2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Idaho Conservative]

Is a 28R-11D map possible? This means no gains from 2018, as well as three new Republican seats.

In theory, not in practice.  An Austin vote sink is desperately needed, 32 and 7 should be packed too.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d6438be-a4b7-43c4-8e8f-b3e2ce879b33
I made 28-11, but so ugly

[Frodo]

Does anyone see Texas eventually accumulating as many electoral college votes as California currently has (55)?  Texas currently stands at 38.     

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone see Texas eventually accumulating as many electoral college votes as California currently has (55)?  Texas currently stands at 38.     

Probably not, but I could see both states being tied at say 47 after the 2040 census.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone see Texas eventually accumulating as many electoral college votes as California currently has (55)?  Texas currently stands at 38.     

Nah. I think at a fundamental level, California is a more desirable place for commerce and livability than Texas. The only reason TX has grown at our expense is because we've basically criminalized housing production and they haven't. California's "natural population" (ie. how many people it would have if zoning laws were even semi-rational) is probably upwards of 70 million. Perhaps I'm too optimistic, but I think CA will eventually deal with this housing shortfall and we'll be back to the boom of the late 20th century. If prices were comparable, would many people really choose Cypress and Round Rock over Newport Beach and Novato?

[dpmapper]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

[dpmapper]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

Did California's brownouts and water rationing stop after the 20th century, or get worse?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

Did California's brownouts and water rationing stop after the 20th century, or get worse?

Basically stop, although people did minimize water use during the most recent drought. But if push comes to shove, desal and water diversion from out of state are both possible.

[Sol]

Have been playing around with Texas maps again. Did you know it's possible to draw four fajita strips now? Hard to see why it wouldn't be required.



link

[lfromnj]

you mean with or without a packed court?

Lol with a 6-3 court. The 5th circuit is pretty much mostly R appointees too and I assume all the district courts are too. They really will not believe that those are compact districts for the sake of the Gingles test.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have been playing around with Texas maps again. Did you know it's possible to draw four fajita strips now? Hard to see why it wouldn't be required.



link

This looks like a nice set of fajitas.

[Sol]

you mean with or without a packed court?

Lol with a 6-3 court. The 5th circuit is pretty much mostly R appointees too and I assume all the district courts are too. They really will not believe that those are compact districts for the sake of the Gingles test.

Well in fairness there's no guarantee that the current majority will last through 2030--a map without fajitas might be upheld by the evil 6 in 2021 but maybe not so in 2028, and that's not including court packing.

In any case, unless I say otherwise, I try to draw fair maps that color in the lines of the VRA and fair districting principles--and again those districts are pretty easy to draw. In an ideal world where America isn't racially polarized I'd be opposed to fajitas but rn they're necessary to avoid 1 or 2 95% Latino packs and then safe R seats in south Texas.

[dpmapper]

But doesn't this get rid of the Hispanic district straddling San Antonio and Austin?  So it's not a net gain in Hispanic opportunities. 

[Sol]

But doesn't this get rid of the Hispanic district straddling San Antonio and Austin?  So it's not a net gain in Hispanic opportunities. 

Good point. I can probably remove some Latinos from the red district though, as well as further unpack yellow.

[Stuart98]

But doesn't this get rid of the Hispanic district straddling San Antonio and Austin?  So it's not a net gain in Hispanic opportunities. 

This particular map does, but it's definitely possible to keep the four fajita set-up here while preserving something like the old 35th and having a San Antonio centered Hispanic majority district.

[Sol]

Here you go.

[Former President tack50]

Don't all thr fajita maps break the "communities of interest" criteria by their own design?

That map for example is especially ugly

[Sol]

Don't all thr fajita maps break the "communities of interest" criteria by their own design?

That map for example is especially ugly

They break communities of interest but the VRA and minority protection generally is more important that communities of interest.

Plus I suppose there's an argument (not sure if I agree) that in some areas ethnicity is a more important community than strict geography.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is Texas likelier to have 39 seats or 38?

[Stuart98]

Is Texas likelier to have 39 seats or 38?

My estimate a couple days ago suggests that Texas is more likely to have 39 seats, with seat #39 being the 432nd seat apportioned.

430. CA-52
431. IL-17
432. TX-39
433. MT-02
434. FL-29
435. AL-07
____
436. NY-26
437. MN-08
438. OH-16
439. CA-53
440. RI-02
441. ID-03

[Sol]

Is Texas likelier to have 39 seats or 38?

My estimate a couple days ago suggests that Texas is more likely to have 39 seats, with seat #39 being the 432nd seat apportioned.

430. CA-52
431. IL-17
432. TX-39
433. MT-02
434. FL-29
435. AL-07
____
436. NY-26
437. MN-08
438. OH-16
439. CA-53
440. RI-02
441. ID-02

Do you mean ID-03?

[Stuart98]

Is Texas likelier to have 39 seats or 38?

My estimate a couple days ago suggests that Texas is more likely to have 39 seats, with seat #39 being the 432nd seat apportioned.

430. CA-52
431. IL-17
432. TX-39
433. MT-02
434. FL-29
435. AL-07
____
436. NY-26
437. MN-08
438. OH-16
439. CA-53
440. RI-02
441. ID-02

Do you mean ID-03?

Whoops, right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TX map I made.
Was designed to be non-partisan while generally addhewing to least change when realistic and desirable. This is not a fair map as it was not designed to be proportional to the state. As such, due mostly to my general desire to have just one district crossing out of a county when possible, the map has a slight Dem lean relative to the state.
The new districts are TX-37 (Hispanic majority in total pop, Dallas County), TX-38 (areas between San Antonio and Austin), and TX-39 (fast-growing DFW exurbs). Harris County also gains about at least half a seat as TX-36 is now contained within it, and TX-17 is about 40% within it.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8f8ea43-5428-45c0-aadb-b36ada186ab9

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5af8e71b-51ba-498e-a050-1a0bbc1337a6

Focused on a Texas fair map for fun, my main issue with my map is it does Triple split Montgomery county although the way I did it helps Democrats a touch actually because I was trying to create 2 reasonable Hispanic influence seats in the Houston area.

Overall still not that many full Hispanic districts although the Midland/Ector/ RGV district can be considered one even if its Likely to Safe R.  

Overall for Clinton districts


4 in Dallas
6 in Houston
2 in Austin
2 in SA
4 in El Paso/RGV out of 39 total so 18/39

If I had to guess Beto picked up  2 Dallas districts and came close to the West Austin suburban/exurban district which has a few rural counties  in it because I didn't want to put Killeen in it. Also probably came very close to the Denton county district which is just denton -100k of the reddest parts.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is Texas likelier to have 39 seats or 38?

My estimate a couple days ago suggests that Texas is more likely to have 39 seats, with seat #39 being the 432nd seat apportioned.

430. CA-52
431. IL-17
432. TX-39
433. MT-02
434. FL-29
435. AL-07
____
436. NY-26
437. MN-08
438. OH-16
439. CA-53
440. RI-02
441. ID-03

Martha Robys gonna regret retiring LOL