2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer also has an absurd amount of money banked.

The thing about Gottheimer is that in a lot of ways he does suit his district---a lot of Bergen County suburbanites are very well-off (especially by national standards if not necessarily North Jersey suburbia standards) and only vote for the Democratic party because of social liberalism and a contempt for Trump.

It makes more sense logistically to sacrifice Malinowski and shore up Gottheimer and the other Dems

[LabourJersey]

I don't get why you all use the word "Suburb" so much in this thread.

"Suburban New Jersey" is redundant.

There's a lot of genuine urban areas in New Jersey: Newark, Hoboken, Jersey City, Paterson. Plus a bunch of dense suburbs that might feel urban to people from other parts of the country (my hometown had a density of 5500 people per square mile--does everyone think of that as suburban?)

On the flip side, there's parts of South Jersey in the Pine Barrens and parts of Sussex & Warren counties that are quite rural

[LabourJersey]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

Ciatterelli was a very credible candidate too...

[LabourJersey]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

[LabourJersey]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

This is such a wildly stupid idea.