Why Sarah Palin was not a bad VP pick as far as electibility

[chibul]

First I want to start with a disclaimer. If John McCain were president and he died in office and Palin was sworn in ... God Help Us.

For years I thought Sarah Palin was the worst VP pick in the history of presidential elections but after the huge upset of Donald Trump in 2016 I have begun to reconsider this opinion.

In 2008 George W Bush's approval rating was terrible and republicans were furious at their elected leaders. I think republicans had lost faith in their elected officials that year and they needed an outsider like Sarah Palin to get them to turn out in large numbers.

This is anecdotal but I remember republicans that I spoke with at the time were far more excited about Sarah Palin than John McCain. I also think that Sarah Palin rally's were bringing more people than John McCain rally's.

Obviously they didn't win but I think if you had another boring republican US senator or congressman as VP, they would have lost the popular vote by double digits. I think the evangelicals were more excited to vote for Palin than McCain.

I think Donald Trump has fine tuned the Sarah Palin type politician and made it more main stream but I look at Sarah Palin as the prototype. The finished product flipped some states that somebody would have thought were not possible to flip.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Basically what you're saying is that Sarah Palin would have been a good pick if she weren't Sarah Palin.

And look, I'm not meaning to slag you or anything, because I think I know what you mean, and I agree. There was the potential for this choice to be a highly successful moonshot. The first few days of Palin were pretty incredible to behold. If that had been sustainable (in other words, if Sarah Palin had not been a total lightweight or batsh-t crazy), we are looking at a different ballgame for 2008. Would have been interesting as hell, but that Sarah Palin just doesn't exist.

So for every shard of energy and excitement, she brought at least an equal amount of distrust and incredulity. Her ineptitude makes her a bad pick in hindsight, but I do actually commend McCain for making a play to try and shake things up, especially because there was at least a chance it could have worked, given what they knew at the time. Should they have known more? Maybe. But what difference, at this point, does it make?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If McCain wanted someone would could appeal to religious right and populists why not just choose Mike Huckabee

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You have to remember at the time that the base was enraged at Bush and McCain over the immigration issue. That McCain ended up the nominee was a combination of luck, coordination with other candidates (who willingly became McCain agents at certain points), the inability of Huckabee to appeal beyond his narrow base and Romney to appeal beyond his, and rather favorable media coverage around a primary that was rather dominated by foreign policy related issues. McCain also had moderates in Governor's mansions in both Florida (Charlie Crist) and California (Arnold) to provide critical endorsements when it mattered most, while Romney was reduced to campaigning with two defeated Conservative Senators, Jim Talent and Rick Santorum.

In fact you might say there were a lot of similarities with McCain's recovery and Biden's. Both faced off against opponents who had difficulty reaching beyond their niche, both faced a complete collapse of their campaign, and both had a state that they dug in their heels and used to spring board a recovery (For McCain it was NH and for Biden it was SC).

For McCain though, this left a candidate that was at odds with its own base on energy/environment, immigration and a host of other issues. There was also a false belief circulating that McCain was pro-choice, which led to an embarrassment when an advertising pitch by a former Hillary supporter to try and peel of some votes, mistakenly referred to McCain as "he's even pro-choice". This falsehood came about from the 2000 campaign when McCain derided the Christian Right as "agents of intolerance".

McCain also lost the favorable media coverage that had glide pathed him to the nomination, the minute it became clear he was running against Obama. Conservatives also were kind of hoping he would fail because they preferred what the GOP would become in opposition to Obama than what it would be defined by under a McCain Presidency, against a backdrop of a Democratic Congress. A third GOP term in that environment would have devastated the GOP down ballot.


By late July this became apparent and McCain's campaign began to fix its many problems. McCain "changed course" (after deriding Mittens as a flip flopper) on energy and endorsed offshore drilling when oil prices shot up $150 a barrel (unthinkable now) and $4 a gallon. He also showed up along with Obama to the Rick Warren summit and while Obama came off as professorial and aloof, McCain went second and hit out of the park. Warren asked him about when life begins and McCain looked dead in the camera and said decisively, "At the moment of conception". The effect this had on evangelical support was like night and day at that point.

Obama stumbled at this point on the energy issue and following Obama's European tour, McCain painted him as out of touch and started distributing tire gauges to contrast Obama's position with McCain's "change of course for the sake of the country". While the economy was weak and the Dow was off of its late 2007 highs, the sense that things were about to collapse was not yet clear to most people. The rapid rise in gas prices and the squeeze this put on people, made that issue rise in importance and McCain successfully capitalized on that and used that along with the clarity of the Warren summit to rally the base and dent Obama's position.

It wasn't enough, Obama still led the Electoral college and popular vote and some kind of game changer was needed. A lot of us in pro-Romney land wanted Romney to be the nominee. In the end this was a bad choice because while Palin may have been off putting to some, I don't think she lost many people that backed Romney (though Trump certainly did so, these people weren't at that point yet), but Palin definitely was popular among Huckabee and most (at first) Romney supporters.

Palin had a lot going for her. Throughout 2006, Alaska was considered to be a goner for Republicans. Governor Frank Murkowski (Lisa's father) was horrendously unpopular (18% approval ratings) and he was facing a former Governor. Palin defeated Murkowski in the primary and managed to salvage that election winning by ten points.

Palin came in as an outsider and because she was not part of the corrupt Stevens-Murkowski-Young establishment that was bought off by big oil, Palin took them on. She was rivaling Joe Manchin as one of the most popular Governor's in the country at around 80%. Because of her opposition to corruption and pay to play politics, McCain thought she fit nicely with his fiscal conservative/gov't reformer theme. At the same time she was also well position to be very popular with the portions of the base most concerned about McCain, the sort of populist, non-college white, religious conservatives that mostly supported Huckabee and love Donald Trump today.

McCain picked Palin, the convention got wrecked by the Hurricane but they managed to salvage it somewhat and by the end of the month, beginning of September McCain had finally caught up to Obama. They had secured AK, ND, SD, MT, IN and NC (all six were considered vulnerable in the summer as reach states for Obama, and two of them ended up being lost to Obama in the end with MT being razor thing), had retaken the leads in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Nevada and for a brief moment had a single poll with him leading in New Mexico (but no polling average had him ahead there). So if you count that one poll, for a brief moment McCain had a path to the EC majority, just barely.

Then it all fell apart. Palin began to demonstrate her ineptitude and then Lehman Brother's collapsed, triggering the Global Financial Crisis.

[Redban]

The best description for the Sarah Palin pick is Hail Mary -  a long forward pass that's thrown into or near the end zone as a last-ditch attempt to score as time runs out.

It was obvious that McCain, or any republican, wasn’t going to win the presidency. Obama was too good of a candidate, and Bush was America’s Most Hated Person. Regular folks and pundits alike saw the outcome as a foregone conclusion.  Don’t think McCain’s people didn’t know the odds. He took a chance with a young, beautiful, yet untested Palin, thinking she might grab the headlines, win people’s hearts, and push him to the Presidency.

And there were some successes. Palin’s speech drew high ratings, she got more media attention than Obama, and she helped shore up some conservatives who were skeptical of McCain (he had a long history of working with the Dems on immigration, torture, and other issues).

People try too hard to blame McCain’s loss on Palin. Even if he had picked Romney, Pawlenty, Lieberman, or Huckabee, he would’ve lost just the same.

[Redban]

If McCain wanted someone would could appeal to religious right and populists why not just choose Mike Huckabee

But he didn’t need someone to just shore up the religious or conservative base. McCain’s moderate / left-wing past was only one part of the equation.

The other issue is that Obama was a wickedly good  candidate who was motivating the Dems, Independents, and moderate Republicans. McCain needed someone who could outdraw Obama and get people talking about Country First instead of Change.

Plus, Bush’s approval ratings were pivotal to the election. Palin was an outsider; Huckabee was part of the establishment. To get away from Bush’s shadow, Palin made more sense.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If McCain wanted someone would could appeal to religious right and populists why not just choose Mike Huckabee

But he didn’t need someone to just shore up the religious or conservative base. McCain’s moderate / left-wing past was only one part of the equation.

The other issue is that Obama was a wickedly good  candidate who was motivating the Dems, Independents, and moderate Republicans. McCain needed someone who could outdraw Obama and get people talking about Country First instead of Change.

Plus, Bush’s approval ratings were pivotal to the election. Palin was an outsider; Huckabee was part of the establishment. To get away from Bush’s shadow, Palin made more sense.

Huckabee was not part of the establishment. In fact, McCain was the only DC insider in the primary contest among major contenders. Rudy, Huck, Mittens and Fred were all outside of Washington though Fred was a former Senator he had left office in 2003. Huckabee had even criticized Bush for having a bunker mentality on Iraq, which enraged Romney supporters at the no end. I know this because I was close with a group of Romney activists at the time. Ultimately, he couldn't pick Huckabee for that reason, Huckabee would enrage Romney supporters to no end and he would harm McCain's appeal to moderates, especially those outside the South.

[HAnnA MArin County]

If McCain wanted someone would could appeal to religious right and populists why not just choose Mike Huckabee

Not sure how accurate it is, but in that HBO book/movie Game Change, John McCain's advisers tell him that he's losing women by ~20 points and how if he doesn't win them by at least five points that he will lose the election, and so he decides to pick a woman. Unlike Democrats, though, Republicans do not seem to care about voting for candidates solely because of the candidate's race, gender, religion, etc. Most of the women who want a woman President aren't going to be voting Republican in the first place anyway. It's also possible that he did this to try to win over some disaffected Hillary primary voters.

Yes, Sarah Palin excited the base who long had their reservations about McCain but as the campaign went on, that energy and enthusiasm slowly began to evaporate when she revealed herself to be a know-nothing nincompoop via the infamous Katie Couric interviews and her "going rogue" moment once she decided to put her own future political ambitions ahead of trying to help McCain get elected and morphed into Michele Bachmann via incendiary comments like Obama palling around with terrorists and "real America" comments.

[darklordoftech]

McCain's advisers tell him that he's losing women by ~20 points

Why was he so unpopular with women?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

McCain's advisers tell him that he's losing women by ~20 points

Why was he so unpopular with women?

Women, aren't fond of wars and economic turmoil/recession, more so then men on the former.

[brucejoel99]

Basically what you're saying is that Sarah Palin would have been a good pick if she weren't Sarah Palin.

And look, I'm not meaning to slag you or anything, because I think I know what you mean, and I agree. There was the potential for this choice to be a highly successful moonshot. The first few days of Palin were pretty incredible to behold. If that had been sustainable (in other words, if Sarah Palin had not been a total lightweight or batsh-t crazy), we are looking at a different ballgame for 2008. Would have been interesting as hell, but that Sarah Palin just doesn't exist.

So for every shard of energy and excitement, she brought at least an equal amount of distrust and incredulity. Her ineptitude makes her a bad pick in hindsight, but I do actually commend McCain for making a play to try and shake things up, especially because there was at least a chance it could have worked, given what they knew at the time. Should they have known more? Maybe. But what difference, at this point, does it make?

Yeah, this is basically what McCain's analyst friend meant by that famous line in saying why Palin was chosen: big risk, big reward (of course, they didn't know at that time - due to the shoddy vetting - that she was riddled with problems).

[chibul]

Basically what you're saying is that Sarah Palin would have been a good pick if she weren't Sarah Palin.

And look, I'm not meaning to slag you or anything, because I think I know what you mean, and I agree. There was the potential for this choice to be a highly successful moonshot. The first few days of Palin were pretty incredible to behold. If that had been sustainable (in other words, if Sarah Palin had not been a total lightweight or batsh-t crazy), we are looking at a different ballgame for 2008. Would have been interesting as hell, but that Sarah Palin just doesn't exist.

So for every shard of energy and excitement, she brought at least an equal amount of distrust and incredulity. Her ineptitude makes her a bad pick in hindsight, but I do actually commend McCain for making a play to try and shake things up, especially because there was at least a chance it could have worked, given what they knew at the time. Should they have known more? Maybe. But what difference, at this point, does it make?

You are kind of understanding me. I think Sarah Palin saved McCain from a far bigger landslide. Sarah Palin was a lot more in line with where the republican party was headed than John McCain was. I think Sarah Palin was the future of the republican party and John McCain was the past.

If you had Condalizza Rice or even somebody like Rob Portman or a boring senator like Lamar Alexander, it would have been a far worse slaughter.

A lot of people think Nikki Haley is going to be the next republican president. I think Nikki Haley would get destroyed in a republican primary because she's your resume candidate. The first woman to win a republican primary is going to be Sarah Palin 2.0 or Michelle Bachman 2.0.