2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Oryxslayer]

I updated my Alabama map earlier for 2018 pop totals.



Changes since:

AL-02: R+18.9 -> R+18.8
AL03: R+28.3 -> R+28.8
AL05: R+25.3 -> R+25

[Del Tachi]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::93720128-bfca-4c99-a1f3-9b2fbe84604a

My take on the likeliest 2021 map.  No arm into Mobile.  Roby gets the chop, and Rogers inherits an unsightly Gadsden-to-Dothan district (he keeps his base around Anniston/Gadsden, though).  Since a Dixiecrat revival is now an impossibility, AL Republicans can afford to keep the HSV metro and NW-AL whole.  Sewell's district is 61% Black by 2018 population and while her district sheds some D precincts around Birmingham to keep population equal once Roby's district getting nixed, Aderholt and Palmer split the difference to keep their PVIs both around R+25.

[lfromnj]

Again Mobile +Baldwin is almost 3/4 of a district there is 0 reason to split it up with an arm to reach into to gerrymander for Democrats

[Skill and Chance]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::93720128-bfca-4c99-a1f3-9b2fbe84604a

My take on the likeliest 2021 map.  Roby gets the chop, and Rogers inherits an unsightly Gadsden-to-Dothan district.  Since a Dixiecrat revival is now an impossibility, AL Republicans can sleep well keeping NWAL whole, as well.  Sewell's district is 61% Black by 2018 population and while her district sheds some D precincts around Birmingham due to expansion in the Black Belt, the JeffCo districts are split between Aderholt and Palmer to keep them both safe.

Hmmm... going by the 2017 and 2018 results it seems likely Madison County will eventually flip with the concentration of postgrads living there and the surrounding counties are also accumulating more D votes, though they were near unanimous R before.  I doubt that would be enough to flip the northern district anytime soon, but who knows?

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::93720128-bfca-4c99-a1f3-9b2fbe84604a

My take on the likeliest 2021 map.  Roby gets the chop, and Rogers inherits an unsightly Gadsden-to-Dothan district.  Since a Dixiecrat revival is now an impossibility, AL Republicans can sleep well keeping NWAL whole, as well.  Sewell's district is 61% Black by 2018 population and while her district sheds some D precincts around Birmingham due to expansion in the Black Belt, the JeffCo districts are split between Aderholt and Palmer to keep them both safe.

Hmmm... going by the 2017 and 2018 results it seems likely Madison County will eventually flip with the concentration of postgrads living there and the surrounding counties are also accumulating more D votes, though they were near unanimous R before.  I doubt that would be enough to flip the northern district anytime soon, but who knows?

That area is one where there are countervailing trends; Huntsville's growth is offset by the decline of the Tennessee Valley blue dogs, who voted D surprisingly late.

[morgieb]

In the event Trump wins, is it possible the Republicans go for 6-0?

[Nyvin]

In the event Trump wins, is it possible the Republicans go for 6-0?

That would be illegal.   AL-7 is a section 2 VRA district.  

Even with six districts you still easily need an AA majority seat.

[I’m not Stu]

6R-0D is an illegal racial gerrymander.

[Yellowhammer]

Alabama really deserves a 6R-0D map. VRA is racially discriminatory and an utter travesty.

[morgieb]

In the event Trump wins, is it possible the Republicans go for 6-0?

That would be illegal.   AL-7 is a section 2 VRA district.  

Even with six districts you still easily need an AA majority seat.

Right now yes. I meant more trying to challenge the VRA in court. It might not work but it could be worth a risk....

[voice_of_resistance]

Alabama really deserves a 6R-0D map. VRA is racially discriminatory and an utter travesty.

yeah, ok Jesse Helms. until whites stop bloc voting against blacks in the South to deny them political agency the VRA is needed. I'm a fan of you being a Dixiecrat most of the time but seriously this is a bad take

[Yellowhammer]

Alabama really deserves a 6R-0D map. VRA is racially discriminatory and an utter travesty.

yeah, ok Jesse Helms. until whites stop bloc voting against blacks in the South to deny them political agency the VRA is needed. I'm a fan of you being a Dixiecrat most of the time but seriously this is a bad take

Why should districts have to be drawn to satisfy an arbitrary racial quota? People are supposed to be treated equally before the law, regardless of their race. The VRA does the opposite.

[Brittain33]

Alabama really deserves a 6R-0D map. VRA is racially discriminatory and an utter travesty.

yeah, ok Jesse Helms. until whites stop bloc voting against blacks in the South to deny them political agency the VRA is needed. I'm a fan of you being a Dixiecrat most of the time but seriously this is a bad take

Why should districts have to be drawn to satisfy an arbitrary racial quota? People are supposed to be treated equally before the law, regardless of their race. The VRA does the opposite.

Because of the history of state-sponsored racial discrimination in Alabama, the Constitution guarantees African-Americans a say in government. A 6-0 Republican delegation in a state with high racial polarization despite a large African-American minority is an apartheid government. It’s not “equality before the law” when a majority denies the minority equal rights and then uses its majority to deny them any voice in legislation.

[lfromnj]

I mean Yh you can still clearly draw a D leaning district in the black belt in a 6 0 map. And the black belt +Montgomery is a very VALID COI

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, a pure 6-0 map would be an R gerrymander regardless. Not a particularly hard or ugly gerrymander, but still one. A fair non-VRA map for Alabama would probably look something like this?



AL-01: R+16 (35D-65R composite 2012-2016)
AL-02: R+3, 44% black (49D-51R composite 2012-2016)
AL-03: R+16 (36D-64R composite 2012-2016)
AL-04: R+31 (21D-79R composite 2012-2016)
AL-05: R+19, (33D-67R composite 2012-2016)
AL-06: R+4, 38% black, (47D-53R composite 2012-2016)

So basically you get a map that is 4 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 1 tossup/tilt R?

I wonder how many seats would Dems have won in 2018 under this map; District 2 in particular must be extremely polarized and inelastic. Plus I am sure you could easily move district 2 from tilt R to tilt D just by swapping a few places around; or to make the 6th easier for Dems to win by taking another of the suburban counties?

[lfromnj]

Yeah, a pure 6-0 map would be an R gerrymander regardless. Not a particularly hard or ugly gerrymander, but still one. A fair non-VRA map for Alabama would probably look something like this?



AL-01: R+16 (35D-65R composite 2012-2016)
AL-02: R+3, 44% black (49D-51R composite 2012-2016)
AL-03: R+16 (36D-64R composite 2012-2016)
AL-04: R+31 (21D-79R composite 2012-2016)
AL-05: R+19, (33D-67R composite 2012-2016)
AL-06: R+4, 38% black, (47D-53R composite 2012-2016)

So basically you get a map that is 4 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 1 tossup/tilt R?

I wonder how many seats would Dems have won in 2018 under this map; District 2 in particular must be extremely polarized and inelastic. Plus I am sure you could easily move district 2 from tilt R to tilt D just by swapping a few places around; or to make the 6th easier for Dems to win by taking another of the suburban counties?

Hmm my guess is that 2 could be won by Walt Maddox(mayor of Tuscaloosa if he ran). Other wise probably doesn't flip.
6 looks like a trump +4 ish district as Jefferson county swung D and so did Shelby where you removed the most exurban precints which may have swung R actually. Considering its relative depolarized voting for Alabama it could flip, Doug Jones if isn't AG in 2022 would be an almost certain lock for this seat.

[Kyng]

Alabama really deserves a 6R-0D map. VRA is racially discriminatory and an utter travesty.

As far as I'm concerned, if Alabama "deserves" a 6R-0D map, then California "deserves" a 53D-0R map.

(Of course, I would oppose California getting such a map - and I assume you would as well. But, if I'm correct in assuming that you wouldn't support a 53D-0R map in California, then perhaps you can understand why I don't support a 6R-0D map in Alabama)

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

[I’m not Stu]

What would a fair VRA map look like?

[Former President tack50]

What would a fair VRA map look like?

Bumping a dead thread to answer this question

IMO, this really depends on what you think the threshold for VRA compliance would be. In any case, this is a possible fair map that also tries to comply with the VRA



https://davesredistricting.org/join/8c0f7b60-7eff-42b7-b7e4-a2b4eda4af84

AL-01: R+18, 66R-34D composite
AL-02: D+5, 56D-44R composite (49% white, 45% black)
AL-03: R+2, 50R-50D composite (49% white, 46% black)
AL-04: R+21, 70R-30D composite
AL-05: R+18, 66R-34D composite
AL-06: R+34, 82R-18D composite

The 2nd district would be intended to be the VRA district. It is reasonably safe for the Democrats, although not completely safe. It is also 53% white by CVAP, but the white voters are just depolarized enough that hypothetically the black choice candidate would win? Not sure if this would pass

The 3rd district is intended as a black belt district that is competitive. It is so competitive in fact, that the 2012-2016 composite has it being won by the Republicans by only 35 votes. Elections here sure would be fun

If the 2nd district does not pass the VRA requirements, you can make it more black (and by extension more dem) by including more of the black belt, at the cost of making the 3rd less competitive.

4R-1D-1S looks fair to me.

[Idaho Conservative]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

[I’m not Stu]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

It might pass the Gingles test, but this Supreme Court will still not uphold such a map. Gingles isn’t the only test, or even the most recent case. Thomas and Gorsuch crossed over in the Virginia House of Delegates case last year. That map also has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

[Idaho Conservative]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

It might pass the Gingles test, but this Supreme Court will still not uphold such a map. Gingles isn’t the only test, or even the most recent case. Thomas and Gorsuch crossed over in the Virginia House of Delegates case last year. That map also has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

The Dem primary would be mainly black in that AL 2.  Very unlikely to elect a white dem. But of it did, he would be the black's candidate of choice.  Also, why did they strike down the VA map?  Because the districts weren't black enough?

[Storr]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

[Idaho Conservative]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.