2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm honestly relieved this is the map we got. It's still a gerrymander, of course, but it's not one that tries to undo the 2018 gains - in fact it consolidates them, and even adds one Dem seat on top of that. If the 2020 trends with Hispanics continue, that's very worrying down South, of course, but I have to hope Dems will be able to keep the 3 South Texas seats, which would make the map 14-24. Not too bad for a still GOP-leaning swing state.

Ye fortunately most of Rs gerrymander is just cancelling out their own geography issues.

And it's not like the work they did to shore up the seats are guaranteed to hold against potential future trends anyway.

[Smash255]

I'm honestly relieved this is the map we got. It's still a gerrymander, of course, but it's not one that tries to undo the 2018 gains - in fact it consolidates them, and even adds one Dem seat on top of that. If the 2020 trends with Hispanics continue, that's very worrying down South, of course, but I have to hope Dems will be able to keep the 3 South Texas seats, which would make the map 14-24. Not too bad for a still GOP-leaning swing state.

It would have been extremely difficult for the GOP to try and undo the 2018 gains the Democrats had without putting their own members in danger.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

[Roll Roons]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

It's probably in the top five, but I think the most Democratic would either be PA-03 (West Philly/Center City) or CA-13 (Oakland and Berkeley).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

Probably not...hard to beat out CDs centered on the Bronx. But it definitely is in good contention for the title of most Democratic district in the South.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

Probably not...hard to beat out CDs centered on the Bronx. But it definitely is in good contention for the title of most Democratic district in the South.

Yea I see that now. I was misinterpreting 538’s eating and reading them like cook PVI

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

Probably not...hard to beat out CDs centered on the Bronx. But it definitely is in good contention for the title of most Democratic district in the South.

Yea I see that now. I was misinterpreting 538’s eating and reading them like cook PVI

https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2021-10-01/new-austin-congressional-district-would-help-protect-gop-incumbents/
Found this article by chance. It's only 73.8% Biden? There are districts more Dem than that in Texas (TX-30, for instance) and there are even more Dem seats in the South (Georgia-5).

[lfromnj]

It's the most Democratic seat in TX by raw net votes.

[DrScholl]

The map definitely could have been worst. Even with redistricting Republicans are running out of places to expanding urban and suburban districts.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

Probably not...hard to beat out CDs centered on the Bronx. But it definitely is in good contention for the title of most Democratic district in the South.

Yea I see that now. I was misinterpreting 538’s eating and reading them like cook PVI

https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2021-10-01/new-austin-congressional-district-would-help-protect-gop-incumbents/
Found this article by chance. It's only 73.8% Biden? There are districts more Dem than that in Texas (TX-30, for instance) and there are even more Dem seats in the South (Georgia-5).

ya see whay had happened was I saw on 538 had it as "D+44" and I was thinkin in PVI and was like"whoa" cause that is just about the highest you can get in PVI. Turnsout I was just bad at comprehension

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

Probably not...hard to beat out CDs centered on the Bronx. But it definitely is in good contention for the title of most Democratic district in the South.

Yea I see that now. I was misinterpreting 538’s eating and reading them like cook PVI

https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2021-10-01/new-austin-congressional-district-would-help-protect-gop-incumbents/
Found this article by chance. It's only 73.8% Biden? There are districts more Dem than that in Texas (TX-30, for instance) and there are even more Dem seats in the South (Georgia-5).

ya see whay had happened was I saw on 538 had it as "D+44" and I was thinkin in PVI and was like"whoa" cause that is just about the highest you can get in PVI. Turnsout I was just bad at comprehension

Well, we all make mistakes.
In any case, it seems clear that TX-37 is going to be among to be a very important place for any future Dem statewide win, as it represents a high-turnout area that Ds need the vote margin from.

[patzer]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

[jimrtex]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

I expect the Texas House to flip this decade, buoyed by the county-split rules when drawing House districts. But I would be more surprised if both the Texas Senate and Governor flip. Just seems too good to be true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

I expect the Texas House to flip this decade, buoyed by the county-split rules when drawing House districts. But I would be more surprised if both the Texas Senate and Governor flip. Just seems too good to be true.

If TX has became D enough that the State Senate has flipped, the governorship has very likely flipped also, given the quality of the GOP lines.
But if TX has became a persistently 2-3% Dem margin state by the mid-2020s, Ds could pretty easily take the governorship if it is open and might flip it even if it isn't - given the polarization that has been increasing on gubernatorial level.
The key word is 'if'. I think 2020 demonstrated TX was still fundamentally a right-leaning state, and so while we might reach 2-3% in the late 2020s, it'd be very hard to do it in mid-2020s.
The single biggest issue with a reverse-2003 mid-decade redistricting is that Ds are probably quite unlikely to take the governorship in 2026 at the moment (based off best of knowledge) and so we'd have to wait until 2030. In which case, it is too late. No use in mid-decade redistricting after the 2030 election cycle. Just focus your energies on gerrymandering the state post-2030.
Note that all this assumes the state continues to trend strongly, strongly Democratic, and I can't say in good faith that this is certain, though I'd be equally hard-pressed to see it shifting back to the GOP.

[Tintrlvr]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

I expect the Texas House to flip this decade, buoyed by the county-split rules when drawing House districts. But I would be more surprised if both the Texas Senate and Governor flip. Just seems too good to be true.

The Senate almost certainly will be the last to flip, very unlikely to happen before the 2031 redistricting. My guess is that the Democrats control the House and the Governor's mansion (plus some other line offices, such as LG) after 2030, and that's enough to get a non-gerrymandered map passed (the Republicans might be smart and implement a commission before then; otherwise it seems very possible the Democrats could actually control redistricting in 2031 even without the Senate given the way it works in Texas and pass a Democratic gerrymander), resulting in a flip of the Senate in 2032 when all seats are up for reelection as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

I expect the Texas House to flip this decade, buoyed by the county-split rules when drawing House districts. But I would be more surprised if both the Texas Senate and Governor flip. Just seems too good to be true.

The Senate almost certainly will be the last to flip, very unlikely to happen before the 2031 redistricting. My guess is that the Democrats control the House and the Governor's mansion (plus some other line offices, such as LG) after 2030, and that's enough to get a non-gerrymandered map passed, resulting in a flip of the Senate in 2032 when all seats are up for reelection as well.

If we really want a 2003 redux, we could just have a court map post-2032, that reflects the GOP lines but adds two new seats, and then Ds, taking a trifecta in 2032, pass a gerrymander in 2033. If that occured that aligns perfectly with the chronology of what led to the 2003 redistricting, even including the previous hackish gerrymander that courts largely preserve (TX's congressional map was wildly gerrymandered in the Ds favor during the 1990s).
One (to some extent quite valid) complaint that Rs had at the time was that Rs had basically no avenue to winning a majority of the House delegation despite winning a majority of votes time and time again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump "only" won the majority of seats 85-65. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

[Roll Roons]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

[Roll Roons]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

Sure. But I shudder to think about how unhinged Trump would have been in a second term.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump "only" won the majority of seats 85-65. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Yeah, I would be surprised if the State House doesn't have a D majority at any point this decade.
How did the median district in the State House vote?

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

Sure. But I shudder to think about how unhinged Trump would have been in a second term.

If Dems held the House in 2020, the damage would have been mitigated.  Now there is a decent chance that he (or another Republican in 2028) comes back even more powerful than he was from 2017-2020.

[BoiseBoy]

DOJ is suing Texas over its maps alleging that they violate Section 2 of the VRA.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1467927358019710977?s=20