2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[kwabbit]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

Difference is that these districts are not trending R the way OK-05 and SC-01 were trending D.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

Difference is that these districts are not trending R the way OK-05 and SC-01 were trending D.

Well, NM-02, NY-11, and NY-22 are probably better examples here.

[Nyvin]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

That's going to be very hard to do. The 7th is going to have to be a double-digit Trump seat, which means it can't have that tail into Westfield for Kean that Wasserman is proposing, and probably stay out of Somerset for the most part. The 8th, 9th, 10th, and 12th are going to all have to be heavily unpacked.

Unlike IL, where there are some safe D suburban seats that existed beforehand, all of the Safe D districts in North Jersey are heavily urbanized. If NJ-10 wants to keep being  the "black" district or NJ-8.the "hispanic" one, there's not a lot of places it can afford to drop. A retirement from an older member of the delegation, like Pascrell, Pallone, or Watson Coleman, would just allow NJ to cut that district and make it easier to retain all their incumbents.

[kwabbit]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

[😥]

Is it possible to Democrats to do 9-3 map by throwing away Gottheimer and making Malinowski safe?

[Nyvin]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

The difference between Texas and NJ is that Texas can sacrifice the swing seats they already lost to shore up the ones they still have, and there are several 70%+ R seats to unpack as well. NJ has only three solid D seats in the north part of the state, two of which are minority opportunity seats and all of which are very urban in character. And also only 2 Republican seats to turn into sinks.

[Brittain33]

Is it possible to Democrats to do 9-3 map by throwing away Gottheimer and making Malinowski safe?

I don't see how. You're going to end up with a Bergen-based district that Gottheimer can represent.

[Devils30]

The tiebreaker is very Dem friendly. You can draw a 10-2 with all seats Biden +12 or more quite easily. I would not give up on a D trending area like NJ-7.

[ChineseConservative]

Damm just found out Malinowski was a Rhodes Scholar. What a shame.

[Roll Roons]

Damm just found out Malinowski was a Rhodes Scholar. What a shame.

So was David Vitter. It doesn't mean someone is a good person or politician.

[kwabbit]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

I don't know if this is a pattern that would hold into the future, but NJ House Republicans had huge overperformances. Like Katko-esque. Incumbency isn't some gigantic boost anymore, but I'm just saying drawing a Biden +8 district in Morris or something might lead to a flip in 2022 and then make it very difficult to dislodge the incumbent. But if the seat didn't flip in the first place this wouldn't have been a problem.

[Devils30]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

I don't know if this is a pattern that would hold into the future, but NJ House Republicans had huge overperformances. Like Katko-esque. Incumbency isn't some gigantic boost anymore, but I'm just saying drawing a Biden +8 district in Morris or something might lead to a flip in 2022 and then make it very difficult to dislodge the incumbent. But if the seat didn't flip in the first place this wouldn't have been a problem.

Yep, but Dems should want the type of map they they can do the best in with a 2012 type of election (even popular vote in the House). I would try to go 10-2 by unpacking the 12th and putting Warren, Hunterdon with Mercer and part of Middlesex. Then try to move 7 a bit east (while being Somerset centric, part of southern Morris). Somerset is no longer a swing county in an even year.

[GALeftist]

Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The fact that after seeing a popular Democratic incumbent barely win reelection by 2-3 points, people seem to unironically think drawing a 10-2 map wouldn't massively blow up in Democrats' face is. Truly Atlas wisdom and foresight at its finest.

[CookieDamage]

Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

A south Jersey Dem district is possible but it won't be anything more than like D+3 or so, unless you really hack up the Camden district and shift it northwards, which might be possible. Even then, there's no way to draw a south jersey Dem +10 or whatever district without giving Norcross significantly more republican territory.



Something like this could work in South Jersey. NJ-1 goes from a roughly 60-40 to a 58-42 seat. NJ-2 goes from a Trump-Trump seat to one Clinton won 52-44. NJ-3 is shored up for Kim, making it a 55-40 Dem seat as well as making it an Asian opportunity district. NJ-4 is of course made to be even more of a pack.

NJ-2, however, still might not be Dem enough to survive a bad midterm in 2022, and will probably be out of reach for Dems for the time being by the end of the decade.

[Tintrlvr]

Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

A south Jersey Dem district is possible but it won't be anything more than like D+3 or so, unless you really hack up the Camden district and shift it northwards, which might be possible. Even then, there's no way to draw a south jersey Dem +10 or whatever district without giving Norcross significantly more republican territory.



Something like this could work in South Jersey. NJ-1 goes from a roughly 60-40 to a 58-42 seat. NJ-2 goes from a Trump-Trump seat to one Clinton won 52-44. NJ-3 is shored up for Kim, making it a 55-40 Dem seat as well as making it an Asian opportunity district. NJ-4 is of course made to be even more of a pack.

NJ-2, however, still might not be Dem enough to survive a bad midterm in 2022, and will probably be out of reach for Dems for the time being by the end of the decade.

If you really want to get rid of Van Drew, you'll have to put Cape May County in a Republican sink; otherwise he'll just come over the top there and win. Of course, getting Cape May County out without losing Atlantic City is an added challenge that is going to require water connectivity.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NJ light R gerry I came up with.

It if weren't for the 11th this map would be a relatively clean least change map.

Chances R the Dem tiebreaker would never vote for this though unless some sort of deal was made (you never know)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried to make a non-partisan state legislature map, avoiding municipal splits and county splits as much as is feasible, while still having compact districts.
Of 565 municipalities in the state, only four are split: Newark, Jersey City, Clifton, and West New York. The former two are unavoidable due to population, while the latter two are forced by county nesting.

This is what I got.
County nestings:
Cumberland+Cape May 1
Salem+Gloucester+Camden 4
Burlington+Atlantic+Ocean 6
Monmouth+Middlesex+Union 9
Mercer+Somerset+Morris+Sussex 6
Warren+Hunterdon 1
Essex+Passaic 6
Bergen 4
Hudson 3
https://davesredistricting.org/join/d7305d78-fc39-4f4e-a10b-038b7fadad1c
Menendez won 25 of these seats. Murphy '17 won 29 of them. Clinton won 29. Not sure about Murphy '21 or Biden.
Btw I've added the edited blank map I made to the Gallery. Anyone is free to use it.

[CookieDamage]

Possible 10-2 map with two GOP vote sinks. There are two hispanic opportunity districts (Paterson-Hackensack; Union City-Newark-WNY) and one black near-majority district (Newark-Jersey City).

There is a Northwest GOP vote sink. Gottheimer is technically in this district but could run in the Morris-centered district, but will likely face a primary with Mikie Sherrill.

Bonnie Watson Coleman and Tom Malinowksi have been put in a single district. I think BWC would actually win this primary and easily the general.

I gave Andy Kim Trenton and Edison.

The Camden district now includes lots of red turf (Cape May) but I made up for it by giving Norcross Willingboro and Atlantic City.

The South Jersey district now has a lot more blue turf and less red turf. I gave Van Drew Sicklerville, Haddon, Collingswood, and parts of Cherry Hill.  It'll be a 55-42 district, which may flip Dem even in a bad year for Dems.

There's a district that includes inland Monmouth county as well as Plainfield, Hillside, and Union making it a 55-41 Clinton district. I don't think there's anyone who lives in this district, so either a new Dem runs or Malinowski or someone else runs here.

I gave Pallone Elizabeth, Rahway, and Roselle, shoring him up and making it less likely this district flips in 2022.

[Stuart98]

Getting rid of JVD and Malinowski simultaneously seems to be the play for a 10-2. Creative way of accomplishing that. Is there a way of shoring up that lean D seat?

[CookieDamage]

Getting rid of JVD and Malinowski simultaneously seems to be the play for a 10-2. Creative way of accomplishing that. Is there a way of shoring up that lean D seat?

I feel like that North Jersey Lean D seat was close to a Biden +15 seat. But if you wanted to shore it up regardless, you can take bits and pieces of remaining Newark suburbs.