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 07:56:42 AM by ProgressiveModerate »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it値l ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?

Def Fort Bend. Seminole may kinda qualify in a way. Also Northern Phoenix and some parts of OC (CA-45ish). Nova. Columbus perhaps?

I would say Raleigh but I feel like that痴 gonna go more the way of Austin or Madison; very white but highly educated and high income.

Minneapolis prolly falls in a sort if in between category.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #969 on: December 08, 2021, 08:57:05 AM »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it値l ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?

Def Fort Bend. Seminole may kinda qualify in a way. Also Northern Phoenix and some parts of OC (CA-45ish). Nova. Columbus perhaps?

I would say Raleigh but I feel like that痴 gonna go more the way of Austin or Madison; very white but highly educated and high income.

Minneapolis prolly falls in a sort if in between category.

NJ-7.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #970 on: December 08, 2021, 08:57:45 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 09:15:18 AM by Roll Roons »

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it’ll ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?

Def Fort Bend. Seminole may kinda qualify in a way. Also Northern Phoenix and some parts of OC (CA-45ish). Nova. Columbus perhaps?

I would say Raleigh but I feel like that’s gonna go more the way of Austin or Madison; very white but highly educated and high income.

Minneapolis prolly falls in a sort if in between category.

NJ-7.

NJ-07 is pretty different from GA-07. It's not experiencing the same explosive growth and large-scale demographic turnover as the latter. Bear in mind that unlike Gwinnett County, downballot Republicans still tend to do very well there, which indicates to me that it's more due to college-educated whites who changed their voting habits as a reaction to Trump.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #971 on: December 08, 2021, 10:13:21 AM »

I suppose you're right, Somerset County isn't growing as quickly as I thought.
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patzer
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« Reply #972 on: December 08, 2021, 10:35:03 AM »

Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.
How about this?


25th = 45% Hispanic, 27% white, 23% black (plurality Hispanic)
30th = 46% black, 30% Hispanic, 18% white (plurality black)
32nd = 50% Hispanic, 28% white, 18% black (majority Hispanic)
33rd = 54% Hispanic, 26% white, 14% black (majority Hispanic)
3rd = 42% white, 32% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 12% black (could become Asian-plurality soon)
5th = 51% white, 20% Hispanic, 16% black, 12% Asian (the only white-majority blue district)

Partisan data is 2020 presidential
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #973 on: December 08, 2021, 11:34:39 AM »

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lfromnj
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« Reply #974 on: December 08, 2021, 01:31:20 PM »

Oh rereading the lawsuit articles it seems TX 15th was not mentioned. So at least they aren't dumb enough to bring a Gingles case for a district which only falls when Hispanics vote atleast 40% R.
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