When will South Carolina vote D?

[iceman]

South Carolina seems to be stable for now.

[Catalyst138]

Beyond 2028.

Among the safe R states, it's not THAT red (it was only Trump +14 and Obama +10) but the problem is that it isn't swinging blue. The white electorate is stubbornly R, and the black population isn't really growing (it's actually decreased for most of the past century).

Maybe if a black candidate really gets out the vote they could lose within 5 points in a semi-landslide, but in terms of actually winning it's very unlikely. It's still close enough to have the possibility of turning competitive in like 30 years though, so I wouldn't say never.

[Nyvin]

Probably never with the current alignment of the parties.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Probably never with the current alignment of the parties.   

If SC does go blue, it'll be due to northern transplants, specifically young northern transplants.
Problem is that SC gets a ton of MW retirees (the sort of non-native Southerner who votes R more often than not) and not much of the former.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, all the money they keep spending on Harrison, Graham is likely to be reelected

[brucejoel99]

Within 50 years, but certainly beyond 2028 nonetheless.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Not until one or 2 cycles after Mississippi goes, which I think will be in 2036 roughly.  (maybe 32 in a big D landslide).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was looking at blue Dems, Dems are putting money into the race against Lindsey Graham, Harrison will have a competetive race, after all

[OneJ]

Not until one or 2 cycles after Mississippi goes, which I think will be in 2036 roughly.  (maybe 32 in a big D landslide).

Yeah at this point South Carolina flips after Mississippi.

[iceman]

Why does everyone think that Mississippi would be trending to D? It is the most inelastic state in the nation and I highly doubt that the black population would outnumber the whites there in the next 2 decades, nor liberals from the northeast or college-grads would move there for work opportunities for the state to trend significantly democrat.

[ElectionsGuy]

If and when Dems gain the presidency on a wave election like 2008, I can see South Carolina falling barely into the Democrats' hands. Other than that, probably won't happen.

Why does everyone think that Mississippi would be trending to D? It is the most inelastic state in the nation and I highly doubt that the black population would outnumber the whites there in the next 2 decades, nor liberals from the northeast or college-grads would move there for work opportunities for the state to trend significantly democrat.

Every state is trending Democrat. It's only a matter of time until eventually every state will vote Dem, the question is when.

[The Ex-Factor]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the idea is that young whites in Mississippi are a bit less Republican than the 65+ crowd. All it takes is a little decrease in white vote margins, plus population growth from the black and Latino population for Missisippi to become a swing state in 10+ years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harrison has an excellent chance to beat Graham in a wave

[Grassroots]

It won't. Isn't the black population decreasing?

[iceman]

It won't. Isn't the black population decreasing?

It's not actually decreasing, it's just that the non-black population is growing exponentially in the recent years, specifically in the GOP stronghold of Horry county.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't. Isn't the black population decreasing?

Graham may lose to Harrison, due to fact Tim Scott is Senator

[TML]

In order for Democrats to be competitive in SC, they need to make serious inroads in the Upstate section - this area is the most populous and the fastest growing region of the state, and it routinely votes over 60% R in statewide elections.