2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama  (Read 47374 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #50 on: July 05, 2020, 03:22:39 PM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.
If you push Shelby into the Birmingham seat and swap some AA Jefferson precincts into the VRA district, that could mitigate the issue.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #51 on: July 05, 2020, 04:10:03 PM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.
If you push Shelby into the Birmingham seat and swap some AA Jefferson precincts into the VRA district, that could mitigate the issue.
But then Birmingham is split, like it is now.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #52 on: July 05, 2020, 04:39:13 PM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #53 on: July 05, 2020, 04:49:14 PM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.
If you push Shelby into the Birmingham seat and swap some AA Jefferson precincts into the VRA district, that could mitigate the issue.
But then Birmingham is split, like it is now.
Yep.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #54 on: July 05, 2020, 05:49:24 PM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce
not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #55 on: July 06, 2020, 03:08:21 AM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce
not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham

D+6 versus D+2. Do you ever argue in good faith?
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #56 on: July 06, 2020, 03:45:30 AM »

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.
If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce
not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham

D+6 versus D+2. Do you ever argue in good faith?
both lean/likely.  Do you ever argue in good faith?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #57 on: July 06, 2020, 10:25:20 AM »

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #58 on: July 06, 2020, 01:08:40 PM »

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.
FL-26......
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #59 on: July 06, 2020, 03:12:28 PM »

I think if you want to argue that the electoral behaviour of Miami Cubans is comparable to that of black Alabamans, I may take you exactly as seriously as I did before.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #60 on: July 06, 2020, 03:12:50 PM »

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.
FL-26......
Carlos Curbelo is a good example. He was able to win because he's more moderate. Lauren Boebert can't win in a D+6 district, but might win in R+6 CO-03.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #61 on: July 06, 2020, 03:21:33 PM »

I think if you want to argue that the electoral behaviour of Miami Cubans is comparable to that of black Alabamans, I may take you exactly as seriously as I did before.
Non-whites turn out less in midterms. 
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tschandler
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« Reply #62 on: August 04, 2020, 09:03:47 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #63 on: August 04, 2020, 09:06:42 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.
Roy Moore (R-Gadsden).
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tschandler
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« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2020, 09:19:00 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.
Roy Moore (R-Gadsden).

Seriously
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #65 on: August 06, 2020, 12:56:09 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #66 on: August 06, 2020, 12:58:34 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #67 on: August 06, 2020, 01:01:31 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #68 on: August 06, 2020, 01:12:59 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?
Because Republicans draw the lines.  If the courts don't require 2 on a 7 district map, they wouldn't on a 6 district map
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lfromnj
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« Reply #69 on: August 06, 2020, 01:15:17 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #70 on: August 06, 2020, 01:21:45 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.
Birmingham and Mobile are large cities. Large cities are easier to split.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #71 on: August 06, 2020, 01:25:00 PM »

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.
Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

No lol, you have to split Birmingham and Mobile.
Birmingham and Mobile are large cities. Large cities are easier to split.

Yet both areas have a metro that mostly form 1 district.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #72 on: August 08, 2020, 06:27:58 PM »

Infact as me and tack showed It isn't really possible for a reasonable compact map to have 1 VRA seat. However a VRA seat is still required in Alabama but its absurd to call an arm into Birmingham a gerrymander but then demand it should go into Mobile.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #73 on: August 08, 2020, 06:57:54 PM »

D+2 with barely over 50% AA is illegal.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #74 on: August 08, 2020, 08:55:48 PM »

Infact as me and tack showed It isn't really possible for a reasonable compact map to have 1 VRA seat. However a VRA seat is still required in Alabama but its absurd to call an arm into Birmingham a gerrymander but then demand it should go into Mobile.

On paper I suppose you could do an arm into Mobile for the VRA seat (making it safe D), then a swingy Birmingham seat like the one I drew.

But I suppose that is probably a Dem gerrymander (Though I think you could do 2 safe D seats, so it isn't even a good D gerrymander)
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