2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama  (Read 47404 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #75 on: August 08, 2020, 09:18:01 PM »

Ok, here is my best attempt at doing a map that fulfills all of the following:

1) Has a black VRA seat
2) Has a compact Birmingham seat
3) Does not split Mobile

It is just barely possible, though the result is rather ugly (and the VRA district is still somewhat marginal, though it should be "good enough")



AL-01: R+18
AL-02: D+5 (51% Black CVAP)
AL-03: R+21
AL-04: R+34
AL-05: R+18
AL-06: R+4

So yeah, I suppose a map like that is just barely possible. It is also extremely ugly, in particular the 2 tentacles in the green district. And they are necessary in order to take the black areas outside the black belt (or at least, the less white areas)
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #76 on: August 08, 2020, 09:20:22 PM »

Ok, here is my best attempt at doing a map that fulfills all of the following:

1) Has a black VRA seat
2) Has a compact Birmingham seat
3) Does not split Mobile

It is just barely possible, though the result is rather ugly (and the VRA district is still somewhat marginal, though it should be "good enough")



AL-01: R+18
AL-02: D+5 (51% Black CVAP)
AL-03: R+21
AL-04: R+34
AL-05: R+18
AL-06: R+4

So yeah, I suppose a map like that is just barely possible. It is also extremely ugly, in particular the 2 tentacles in the green district. And they are necessary in order to take the black areas outside the black belt (or at least, the less white areas)
What痴 wrong with splitting Mobile? Large cities are easier to split because of their size.
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Sol
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« Reply #77 on: August 09, 2020, 11:09:49 AM »

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #78 on: August 09, 2020, 11:30:50 AM »

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?

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Sol
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« Reply #79 on: August 09, 2020, 03:40:32 PM »

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?



Yeah. Though also fair just in the general sense as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #80 on: August 09, 2020, 03:42:33 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2020, 04:01:37 PM by lfromnj »

Yeah, unfortunately the result of Alabama losing a seat is that splitting Birmingham becomes required in any fair map. Splitting Mobile is obviously way worse due to the water connection issues.

Well by fair as in VRA compliant map you mean right?



Yeah. Though also fair just in the general sense as well.

as in equal partisanship you mean while still respecting COI's?  although at that point you basically get into the what about Massachusetts arguments?)

 For example this is basically the reverse of taking a dip into Mobile/ Birmingham with scooping Worcester out from its suburbs to create a swingy central MA district. I obviously disagree with this as Worchester belongs with its region rather than a more Boston Suburban district.

Btw not saying anything about you, just having a discussion. Your maps are generally over all balanced, like your GA Map IIRC is slightly D tilting IMO but your Michigan map was very R leaning due to how you follow the VRA.
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Sol
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« Reply #81 on: August 09, 2020, 04:56:41 PM »

It's not so much the partisan balance part which is important to me; I think the issue is more that in a society as racially polarized as Alabama, making sure that the 25% or so of Black Alabamians have representation is important, particularly since there's a pretty strong history and present of racist oppression. Drawing a 4R 2D map where the two Democratic districts are potentially winnable by Republicans runs the risk of shutting Black Alabamians out of government.

Ofc the ideal electoral solution IMO is PR, but since that isn't too plausible rn I think VRA districts are necessary.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #82 on: August 09, 2020, 04:59:04 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2020, 05:04:52 PM by lfromnj »

It's not so much the partisan balance part which is important to me; I think the issue is more that in a society as racially polarized as Alabama, making sure that the 25% or so of Black Alabamians have representation is important, particularly since there's a pretty strong history and present of racist oppression. Drawing a 4R 2D map where the two Democratic districts are potentially winnable by Republicans runs the risk of shutting Black Alabamians out of government.

Ofc the ideal electoral solution IMO is PR, but since that isn't too plausible rn I think VRA districts are necessary.

Fair enough, I do agree the VRA probably does atleast extend here, I just don't like cases of the VRA where stuff like FL 5th happens or CA VRA rules. Obviously expanding the house could also help.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #83 on: August 10, 2020, 11:22:13 AM »

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #84 on: August 10, 2020, 11:26:35 AM »

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?

Same as the current one but Alabama 2 and 3 get mashed .
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #85 on: August 10, 2020, 11:33:28 AM »

What does a fair map with a VRA district look like?

Same as the current one but Alabama 2 and 3 get mashed .
Does that mean those GOP districts become more Democratic? The current map is a GOP gerrymander.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #86 on: December 28, 2020, 01:32:51 AM »

Given the most recent Census approximations, Alabama is likely to keep its 7th seat. In a fair map, a second Black VRA should probably be drawn, but the GOP will likely keep the current arrangement of just the one if possible.

 


Above is my map with 2 Black districts.
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« Reply #87 on: December 28, 2020, 02:10:49 AM »

Boo Alabama deserves no representation after kicked Jones out for Tuberville
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« Reply #88 on: December 28, 2020, 02:33:10 AM »

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kwabbit
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« Reply #89 on: December 28, 2020, 02:47:59 AM »

Better map than mine. Ceding some of the Western Black Belt section to the Birmingham -based district improves the look of the map quite a bit.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #90 on: December 28, 2020, 03:41:11 AM »

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #91 on: December 28, 2020, 06:56:56 AM »

If Alabama keeps its 7 districts, the most likely scenario is a "least change" map I'd say. Perhaps the 7th district (the VRA one) drops some of the black belt in favour of D trending Birmingham suburbs if those exist?:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/7fe8cbcd-64eb-437b-8df1-eb76d30f2788

I think all incumbents would live inside their districts in this map. The 2nd district here might arguably not look safe enough, but it's still 60-40 in the 2012/16 composite and R+11. If needed I guess Rs can use slightly worse lines to get it above 60% or whatever they think they need.

This map also probably doubles as a fair map to be honest, except in a fair map I imagine the boundaries of 2 and 3 would be moved around to be slightly less ugly.
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Sol
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« Reply #92 on: December 28, 2020, 10:20:38 AM »

You can drop the bulk of Tuscaloosa there, and gobble up more of the Black Belt/Montgomery instead. Tuscaloosa is still reliably Republican.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #93 on: December 28, 2020, 10:34:45 AM »

You can drop the bulk of Tuscaloosa there, and gobble up more of the Black Belt/Montgomery instead. Tuscaloosa is still reliably Republican.

Wouldn't that result in black packing? I guess it can still be avoided but still. I also didn't want to cut Tuscaloosa if I could avoid it; in order to still keep COIs to the extent that the VRA allows. (The non-VRA map would instead have a Birmingham district but that's obviously illegal)

Of course in an actual map I guess that would be likely to happen in order to make the 2nd district safer (not like it would matter much in practice); 60-40 and R+11 should still be plenty safe.
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« Reply #94 on: January 06, 2021, 12:18:06 PM »

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut
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Sol
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« Reply #95 on: January 06, 2021, 01:21:21 PM »

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut

If it happens after apportionment, they'd wait till 2030.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #96 on: January 06, 2021, 04:04:52 PM »

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut

If it happens after apportionment, they'd wait till 2030.
Perfectly possible that AL-07 doesn't happen regardless. Maybe a fluke happens and one state gets another seat, which in turn narrowly edges out Alabama.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #97 on: January 09, 2021, 02:44:22 AM »

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut
It's not a given congress will keep the number of representatives at 435 when adding states. Might be political incentives to increase it.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #98 on: January 09, 2021, 02:45:53 AM »

AL-07 still isn't safe. With DC statehood, #435 gets cut
It's not a given congress will keep the number of representatives at 435 when adding states. Might be political incentives to increase it.
Good point.
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Torie
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« Reply #99 on: February 03, 2021, 04:23:27 PM »

Assuming Alabama keeps its seven seats, and assuming further that the blue district is 50% BCVAP (it isn't quite, but the numbers are out of date and this is meant as a hypothetical), does the law require that one has to draw the blue CD under the VRA, or alternatively, and indeed maybe as a further requirement, given the hypothetical 50% BCVAP CD "VRA "trigger" is in play, a lower than 50% BCVAP CD that basically is Jefferson County, assuming it is black performing?

The issue is whether the  50% BCVAP VRA trigger happens with a hypothetically erose CD, that chops counties, with some white rural territory in between. It is not clear in my mind just where the "line" is drawn on such hypothetical CD triggers. It is a salient question, because Wasserman says the Dems plan to sue if they do not get two black performing CD's in a seven CD Alabama map.

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